One of the busiest men in the business just got busier

And thankfully, it’s to our collective benefit. For you see, as if routinely spilling thousands of words educating us in on the intricacies of advanced statistics, discovering that Derek Jeter has more power to right than the best player in baseball and the most comprehensive analysis of Phil Hughes’ pitching arsenal I’ve ever seen (not to mention authoring my favorite post of the offseason) wasn’t enough, RAB’s tireless Joe Pawlikowski is now writing for FanGraphs.

Take a moment to not only read his inaugural post, but enjoy the fact that one of the top Yankee analysts in the game has joined the top baseball analysis site on the web. And just in time for Valentine’s Day, to boot!… Click here to read the rest

Discussion: Rivera or Jeter Harder To Replace?

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With the expiration of their contracts looming, a future without Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera is on the minds of many Yankees fans. Today, River Ave Blues asked their Twitterati the following question: which one of the two will be easier to replace once his time as a major leaguer is up? I opined that Jeter will be more difficult to replace, and my reasoning is two-fold.

1) Jeter will leave a bigger hole. Both are of the best at their respective positions, with Rivera undisputably the greatest closer of all-time. However, a transcendent everyday player provides more value than an otherworldly closer, particularly in the regular season. Just to illustrate that point, Jeter has not notched fewer than 3.7 WAR in any season since 2001. Rivera has never had a WAR in excess of 3.2. Of course, the postseason narrows the gap a bit, as Mariano essentially becomes an everyday player during the postseason, thereby maximizing his value.… Click here to read the rest

Visualizing pitcher performance

Earlier this year, Justin Bopp over at Beyond the Box Score showcased a unique illustrative method termed DiamondView (it was Bopp’s creation), in order to evaluate team capabilities with regards to fielding (UZR/150), getting on base (OBP), base-running (EQBRR), and power (ISO). Last time, he provided us with the following review of the American League East using DiamondView (you can read about his methodology here). Now, for our viewing pleasure, he has created individual visuals for pitchers and the results are, once again, a lot of fun to look at.

Bopp’s personalized DiamondView evaluations for pitchers are based on command (i.e., collecting strike outs), control (i.e., preventing walks), durability (i.e., in-game and throughout the season), and batted-ball (i.e., ground ball versus fly ball) statistics. The figures are predicated upon a 0-100 scale, with 100 being the greatest and 0, of course, being the worst. The individual diamond, specific to the featured pitcher, then stretches accordingly within the fixed diamond.

With that said, here is Bopp’s DiamondView illustration for Yankees starter, A.J.… Click here to read the rest

Wishing Glavine well

Year Age Tm W L W-L% ERA GS CG SHO IP R ER SO ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
1987 21 ATL 2 4 .333 5.54 9 0 0 50.1 34 31 20 78 1.748 9.8 0.9 5.9 3.6 0.61
1988 22 ATL 7 17 .292 4.56 34 1 0 195.1 111 99 84 80 1.352 9.3 0.6 2.9 3.9 1.33
1989 23 ATL 14 8 .636 3.68 29 6 4 186.0 88 76 90 99 1.140 8.3 1.0 1.9 4.4 2.25
1990 24 ATL 10 12 .455 4.28 33 1 0 214.1 111 102 129 94 1.446 9.7 0.8 3.3 5.4 1.65
1991 25 ATL 20 11 .645 2.55 34 9 1 246.2 83 70 192 153 1.095 7.3 0.6 2.5 7.0 2.78
1992 26 ATL 20 8 .714 2.76 33 7 5 225.0 81 69 129 133 1.187 7.9 0.2 2.8 5.2 1.84
1993 27 ATL 22 6 .786 3.20 36 4 2 239.1 91 85 120 127 1.362 8.9 0.6 3.4 4.5 1.33
1994 28 ATL 13 9 .591 3.97 25 2 0 165.1 76 73 140 106 1.470 9.4 0.5 3.8 7.6 2.00
1995 29 ATL 16 7 .696 3.08 29 3 1 198.2 76 68 127 139 1.248 8.2 0.4 3.0 5.8 1.92
1996 30 ATL 15 10 .600 2.98 36 1 0 235.1 91 78 181 147 1.305 8.5 0.5 3.3 6.9 2.13
1997 31 ATL 14 7 .667 2.96 33 5 2 240.0 86 79 152 141 1.150 7.4 0.8 3.0 5.7 1.92
1998 32 ATL 20 6 .769 2.47 33 4 3 229.1 67 63 157 168 1.203 7.9 0.5 2.9 6.2 2.12
1999 33 ATL 14 11 .560 4.12 35 2 0 234.0 115 107 138 109 1.462 10.0 0.7 3.2 5.3 1.66
2000 34 ATL 21 9 .700 3.40 35 4 2 241.0 101 91 152 135 1.191 8.3 0.9 2.4 5.7 2.34
2001 35 ATL 16 7 .696 3.57 35 1 1 219.1 92 87 116 125 1.413 8.7 1.0 4.0 4.8 1.20
2002 36 ATL 18 11 .621 2.96 36 2 1 224.2 85 74 127 140 1.282 8.4 0.8 3.1 5.1 1.63
2003 37 NYM 9 14 .391 4.52 32 0 0 183.1 94 92 82 93 1.478 10.1 1.0 3.2 4.0 1.24
2004 38 NYM 11 14 .440 3.60 33 1 1 212.1 94 85 109 119 1.290 8.6 0.8 3.0 4.6 1.56
2005 39 NYM 13 13 .500 3.53 33 2 1 211.1 88 83 105 116 1.363 9.7 0.5 2.6 4.5 1.72
2006 40 NYM 15 7 .682 3.82 32 0 0 198.0 94 84 131 114 1.333 9.2 1.0 2.8 6.0 2.11
2007 41 NYM 13 8 .619 4.45 34 1 1 200.1 102 99 89 97 1.413 9.8 1.0 2.9 4.0 1.39
2008 42 ATL 2 4 .333 5.54 13 0 0 63.1 40 39 37 76 1.642 9.5 1.6 5.3 5.3 1.00
22 Seasons 305 203 .600 3.54 682 56 25 4413.1 1900 1734 2607 118 1.314 8.8 0.7 3.1 5.3 1.74
162 Game Avg.
Click here to read the rest

Preventing Dutch Disease

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I’ve touched on this idea nin the past, but I would like to fully form it today.

The pre-lockout New York Rangers and the current New York Knicks have more in common with the 2000s New York Yankees than a home city. All three functioned with a huge payroll relative to their competition. While the Yankees managed to put together winning teams during their time of payroll advantage, the Rangers and Knicks did not, and I’d be willing to say that all three teams were huge disappointments relative to their payroll.

Economists have a term to describe a weird phenomena in developing countries called “Dutch Disease”. Dutch Disease refers to a strange currency phenomena that I don’t really understand, but the jist of it is pretty simple: developing countries rich with natural resources do worse than countries that have fewer natural resources. Its a paradox that many very smart people in developing countries know about, but can’t really do much to stop.… Click here to read the rest

Projecting the Captain

Coming into 2009, we weren’t quite sure what was going to happen to Derek Jeter’s bat. In 2008, Jeter had a 102 OPS+, which was the first time he was below 110 since 1997. His wOBA was .343, still a good mark, but it was the first time ever in a full season that he had a wOBA under .345. His wRC+, 110, was also a career low, as was his anemic IsoP mark of .107. It looked like age was finally beginning to catch up with Derek. I even wondered if his decline was actually coming. Then, 2009 happened.

In 2009, Jeter put up a line of .334/.406/.465/.871 with a 132 OPS+ (tied for second highest in his career), a .390 wOBA, and a 142 wRC+. It was truly a bounce back year for Derek, and I was glad my doubts in him were unfounded. Perhaps I should’ve known better in 2008. Perhaps I should’ve known that Jeter wouldn’t put up a year as “bad” as 2008.… Click here to read the rest

PP – Top 20 Yankee Prospects Averaged List

Sean over at Pending Pinstripes did what I was thinking about doing but too lazy to pull the trigger on: he averaged the top-20 prospect lists of every major prospect pundit out there, including my list, and merged it in to one list. Austin Jackson and Arodys Vizcaino were eliminated the the lists were adjusted.

Here is my list, and here is the averaged list, with ratings on a 1-240 scale:

1. Jesus Montero – 240
2. Austin Romine – 216
3. Zach McAllister – 207
4. Manny Banuelos – 205
5. Slade Heathcott – 187
6. JR Murphy – 125
7. Andrew Brackman – 100
8. Mark Melancon- 98
9. Jeremey Bleich- 91
10. Ivan Nova- 78
11. Jairo Heredia-77
12. Kelvin De Leon- 76
13. DJ Mitchell- 72
14. Gary Sanchez- 59
15. Wilkens De La Rosa- 48
16. Corban Joseph- 48
17. David Adams- 35
18. Adam Warren- 30
19. Dellin Betances- 28
20. Jose Ramirez – 22

There is a good deal of variation after the top-5.… Click here to read the rest

Different players, different outcomes

Former Yankees Chien-Ming Wang and Johnny Damon have been making contract news lately, but in different directions. Damon is still unemployed, and while it’s rumored that the Braves have sent him an offer and that he’s been coveting the Tigers, it is also said that he continues to hold out for a two-year deal that may never come. Wang, on the other hand, may have a team shortly, probably landing with the Nationals, but also perhaps the Dodgers. The details of Wang’s pending deal are not being discussed (as far as I’m aware) but I’ll go out on a limb and project that it will be for one year, and not a lot of money.

It’s amusing to see that Wang, not Damon, is close to having a new home. At season’s end, the day after the World Series, any Yankee fan would have predicted the opposite. Damon had completed a 126 OPS+ season (his best ever) and broke out of a slump in the ALDS to become a major contributor in the World Series.… Click here to read the rest