Getting to Sheets' price the hard way

I started reading this one from TheHardballTimes, and it brought me back to my stats classes back in undergrad pretty quickly. Let’s just say that if you are not a fan of these “new fangled stats” such as WAR and PECOTA projections, and have no idea if a risk-adverse curve is concave or convex, just skip it.

However, if you want to check out a very thoughtful and unemotional analysis to player values and how they project to free agent prices, definitely go read it.

So what should Sheets get on the free agent market? Well, the risk seeking team in this example values Sheets as a 3.2 WAR player, which would be worth about $16 million for a one year contract. Using Tom Tango’s salary scale, Sheets should get around a four- or five-year contract for $55 of $65 million, assuming a team doesn’t sign him for over five years.

Of course, emotions ARE a major part of these things and who knows which skittish owner/GM, having missed out on the other free agent pitchers, decides to overbid for fear of doing nothing? I’d add the “OS” variable into their equations, which relates to the “oh sh*t” factor. An “OS” of more than 6.35 indicates a likelihood to overpay beyond rational boundaries. [Note: If the Yanks are indeed involved, the “OS” is pegged at 8.24 automatically as a starting point.] Continue reading Getting to Sheets' price the hard way

Hank's in charge; staff of piss-ants; drives a Dodge Stratus

The Mouth That Roars is at it again, telling everyone that he’s still in charge. To me, it’s like the old analogy: if you have to call yourself a rebel, you’re not a rebel. Or something like that.

“The most important thing to remember is this: If you didn’t get it from me or my brother [Hal], it doesn’t mean [anything]. I don’t care about some piss-ant employee. If you don’t get it from me or Hal, it’s meaningless. I have a lot of things [in Tampa] and Hal is in New York, which is good.”

I just love it when the leader of an organization, ANY company or organization, calls anyone below him piss-ant. Way to boost morale, you obnoxious thug wanna-be. I’d kill to work in a front office of a MLB team but I don’t know if I would be able to handle working for this no-talent ass-clown who runs my favorite team. Talk about no respect for the hard-working people working for you…. That’s just crap.
Of course, Hank has no problem letting everyone know how much he second guessed the Johan situation, either:
I should have pushed harder for the [Johan] Santana deal,” said Hank, who was talked out of signing Santana by Hal and GM Brian Cashman because they believed the Yankees’ talent (Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera) and the money (Santana signed a six-year, $137.5 million extension with the Mets) was too costly.

You know what, I still think the Yanks made the right long term decision, though it sure hurt this year. The strategy can’t be abandoned that quickly without giving it a chance to develop.

On the other hand, this Hank rant totally reminded me of the great SNL skit where Will Farrell rants at the dinner table.
You do not talk to me like that!! I work too hard to deal with this stuff!! I work too hard!! I’m a Division Manager in charge of 49 people!! I drive a Dodge Stratus!!
……
You do not talk to your father that way!! I am a Division Manager!! I can do 100 push-ups in twenty minutes!!

Continue reading Hank's in charge; staff of piss-ants; drives a Dodge Stratus

Frank Torre nails Hank

When I read the headline “Torre’s brother: What Yanks did to Joe ‘was not right’“, I was prepared to read some whiny, griping story showing one brother sticking up for another. And to a point, that’s what this is. But what made it more interesting to me was the way Frank nails Hank directly and without fear of reprisal:

What really disturbs Frank Torre is not so much the Yankees didn’t want his brother back, but the way they’ve acted since his departure.

“I hear (Yankees co-chairman) Hank Steinbrenner say where would Joe Torre be without the Yankees,” Frank Torre said. “Well, let me tell you, Hank Steinbrenner was fortunate he was born in the Steinbrenner family. His inheritance is a whole lot bigger now than it would have been if not for my brother. I think he gained a lot more money than my brother after all of those World Series.”

Well said, sir. Born on third base, thought he hit a triple. Such is Hank. Continue reading Frank Torre nails Hank

Testing Cashman's love for Hughes

The guys at WasWatching took a look at a possible Peavy trade and following the blockquote, they noted that:

Well, first of all, Brian Cashman I believe would never do that. Cashman would rather stand completely nude in the middle of Times Square during rush hour and sing Touch Me In The Morning than consider the notion of trading Phil Hughes.

I wonder if that’s really true. I know Cashman (and others in the “brain trust”) really believe in Hughes but at what point do you look at it objectively and ask: “Will Hughes become Peavy?” If they really only think he’ll progress to a #2 or #3, then they must realize that Peavy is already Peavy.

They then noted the obvious next question: “Why didn’t you offer Hughes and Cano for Johan Santana last year?” The answer to that is that Johan required a six year deal worth about $140 million, plus Hughes and others. And, if you remember back then, there was a bit of concern about Johan’s decreased velocity in 2007 and a very real fear that he was beginning a decline. Turns out, that decline was overstated, at least for 2008.

Peavy is younger and has a more “reasonable” contract, even if the Yanks must guarantee the option year worth $22 million. He’s a bulldog, not a finesse guy, and that will play well in New York. There are very few opportunities to get a bonafide number one ace and I don’t think the Yanks should let this opportunity go by the wayside.

You can bet I will be watching this one closely. Continue reading Testing Cashman's love for Hughes

Boras is only about the money 30% of the time

…and the other 70% is what exactly? Thanks to Craig at Shysterball for the link, helping me get thru a nasty chest/head cold. (emphasis mine)

Reflecting on the criticism, Boras said: “I only get the negativity because it’s written so much, about here he goes again doing something different, it’s always about money. Seventy percent of what we do is not about money; it’s about advancing players and getting players to be better.

“When I have families come in when we represent the premium people in the draft and they look at me – mothers, fathers, players – and thank me for what you do,” Boras said, adding that the criticism did not bother him. And certainly not, he said, when the criticism is coming from “a writer who is without the facts.”

I’m hardly a writer and I am often without facts, but I have a pair of eyes (long since corrected by laser surgery) that can see what I believe to be true. Boras is an advocate for his clients and that’s his role. I know his firm spends a ton of money on training and testing and getting his stable ready to play, which is key. But, the truth is, he out-maneuvers many GM’s by installing these opt-outs and player options. He is probably the best at what he does: getting the most money for his clients.

And it IS about the money. Right?

The article did have the interesting graphic (to the upper right) highlighting Boras’ clients in this post-season alone. At what point does he effectively control one club?

Continue reading Boras is only about the money 30% of the time

How the economy is affecting sports and the fan

The good folks over at SI.com have a very solid tome on the topic. It’s lengthy but worth the read:

I’m not affluent — I mean, I do fine — but at what cost do I want to see these games?” [A fan] says. “At some point, do I want to put that money toward something else? …. And what they’re doing is pricing out the people who really care if the team wins or loses.”

Continue reading How the economy is affecting sports and the fan

Impervious to pain

Remember all that discussion about the impact of the numerous financial crises on the game and specifically the impact on the Yanks? Yeah, well, um….not so much.

The Yankees are said to want to sign two out of three starting pitchers they’re coveting — CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe. Sabathia is, of course, their No. 1 target. But Yankees players seem to love the idea of signing Burnett, a pitcher who has dominated them.

Some baseball people say the crashing U.S. economy could give the Yankees an even greater advantage in this free-agent season. Some other teams may be affected by baseball’s debt rule that limits spending for teams with significant debt, and some owners may be affected by plummeting stock prices and hurting businesses. Meanwhile, the Yankees’ revenues are expected to jump by a few hundred million from an already sport-high $400 million.

Continue reading Impervious to pain