Seattle Mariners series preview 9/18-9/20

September 18, 2009 by Will@IIATMS

Seattle Mariners: 76-71, 3rd in the American League West.

Pitching match-ups:

Friday: A.J. Burnett vs. Felix Hernandez

Saturday: CC Sabathia vs. Doug Fister

Sunday: Joba Chamberlain vs. Ian Snell

Hitting:

wOBA: .311. 26th in MLB, last in the AL.

The worst offense in the American League is actually a little worse than it appears just by looking at their team wOBA. Russell Branyan is currently tied with Ichiro for the team lead in wOBA with a .368 mark. Unfortunately for the Mariners, Branyan and his thirty-one bombs have been on the disabled list since late August, and he will not return in time for this series. Beyond Branyan, Ichiro is putting up a fine year. He recently received a lot of attention for his ninth straight 200 hit year, and regardless of how you feel about base-hits as a measuring tool, it is still a great accomplishment. His value is tied to his .353 batting average, as he still does not walk and has hit only three home runs since June. He does have twenty-five steals, but having been caught eight times, making the net gain in that category marginal. Jose Lopez is the Mariners active leader in home runs and slugging percentage. Franklin Gutierrez made some strides at the plate this season, and has been a lefty masher, putting up a .331/.401/.520 slash line. Beyond those three, the Mariner offense is pretty paltry. The catching duties are split up between Rob Johnson, Kenji Johjima, and Triple- A call up Adam Moore. Johjima is the best offensive threat of three, but his .308 wOBA shouldn’t scare anyone. Shortstop Jack Wilson will miss the series with a bruised right heel.

Pitching:

4.46 FIP. 20th in MLB, 9th in the AL

Friday night the Yankees will get all they can handle from one of the best pitchers in the game, Felix Hernandez. If you can only tune in to one of the games this series, this would be my recommendation. In 207 innings, Felix has struck out 193 hitters, walked only sixty-three while allowing fourteen home runs. Additionally, over half of the balls put in play against him are grounders. He has only gone less than six innings only once since mid May, and with the Mariner bull pen fatigued after throwing nine innings yesterday, expect to see Hernandez out there for awhile tonight.

Nobody really expected to see Doug Fister pitch in the major leagues this season, but Saturday night he’ll make his eighth start of the season. Fister is a pitch to contact guy, and he allows roughly the same number of grounders compared to fly balls (41.7% to 40.3% respectively.) The 6’8” righty does not have an out pitch, so the Bombers will probably stack the order with lefties and and wait for him to miss his spots. He beat New York when the club was in Seattle last month, but he does not have the stuff to dominate a lineup like the Yankees.

Ian Snell is the same head case he was the last time New York faced him. Since coming to the American League in the Jack Wilson deal, he’s allowed thirty walks and struck out only twenty-five batters over nine starts. He can’t throw strikes, and when he does, he’s been a pitching to contact, never a good solution against a lineup like he’ll be facing on Sunday. The Yanks put up eight runs in six innings against him last time, and after the game he said “that lineup is just stupid. They shouldn’t be allowed to have a lineup like that, but that is why their payroll is what it is.” As Jason noted, Alex Rodriguez and Jorge Posada weren’t even playing.

The Mariner bull pen is pretty bad. As a unit, they have posted a tidy earned run average, but only David Aardsma and Mark Lowe have FIP’s under four (Sean White is out for the season.) Aardsma has been a revelation. A question mark in spring training, he has been very reliable since taking over the closing duties in May. He strikes out well over a batter per inning, and has only allowed three home runs in sixty-six innings. That’s not sustainable, especially for a fly ball pitcher, but he certainly is capable of having a lot of success as a major league closer.

Defense:

Team UZR: 72.5. First in MLB.

Seattle has struggled at hitting and pitching, but they sure can go get em in the field. Gutierrez is posting an all world season in the outfield, 22.6 runs above average. Granted, he’s not an established name, but if Gutierrez does not win a gold glove the award ought to be discontinued. Flanking him in the outfield will be Ichiro Suzuki (9.7 UZR) and some combination of Bill Hall/ Ryan Langerhans/ Michael Saunders in left. Adrian Beltre has been his usual awesome fielding self, and he’s returned to the lineup since the last time New York was in. Josh Wilson takes over Jack Wilson, and he and Lopez form a pretty average double play combo. Johjima has thrown out over 50% of would be base stealers.

Overall:

Seattle clearly has a better team than they did last year. Still, they are outperforming their Pythagorean record by eight games, largely due to their success in one run contests. New York ought to have all they can handle tonight with King Felix on the mound, but they should be able to knock Fister and Snell around. If they can take two out of three, they ought to feel pretty good on the plane to Los Angeles.

Sources:

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1902&position=P

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/SEA/2009.shtml

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Mariners&pos=all&stats=bat&qual=0&type=0&season=2009&month=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Mariners&pos=all&stats=pit&qual=0&type=1&season=2009&month=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Mariners&pos=all&stats=fld&qual=0&type=0&season=2009&month=0

http://www.fangraphs.com/winss.aspx?team=Mariners&pos=all&stats=pit&qual=0&type=2&season=2009&month=0

 
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