I’m being harsh on Posada. He hasn’t really declined yet. Dude put a 133 OPS+ last season. He was a large contributor to a World Series victory. Replace Posada with his backup, Jose Molina, do the Yankees win? Probably. One player won’t make a huge difference on a 103-win ballclub. But, obviously the loss would hurt. Hitters like Posada don’t grow on trees.
The point of this piece was to look into Posada’s future, and how better to do that then with Baseball Prospectus’ marvelous PECOTA system. PECOTA is, shall we say, bearish on Posada. They peg him for a .263/.355/.445 line (hardly end-of-the-world, but a decline without question) and suggest he’ll be hurt again–only 348 PAs.
That isn’t surprising. Posada’s got a lot going against him: age/wear and tear, position, his injury issues of late.
How much more can the Yankees reasonably expect out of Posada? Another season like 2009 is unlikely. The Yankees do realize he’s nearing the end, don’t they?…