In 1997, Vlad plays 90 games for Montreal, hitting 11 HR while stealing 3 with a .302 BA. Good enough for 6th in ROY voting. Not bad. Age 22.
In 1998, Vlad officially arrives on the scene, playing in 159 games at the age of 23. He hits 38 home runs, steals 11, bats .324 while scoring 108 and knocking in 109.
In 1999, Vlad earns his first All Star appearance, wins his first Silver Slugger for putting up this line: 160 games, 42 home runs, 14 SB, .316 BA, 102 runs, 131 RBI. Age 24.
In 2000, he kept on keepin’ on. Forty-four home runs, 9 SB, .345 BA, 101 runs and 123 RBI in 154 games. All Star, Silver Slugger. Age 25.
2001: 159 games, 34 home runs but turns on the speed for 37 SB (but caught 16 times), an impressive 30/30 campaign. Also hit .307, 107 runs, 108 RBI. All Star. Age 26.
2002: A behemoth year: nearly 40/40 as he hits 39 home runs while stealing 40 (and caught 20 times). Hits .336 with 106 runs and 111 RBI in 161 games. All Star. Age 27 (the magical peak age).
2003: Only 112 games, lowest since 1997. Hits 25 home runs while stealing just 9, 71 runs and 79 RBI with .330 BA. Age 28.
2004: First year in Anaheim, onto real grass. Plays 156 games, hits 39 home runs and steals 15. Scores a league leading 124 runs while driving in 126. Finishes with a .337 BA. Wins MVP. All Star, Silver Slugger. Age 29.
2005: Enjoying California, plays in 141 games, hits 32 home runs, drives in 108, scores 95, steals only 13. Hits .317 BA. Third in MVP voting. All Star, Silver Slugger. Age 30.
2006: Not slowing down yet. Hits 33 home runs, drives in 116, scores 92, steals 15. Hits .329 in 156 games. All Star, Silver Slugger. Age 31.
2007: Still no signs of age, other than the steals effectively stopping. Anecdotally, the sight Vlad running begins to look painful. Still manages to bat .324 with 27 home runs and knock in 125, scoring 89, playing in 150 games. Two SB. Third in MVP voting. All Star, Silver Slugger. Age 32.
2008: In 143 games, Vlad hits .303 (believe it or not, lowest since 1997!) and cranks out 27 more home runs, 91 RBI and 85 runs scored. Five SB. Misses All Star game. Age 33.
2009: Just 43 games, 4 home runs, 21 RBI and 22 runs scored. Now relegated to DH duties, if and when he returns. Age 34.
Much has been written about the “natural decline” of players as they enter their mid-30′s. Could 2009 be just one of those injury-riddled years or the acceleration of a slide from an incredible peak? Could Vlad really be older than his listed age (34)? I’d say he “looks” older, but who knows. He runs like a man 15 years older, that’s for sure. Those legs are now shot, sadly. He had some big SB years for a power hitter, but he was never terribly efficient at it.
His career line, to date, stands at:
- 396 home runs
- 1148 runs
- 1289 RBI
- 175 SB (87 times caught)
- .322 BA
- .387 OBP
- .570 SLG
- .958 OPS
His career 162 game average:
- 36 HR
- 16 SB
- 104 runs
- 116 RBI
- .322 BA
- .387 OBP
- .570 SLG
- .958 OPS
No matter what happens to Vlad the rest of this year, or even the rest of his career, his 12 year peak was incredible. I’d say he’s HOF worthy. He’s just shy of 400 HR (4 short) and coming out of this era, that might be troublesome. But for me, the absence of a peak far and above his established norms makes me believe that we’ve been watching a player play his whole career clean. I could be wrong, but I’m thinking he’s clean. Feel free to disagree. If there’s anything he’s been untruthful about, it might be his age. That’s about it, to me.
My only fear is that he’ll be Dale-Murphy’d… buried behind an era of big hitters. Murphy had a strong career, but a relatively short peak (five/six truly great years). I think Vlad’s peak is longer and more impressive. This is not to compare Murphy to Vlad, but to highlight what a player just on the outside of the HOF looks like as compared to one who will face a similar scrutiny down the road. Murphy flat out fell off the cliff and that absence of the “natural decline” is possibly what cost him a HOF plaque. Whether Vlad comes back next year (and the next few years) and puts up decent numbers or if 2009 is the first step off the cliff might ultimately determine his HOF standing.
