Game # 98: Reds (41-58) vs Yanks (51-46)

Can the Yanks continue their hot streak? Can they take advantage of the Reds? Can Monty bounce back?

Sanchez sits. Ells continues sitting. Torreyes sits. Romine in. Wade in. Yanks at full Frazier strength.

Reds

  1. CF: Billy Hamilton
  2. 3B: Eugenio Suarez
  3. 1B: Joey Votto
  4. DH: Adam Duvall
  5. LF: Patrick Kivlehan
  6. C: Devin Mesoraco
  7. RF: Scott Schebler
  8. SS: Jose Peraza
  9. 2B: Arismendy Alcantara
  10. SP: Luis Castillo

Yankees

  1. CF: Brett Gardner
  2. LF: Clint Frazier
  3. RF: Aaron Judge
  4. DH: Matt Holliday
  5. SS: Didi Gregorius
  6. 1B: Chase Headley
  7. 3B: Todd Frazier
  8. 2B: Tyler Wade
  9. C: Austin Romine
  10. SP: Jordan Montgomery

Game on YES.

 

 

How (the lack of) pop-ups have helped Aaron Judge mitigate his strikeout problem

Aaron Judge's propensity to strikeout has been his biggest drawback as a player, and could continue to be for the rest of his career. Can't have it all, I guess. Given his size, no player is required to cover as large of a strike zone as Judge must. Perhaps he'll improve a few ticks as his career progresses, but it's hard to imagine him ever running an average strikeout rate. This year, he's gone down on strikes at a 30.1% clip, which though is far from ideal, has been more than tolerable given Judge's production otherwise. Though that rate sounds high, Judge has done something exceptionally well to mitigate it: he's made quality contact when putting the bat on the ball. In particular, Judge rarely hits infield pop-ups, something that's essentially the equivalent of a strikeout.

Strikeouts and pop-ups are incredibly similar. Both are easily recorded outs on which baserunners rarely advance. Infielders rarely botch pop flies, and on strikeouts, runners infrequently move up on wild pitches or passed balls. Considering the aforementioned, it's reasonable to say that a pop fly is just as bad as a strikeout. Although Judge has struck out in 30.1% of his plate appearances, he's only popped up twice all year, or 0.5% of his trips to the plate. Simple math shows that Judge has struck out or popped up 30.6% of the time this season (let's call it easy out rate, or EO%).

Major league hitters (pitchers excluded) have a 23.4% EO-rate this season, meaning that Judge's 30.6% mark is still 7.2% higher than the league. However, that's an improvement from the 9.0% difference between Judge's strikeout rate (30.1%) as compared to the league's (21.1%). Of hitters with 200 plate appearances or more (265 players qualified), only 12 hit pop flies less often than Judge. In other words, Judge has made up some of the ground he's lost from striking out by not popping up frequently. Judge's K% is 20th-worst in baseball whereas his EO% is 27th-worst (both min. 200 PA). That's still not great, but it's a better picture of how Judge truly stacks up. Look, Judge could (obviously) still stand to put the ball in play more often. Hopefully that gets better with time. Regardless, had he hit infield fly balls at a league average rate, he'd have cost himself seven or eight additional outs this season. I know it doesn't sound like much, but it certainly makes it easier to deal with the times he goes down on strikes.

Let's look at it from another perspective. Todd Frazier, one of the newest Yankees, has struck out at practically a league average clip (21.2%). However, he pops up more than twice as often as the rest of baseball, at 5.4%. That brings his EO% up to an above average 26.6% (again, league is 23.4%). Using Frazier as an example shows that though a batter's strikeout rate can tell us a lot, it can be a tad misleading. Frazier, who's strikeout rate is ho-hum and wouldn't raise any eyebrows, actually has been retired easier than it seems once his pop-up rate is considered.

Although Judge's strikeout rate is bad, it's not telling the whole story. No, his low pop fly rate won't save him, but it's unquestionably a helpful way to alleviate some of the contact concerns. Essentially, Judge has earned seven or eight additional plate appearances thanks to his ability to square up the ball when making contact. It doesn't sound like much, but it's certainly beneficial.

EO% Leaderboard thru 7/23/17, created via Fangraphs

Game # 97: Yankees (50-46) vs Ms (49-50)

Series Watch: 0-8-2 This series: 2-1

If the Yankees are to break that series drought they'll do it behind Caleb Smith in his first MLB start. Ells is getting splinters in his butt!! (YEAH!) Desperate for offense, Sanchez squats a day after a night game -- and bats clean up. Not Webb Wade gets the start at 2nd.

Yankees

Gardner, CF
C. Frazier, LF
Judge, RF
Sanchez, C
Holliday, DH
Gregorius, SS
Headley, 1B
T. Frazier, 3B
Wade, 2B
Smith, P

Ms

Segura, SS
Valencia, 1B
Cano, 2B
Cruz, DH
Seager, 3B
Haniger, RF
Gamel, LF
Herridia, CF
Ruiz, C
Gallardo, P

Game on YES and MLBN

Game # 96: Yanks (50-45) vs Mariners (48-50)

Series Watch: 0-8-2. This series, Yanks up 2-0 and on the verge of breaking that streak.

Headley sits. Castro sits. And for a 2nd straight game, Ells sits! Could this a trend? An answer to prayers? Cooper in. Torreyes in.  Yanks at full Frazier strength.

Has StatCast been recalibrated to fit Aaron Judge? Will the Mariners close the dome to prevent Judge from doing what he did last night?

Yankees

  1. CF: Brett Gardner
  2. LF: Clint Frazier
  3. RF: Aaron Judge
  4. DH: Matt Holliday
  5. C: Gary Sanchez
  6. SS: Didi Gregorius
  7. 3B: Todd Frazier
  8. 1B: Garrett Cooper
  9. 2B: Ronald Torreyes
  10. SP: Masahiro Tanaka

Mariners

  1. SS: Jean Segura
  2. LF: Ben Gamel
  3. 2B: Robinson Cano
  4. DH: Nelson Cruz
  5. 3B: Kyle Seager
  6. 1B: Danny Valencia
  7. RF: Mitch Haniger
  8. CF: Jarrod Dyson
  9. C: Mike Zunino
  10. SP: Ariel Miranda

Game on YES.

Gamne # 95: Yanks (49-45) vs Mariners (48-49)

Series Watch: 0-8-2.    Yanks look to go up 2-0 in this series.

The original Yankee Frazier returns to the lineup replacing the ever slumping Ells. Everyone else as expected.

Yankees

  1. CF: Brett Gardner
  2. C: Gary Sanchez
  3. RF: Aaron Judge
  4. DH: Matt Holliday
  5. 2B: Starlin Castro
  6. SS: Didi Gregorius
  7. 3B: Todd Frazier
  8. 1B: Chase Headley
  9. LF: Clint Frazier
  10. SP: CC Sabathia

Mariners

  1. SS: Jean Segura
  2. 1B: Danny Valencia
  3. 2B: Robinson Cano
  4. DH: Nelson Cruz
  5. 3B: Kyle Seager
  6. RF: Mitch Haniger
  7. CF: Guillermo Heredia
  8. LF: Ben Gamel
  9. C: Mike Zunino
  10. SP: Andrew Moore

Game on YES.

 

Game # 94: Yanks (48-45) vs Mariners (48-48)

The Yanks new 1Bman makes his debut tonight -- Chase Headley.  Yanks at only half Frazier strength as Clint sits. Judge back in lineup.

Yanks start fresh in an attempt to finally win a series.

Yanks

Garnder, LF
Sanchez, C
Judge, RF
Holliday, DH
Castro, 2B
Gregorius, SS
Frazier, 3B
Ellsbury, CF
Headley, 1B
Severino, P

Mariners

Segura, SS
Gamel, LF
Cano, 2B
Cruz, DH
Seager, 3B
Valencia, 1B
Haniger, RF
Dyson, CF
Zunino, C
Hernandez, P

Game on YES and MLBN
 

Game # 93: Yankees (48-44) vs Minnesota (47-46)

Once again the Yankees have a chance (not Adams) to break a long series losing and non-winning streak.

Choi and Refs are DFA'd. Shreve sent to minors.

Judge gets day off. Holliday gets a holiday. Sanchez at DH. Torreyes in for Headley.

I'm sorry (the hell I am) but this lineup makes no sense to. Why is Todd Frazier not playing?

Yankees

Gardner, LF
Ellsbury. RF
Sanchez, DH
Castro, 2B
Gregorius, SS
C. Frazier, RF
Cooper, 1B
Romine, C
Torreyes, 3B
Montgomery, P

Milwaukee

  1. 2B: Brian Dozier
  2. 3B: Eduardo Escobar
  3. 1B: Miguel Sano
  4. LF: Robbie Grossman
  5. RF: Max Kepler
  6. C: Chris Gimenez
  7. SS: Ehire Adrianza
  8. DH: Jorge Polanco
  9. CF: Zack Granite
  10. SP: Jose Berrios

Game on YES.

Deal is done: Yankees get Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle from White Sox

There you have it. EJ posted the report of the deal nearing the finish line earlier, and now we know what it cost the Yankees. Blake Rutherford, Ian Clarkin, Tito Polo, and Tyler Clippard will join the White Sox organization in exchange for Todd Frazier, David Robertson, and Tommy Kahnle.

This trade kills two birds with one stone: Frazier is a boost at first base (and can chip in at third, too), while Robertson and Kahnle are much needed help in the bullpen. The cost was fairly steep, but the 2017 Yankees are unquestionably better for it. Check back for further analysis of the detail tomorrow.