Welcome to The Hughes Rules

June 21, 2010 by Jason@IIATMS

And so it begins:

The Yankees have announced, as part of the plan to limit his innings, Phil Hughes’ next turn in the rotation will be skipped.

[...]

He will make his next start Tuesday, June 29 in Seattle.

Hard to say if this will indeed work or if it will stifle Hughes’ development. If they are just skipping starts to keep his IP count managed, I’m OK with this. I like it better, I think, than the Joba Rules last year, which pulled Joba out of starts after the 5th inning. Just for kicks and giggles, here was my $0.02 on Hughes from our preseason roundtable:

Hard to get a feel for what to expect here. Probably 20-25 starts and 150 innings, with a few RP appearances thrown in. A high 3’s to low 4’s ERA and a solid WHIP would be a huge win for the Yanks. Even with a strict pitch/innings count, if the bullpen is as good as it is on paper, he could still manage to win 12-14 games.

Hughes might have 12 wins by the All Star break! Seems that the Yanks will manage his starts to get to his IP, rather than let him make every start and truncate his innings. I have to think that’s better, but again, I just don’t know yet. It seems that Hughes has a really solid head on his shoulders and can navigate his way thru this “growing up” process. If so, the Yanks are set with Hughes Unlimited in 2011 and beyond. This is a good thing.

And just “because”, here’s what I said about Joba, only because of how it relates to Hughes:

Joba, Joba, Joba. As I said above, I think Joba winds up making some 15 starts, if not a few more, due to injury (Pettitte, maybe Burnett) and due to the team trying to reign in Hughes innings/appearances. Net/net, a 4.30 ERA with a K an inning and a too-high WHIP of 1.35ish over some 140 IP (60 as a RP, 80 as a SP). And plenty of huffing and puffing from the columnists in the rags.

The Yanks, as of now, don’t seem to be inclined to have Joba yo-yo again. Will it be Gaudin? Could it be Joba?

Here’s what the rest of the team had to say about Hughes:

(click “view full post” to read more)

Will: This one’s tough. Frankly, I don’t know what to expect. I’d love to say he’ll repeat his performance of last season, but out of the rotation–but then he’d be the best pitcher in baseball. Unlikely, that.

I think he’ll sit around league average, with a game or two that let us dream, where he strikes out double digits, walks none and allows two or three hits over seven innings. Most of the time, though, towards the end of his outings he’ll tire. It’s just a hard thing to do, going from relieving to throwing 100 pitches a night. It’ll take some time, and the rules will weigh on him as they did on Joba. Tons of upside here, though.

TCM: Hughes is going to struggle off the bat as he stretches himself back out.  But I also think he learned how to pitch in the big leagues in the pen last year, and that he’ll top his 2007 performance.   I think he’ll get 25 starts or so, and pitch 135-140 innings with an ERA hovering around 4.00.  His K/9 will settle in around 8, but his HR/9 and BB/9 will rise as he tires at the end of his performances.  As long as the Yankees manage him well, I see no red flags here, other than making sure he doesn’t overextend himself.

Mark: Bill James is bullish on Hughes FIP-wise (3.35) but not innings-wise (121), but I’ll go for 150 innings of a 4.15 FIP – not bad at all.

Larry: (7-9, 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP). The statistics will show Hughes pitching better than Vasquez, but he won’t have the results to show it.  He’ll show flashes of brilliance – a couple of one and two-hit games.  He’ll pitch a bunch of games into the sixth or seventh inning where he’ll dominate, except that he’ll allow 4 runs in a single inning and leave with an ineffective start and ineligible for the win.  This will be the season when Hughes builds the foundation for his emergence in 2011 or 2012 as a solid number two starter for the long term.  But 2010 will not be a great season for Hughes.  In April and May, we’ll still be debating whether Joba should be the fifth starter and Hughes should be in the bullpen.  Then Joba will be made a starter along with Hughes, and we’ll move on to debate something else.   

Tamar: Phil Hughes will be one of the best fifth starters in the game. I believe that in this case, pitching out of the bullpen last season was good for Hughes. It helped him regain some of his confidence after some frustrating injuries. Do I think he is going to be gunning for a Cy Young, definitely no, but I do believe he will be a consistent and solid fifth starter for a team that really didn’t have that in 2009.

Looks like Tamar was probably the closest and Will was also right there.

So what’s your prediction on how the Yanks will handle Hughes, Joba and the rest?

 
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2 Responses to “Welcome to The Hughes Rules”

  1. World Wide News Flash says:
    June 21, 2010 at 10:12 pm

    Welcome to The Hughes Rules…

    I found your entry interesting do I’ve added a Trackback to it on my weblog :) …

  2. jon says:
    June 22, 2010 at 9:36 am

    Glad to see Tamar hitting it on the head (or at least being closest to the pin.)

     

    I think Hughes will handle the rules alright, but his winning percentage will go down, the more they skip his starts.  (then again, with his record, a pretty obvious prediction there.)

     

    I'm guessing Gaudin gets a few starts to either spare Hughes, or, more likely, cover AJ's spot.  (Tho Joe is just as likely to give them to his buddy Marte, just because Marte won a game for him in Florida once upon a time.)  Two more starts like he's had, and AJ will come up with an "injury" just like Wang did last spring, just to get him out of the lineup, and make it so he can have a couple "rehab" starts at Scranton.



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