A Future LF Alternative

Earlier this week, Moshe asked readers what kind of a deal they’d give to Carl Crawford. Obviously, it’s a fair question. He plays left field and, unless Brett Gardner totally blossoms this year, the Yankees may need a stronger left fielder next season. Extension talks between Crawford and the Rays have apparently stalled, so the likelihood of Crawford hitting free agency seems bigger now than it did even just a few days ago.

Let’s turn our heads from Crawford, though, and shift them to a somewhat familiar foe: Jayson Werth.

Jayson Werth

I briefly profiled Jayson before the World Series when I was back at Bronx Baseball Daily and he, like Crawford, is in the final year of his contract.

The definition of a late bloomer, Werth has flourished in his age 28-30 seasons with the Phillies. Since arriving in the City of Brotherly Love, Werth has been a .276/.376/.494/.870 hitter. His power is impressive, as marked by his .218 IsoP for the Phillies, and his speed is great too. In his time with the Phils, Werth has stolen 47 bases while being caught only five times (90% success rate). He’s played all three outfield positions (mostly right field) and has been worth 13.6 WAR over the last three seasons, which is a mark 2.3 wins higher than Crawford over the same time.

When thinking of Jayson Werth’s style of play, think of Nick Swisher. He’s not going to hit for a very high average (career: .265, last three years: .276) but he’s going to walk a lot (12.2% career walk rate) and hit for a lot of power (see the aforementioned .218 IsoP). Like Swisher, though, he does tend to strike out a lot: 29.5% for his career (Swisher: 25.5%).

On paper (spreadsheets perhaps?), Werth would be a perfect fit for the Yankees. He fits their power and patience scheme well and can play both corner outfield spots very well.

There are, however, some caveats.

The first is Werth’s age. Jayson will turn 31 in May, so he’s exiting the age-based prime for players. Secondly, Werth is likely to look for a big deal. While he’s been underrated for the past few years, his stock is rising and his star is shining a little more brightly these days. He’s going to make $7MM this season and if he has another strong season, he’ll definitely want a big raise. The third caveat really doesn’t even depend on Werth. If the Yankees do indeed change things up and put Brett Gardner in center and Curtis Granderson in left (however unlikely) and they’re both successful in their new roles, there will be no need for the Yankees to sign a left fielder.

As with most potential free agent signings, my concern is not with the money (the Yankees will likely not have much trouble in terms of being able to afford a player), but with the years. For Crawford, I’d like a short term deal because I’m not sure how the legs of a speed/defense guy are going to hold up. For Werth, I’d like a short deal because he’s older. His age doesn’t mean he will decline, but it is more likely than it is in a younger player.

We should keep a close eye on Crawford and Werth this year. If they hit free agency, they’re likely to be targets for the Yankees. Both players would be great additions and if Crawford becomes too pricey, Werth could be a good alternative.

A native and resident of the Mean Streets of Southwestern Connecticut, Matt is a narcissistic, misanthropic 20something English teacher who lives by a simple creed: Yankees Only.

8 thoughts on “A Future LF Alternative

  1. smurfy

    Nice, even-handed article, Matt. I agree that we should give Gardner a good chance, especially in light of his defensive capabilities. If he can get on base a lot, and if he can steal, methinks we have a good leadoff man, which is also a precious asset. (Not that Derek isn’t doing terrifically.)

    Lastly, your point is a good one: if we save on bucks for left, we can spend those bucks on the best pitching, and you spell that c-h-a-m-p-i-o-n.

  2. Can we stop looking for 2011 replacements before we even have our first spring traing game of 2010?

  3. [...] Imbrogno over at TYU wonders if Jayson Werth of the Phillies will be a Yankee target next [...]

  4. smurfy

    Oh, and on Werth vs, Crawford, my eye has been drawn to Werth for a couple years. He’s exciting.

    But, you’re right, Kevin, better to play this year first. I for one am very curious to see Curtis perform.

  5. Steve S.

    Either one would be terrific, but I can see the Yanks playing Werth in his natural RF position, and moving Swish over to LF. I believe Nick’s contract expires after 2011, which gives them some flexibility as well.

    I don’t think they’d sign a LF long term, which means I don’t think Cash is as hot for Crawford as everyone else does. They’d rather sign a natural RF like Werth and strengthen themselves defensively at 2 positions by moving Swish. That also gives them the flexibility to move Jeter/Alex to the OF in 2012.

  6. -Leftylarry

    If money were no issue and/or Nick Johnson craps out, I could see Werth in RF, Gardner in CF, Granderson in lF and swish the DH.

    • bornwithpinstripes

      posada must be the DH next year he won’t be able to catch..posada got 1 year to much.would have been nice if his contract was up this year also

  7. [...] The Yankee U wonders if the Yankees might target Jayson Werth next offseason. [...]

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