Pitching Profile: Cole Hamels

October 31, 2009 by Will@IIATMS

Last postseason, Cole Hamels took MLB by storm, bringing home both the NLCS and World Series MVP awards. He ended up with an ESPN commercial, a Sports Illustrated cover and a shiny new world championship ring for his efforts.

In 2009, he’s the owner of a sterling 3.91 K/BB, a solid (if not spectacular) 3.72 FIP and the third highest swinging strike rate in the majors (11.8%, behind Javier Vasquez and Rich Harden).

Hamels hasn’t been as superhuman in this season as he was in October of 2008. He’s been merely very good remember that 3.72 is not nearly as impressive in the NL as it would be in the AL. Over the last month, though, he’s been doing his best Livan Hernandez impression See the table below:

	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	K	ERA	FIP	K/BB
Since 9/23	31.1	40	24	24	8	7	23	6.89	5.75	3.29
Regular Season	193.2	206	95	93	24	43	168	4.32	3.72	3.91

The thought here is that Hamels is simply worn out. Consider his innings totals since coming to the majors 181.1 in 2006, 183.1 in 2007, and then 227.1 in 2008. Now, it appears he may have hit a wall after 160 innings in 2009.

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Combine that with the fact that Hamels’ best pitch is his changeup, and the fact that Yankees were the 3^rd best in MLB as a team at producing runs versus changeups (per fangraphs.com), and it looks rough for the Phillies. That said, the Phillies are above average against the cutter, and rank as the best team in the majors against sliders, two pitches Pettitte relies on.

And it should be pointed out that while it’s not an elimination game, it might as well be a must-win for the Phillies– Sunday brings a rather unfair matchup between CC Sabathia and Joe Blanton. If Hamels wants another ESPN commercial in 2010, it’s time to man up.

Recommended related reading: World Series head-to-head: Starters, where we noted the following:

One thing to note–the Yankees are very good at hitting changeups (3rd best in the league by pitch values), and Cole Hamels best pitch is his changeup.

What the other side thinks: Crashburn Alley’s preview of Andy Pettitte