Game # 155: Yanks (86-68) vs BJs (72-83)

 

Season series: Yanks 7, BJs 8

Magic Numbers:
     Division: 12 (for a tie)
     Home Advantage WC: 3
     Wild Card: Clinched

Holliday Out. Sanchez out. Romine squats a day game after an afternoon game. Bird still flying.

Still on the Judge watch for HRs. Can Bird fly again? Can Garcia be a K machine again? Will a baldy hit another HR this season? Can Judge catch Headley in SBs? Can DD pad his SS HR crown?

Yanks

Gardner, LF
Headley, DH
Judge, RF
Gregorius, SS
Castro, 2B
Ellsbury, CF
T. Frazier, 3B
Bird, 1B
Romine, C
Garcia, P

BJs

Hernandez, LF
Donaldson, 3B
Smoak, 1B
Bautista, RF
Morales, DH
Pillar, CF
Martin, C
Barney, 2B
Goins, SS
Storman, P
 

Game on YES.

 

Game # 154: Yanks (85-68) vs BJs (72-82)

Season series: Yanks 6, BJs 8

Magic Numbers:
     Division: 13 (for a tie)
     Home Advantage WC: 4
     Wild Card: 1

Yanks need to win these last two games in the frozen north in order to have a winning road record.

Can Judge close in on rookie HR record? Can Gray rebound? Can the Yanks score runs for Gray?

Gardy's back in. Bird returns. Sanchez squats an afternoon game after a night game. Holliday Out. Castro dropped to 7th in order.

Yanks

  1. LF: Brett Gardner
  2. RF: Aaron Judge
  3. C: Gary Sanchez
  4. SS: Didi Gregorius
  5. DH: Chase Headley
  6. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
  7. 2B: Starlin Castro
  8. 1B: Greg Bird
  9. 3B: Todd Frazier
  10. SP: Sonny Gray

BJs

  1. LF: Teoscar Hernandez
  2. 3B: Josh Donaldson
  3. 1B: Justin Smoak
  4. RF: Jose Bautista
  5. DH: Kendrys Morales
  6. CF: Kevin Pillar
  7. SS: Ryan Goins
  8. 2B: Darwin Barney
  9. C: Rafael Lopez
  10. SP: Joe Biagini

Game on YES and MLBN.

Game # 153: Yanks (85-67) vs BJs (71-82)

Season series: Yanks 6, BJs 7

Magic Numbers:
     Division: 13 (for a tie)
     Home Advantage WC: 3
     Wild Card: 2

Gardy out. Holliday Inn (looks like they're trying to get him playoff ready). C-Fraz in. Headley at 1B. Bird out.

Can the Yanks pull even in the season series? Can the full-Frazier beat the BJs?

Yankees

  1. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
  2. RF: Aaron Judge
  3. C: Gary Sanchez
  4. SS: Didi Gregorius
  5. 2B: Starlin Castro
  6. DH: Matt Holliday
  7. 1B: Chase Headley
  8. 3B: Todd Frazier
  9. LF: Clint Frazier
  10. SP: Masahiro Tanaka

Blue Jays

  1. LF: Teoscar Hernandez
  2. 3B: Josh Donaldson
  3. 1B: Justin Smoak
  4. RF: Jose Bautista
  5. CF: Kevin Pillar
  6. C: Russell Martin
  7. DH: Miguel Montero
  8. 2B: Darwin Barney
  9. SS: Ryan Goins
  10. SP: Marco Estrada

Game on YES, NO. It's WPIX!

 

The Yankees' postseason odds and the effect of the Wild Card game

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In the last couple of weeks, the Yankees have played quite well. It's gotten them some recognition as a potentially dangerous team in October, with it's solid rotation front three, an overpowering bullpen, and a deep lineup. The recent headlines certainly allow for some excitement about a potential World Series run. A sample of a few: Here's why the Yankees are better than you think they are, Yankees have the right formula to beat the Indians in October, and No One Will Want to Face These Yankees. That's a lot of high praise for a team likely destined for a Wild Card game in which the odds of winning won't be much better than a coin flip.

There's no question that the Yankees should win the Wild Card game, assuming they can't make up Boston's three game division lead in the season's final ten games. Of the teams battling for the second Wild Card spot, all are inferior to the Yankees. There's no need to look much further than the standings to prove that, as the Yankees currently stand seven games up on the Twins, who are holding on to that last playoff spot. That being said, the Yankees being favored doesn't make them a shoe-in, and that's frustrating. Weird things can happen in a single baseball game. In this postseason structure, winning the division is emphasized, and the Yankees will probably have to take on the risk of the Wild Card game because of it.

Despite all of the glowing articles about the Yankees being a dangerous postseason team, the club's chances of winning the World Series are slim. That doesn't mean the pieces penned about the team's postseason potential are wrong, of course. The Yankees are unquestionably a very good team. It's just that a little bit of bad luck could get in the way in the first game of the playoffs, hence the Yankees' likelihood of winning the World Series at 5.4% per Fangraphs' Playoff Odds page. According My Top Sportsbooks, the Yankees' championship odds are at 12/1, or about 7.7%, and most online sportsbooks have them at 14/1, or about 6.7%..

Depending on where you look, the Yankees have somewhere between a 5% and 8% chance of hoisting the franchise's 28th title. That's pretty low, and understandably so. Clearly, the risk of playing in the Wild Card game has been priced in to the odds. Though facing Cleveland or Houston in a five game series is unquestionably a tall task thereafter, it'd feel like a fairer fight. To get there, the Yankees will have to come out on the positive side of the Wild Card game that could be full of surprises. Should the Yankees do that, the odds of making a deep October run will be much more in the team's favor.

Game # 152: Twins (78-73) vs Yanks (84-67)

Season series: Yanks 3, Twins 2

Magic Numbers:
     Division: 14
     Home Advantage WC: 6
     Wild Card: 5

Holliday Inn. All the rest is the same.

Twins

Dozier, 2B
Mauer, DH
Polanco, SS
Rosario, LF
Buston, CF
Kepler, RF
Escobar, 3B
Vargas, 1B
Castro, C
Colon, P

Yanks

Gardner, LF
Judge, RF
Sanchez, C
Gregorius, SS
Castro, 2B
Holliday, DH
Ellsbury, CF
T. Frazier, 3B
Bird, 1B
Severino. P

Game on YES and ESPN.

Game # 151: Twins (78-72) vs Yanks (83-67)

Season series: Yanks 2, Twins 2

Magic Numbers:
     Division: 15
     Home Advantage WC: 8
     Wild Card: 7

Same players as the ones that scored two runs yesterday! They WILL improve on that.

Can Judge get back to his twin homers/game mode? Can Bird let twins fly? Can Sanchez throw out twin Twins? Can the Yanks score four twin runs (and get to the fuster 8)? Can D-Bets throw strikes again?

Twins

  1. 2B: Brian Dozier
  2. 1B: Joe Mauer
  3. SS: Jorge Polanco
  4. 3B: Eduardo Escobar
  5. CF: Byron Buxton
  6. LF: Eddie Rosario
  7. DH: Robbie Grossman
  8. C: Chris Gimenez
  9. RF: Max Kepler
  10. SP: Jose Berrios

Yanks

  1. LF: Brett Gardner
  2. RF: Aaron Judge
  3. C: Gary Sanchez
  4. SS: Didi Gregorius
  5. DH: Chase Headley
  6. 2B: Starlin Castro
  7. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
  8. 3B: Todd Frazier
  9. 1B: Greg Bird
  10. SP: CC Sabathia

Game on YES and ESPN.

Game # 150: Twins (78-71) vs Yanks (82-67)

Season series: Yanks 1, Twins 2

Magic Numbers:
     Division: 16
     Home Advantage WC: 10
     Wild Card: 8

C-Fraz sits. Garcia pitches???!!!!

Can the Yanks make the Twins see double? Can Garcia go 5 innings? Can DD do it again??!! Castro catching and playing second. Will Bird fly again? Is it time for Judge to hit 2 HRs again?

Twins

Dozier, 2B
Mauer, 1B
Buxton, CF
Polanco, SS
Rosario, RF
Escobar, 3B
Grossman, DH
Castro, C
Adrianza, LF
Santana, P

Yanks

  1. LF: Brett Gardner
  2. RF: Aaron Judge
  3. C: Gary Sanchez
  4. SS: Didi Gregorius
  5. DH: Chase Headley
  6. 2B: Starlin Castro
  7. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
  8. 3B: Todd Frazier
  9. 1B: Greg Bird
  10. SP: Jaime Garcia

Game on YES and MLBN.

Game # 149: Oreos (72-77) vs Yanks (82-66)

Season Series; Yanks 12, Oreos 6

Magic Numbers
     Division: 17
     Home Advantage WC: 10
     Wild Card: 9

T & C back-to-back in the lineup. Ells and Headley benched for hitting too well. It's Gray with a chance of ground balls.

Can the Yanks win without Ells & Headley? Can the Yanks score runs for Gray? Can Gray bring his effective anti-air force style? Can Bird hit in a game after he homered?

Oreos

Beckhman, SS
Machado, 3B
Schoop, 2B
Mancini, LF
Davis, 1B
Smith, RF
Trumbo, DH
Hays, CF
Joseph, C
Jimenez, P

Yanks

Gardner, CF
Judge, RF
Sanchez, C
Gregorius, SS
Castro, 2B
Holliday, DH
Bird, 1B
T. Frazier, 3B
C. Frazier, LF
Gray, P

Game on YES

Game # 148: Oreos (72-76) vs Yanks (81-66)

Season Series: Yanks 11, Oreos 7

Magic Numbers:
   To win Division: 18
   Wild Card: 12
   Home Wild Card: 10

Holliday sits. Sanchez sits. Romine squats. Only one Frazier and it's T. Since Romine is catching Monty is his personal pitcher. Bird NOT benched after hitting HR????!!!

Can Monty return to form? Can Bird repeat? (or is it re-bird?) Can the Yanks stay hot?

Oreos

  1. DH: Tim Beckham
  2. 3B: Manny Machado
  3. 2B: Jonathan Schoop
  4. CF: Adam Jones
  5. 1B: Trey Mancini
  6. C: Welington Castillo
  7. SS: J.J. Hardy
  8. RF: Austin Hays
  9. LF: Joey Rickard
  10. SP: Jeremy Hellickson

Yanks

  1. LF: Brett Gardner
  2. DH: Chase Headley
  3. RF: Aaron Judge
  4. SS: Didi Gregorius
  5. 2B: Starlin Castro
  6. CF: Jacoby Ellsbury
  7. 3B: Todd Frazier
  8. 1B: Greg Bird
  9. C: Austin Romine
  10. SP: Jordan Montgomery

Game on YES.