AJ Burnett’s career has always been a little Jeckyll and Hyde-y, but this is ridiculous. As Yankee fans know, June has been an unkind month for the big righthander. After his first 11 starts, Burnett sat at 6-2 with a 3.28 ERA, and seemed poised to have perhaps the best season of his career. Since the start of the month, however, AJ has completely unraveled. In five June starts, Burnett has gone 0-5 with an 11.35 ERA and has averaged fewer than 5 innings per start. What happened? Where did Burnett go? And, most importantly, is he coming back?Coming into 2010, Burnett’s underlying stats were solid. He struck out 8.37 batters per nine innings and had a .97 GB/FB percentage. His walk rate (3.78 per 9 innings) was high, but was more than balanced out by his ability to strike batters out. He also sported one of the best pitches in the game, a curveball that was 16 runs above average in 2009, according to Fangraphs. And since having major injury concerns, Burnett has thrown more than 200 innings in each of the last two years.
Through June, Burnett had been incredibly effective. While his strikeouts had dropped off by 20%, so had his walks, and he actually had a 10% swing in his ground ball rate. AJ was cruising. Then the magic ended. Burnett’s K/9 popped back up to 7.4 per nine, but his walk rate shot up as well, to 6.65/9. At the same time, both his GB/FB rate (0.63) and linedrive rate (22%) shot up. And with the rise in his flyball rate, Burnett has seen his homers allowed rise too. Going into June, Burnett had allowed 4 big flies in 11 starts. This month, he’s allowed 9.
Why? To my untrained eye, it looks like his fastballs, particularly his two-seamer, has a lot less movement on it right now. Consider the following chart, which charts velocity (on the Y-axis) versus horizontal movement (on the X-axis) for each of Burnett’s first 15 starts. Four-seamers are green, two-seamers are blue, curveballs are grey, and change-ups are orange.
(Click to embiggen)
While the velocity seems to be consistent, you can see, starting in start 10, his two-seamer really starting to creep back toward the four-seamer in terms of its overall break. Previously, the fastballs were two distinct pitches, but now overlap. At the same time, Burnett has ramped up the use of his fastball (he’s used it 71.6% of the time in ‘10, his highest FB% of any season since 2004). This suggests, to me and my neophyte Pitch F/X-fu, that it should be easier for batters to hit the two-seamer in particular, since the diminished break would allow it to stay within the hitting zone, whereas in the past it would have broken further outside to left-handed batters.
Likewise, in this chart of Vertical Movement (on the Y-axis) versus velocity (on the X-axis), you can see that the two-seamer’s break seems to have diminished as well.
(click to embiggen)
Also, as the numbers above would also indicate, Burnett has been incredibly wild, missing outside and in the dirt with frightening regularity. And for the first time ever, his curveball has been below average.
Because his velocity has remained relatively consistent, I’m confident the good AJ Burnett is still in there somewhere, struggling to get out. As Jason noted this morning, Burnett’s struggles seem to coincide with pitching coach Dave Eiland’s absence from the club. The hope is that Eiland’s tutoring can help Burnett to sort out what’s going on, whether it’s his grip, his mechanics, or some kind of injury that is sapping AJ of his usual effectiveness. He’d better do it soon, because the Yankees will be effectively punting a spot in the rotation until they figure something out.
Maybe contact the Nationals, and swap him for Wang? Same results, less money.
No – I'm kidding – at least A.J. will admit it when he stinks – Wang never thought there was anything wrong with an double digit ERA. (kinda like Joba in that respect – neither Wang or Joba ever threw a bad pitch or game.)
I hope he's in there; I also hope that Eiland or someone finds him. Right now, every time Burnett's spot comes up, I'm reminded of the season where Kennedy and Hughes had been annointed as starters. And worse than the embarrassing pitching is the fact that it seems to be affecting the rest of the team. Knowing that you're punting a game seems to be taking the edge off everyone involved. Just look at the 3rd inning last night – or the game against Dontrelle in Arizona – there might be better explanations, but that one works for me.
Three more years! Three more years!
At the risk of being firebombed by angry Yankee fans, I feel compelled to point out that Carl Pavano went 4-1 with a 2.25 ERA in June for the slumping Twins. Neener, neener.
Yeah, but AJ has cool tattoos and Pavano has a nasty moustache.
Derek Lowe, available in the same off-season and signed for a year less, has been worth 3.7 WAR to AJ's 3.6 and has gotten better every month.
Mark – both you and CommonMan are right about Pavano and Lowe – but do either of you think they would have performed at that level for the Yankees?
Especially Pavano; he does have a bit of a track record, as I recall. As for Lowe – I just figure he would devolve like so many other free agent pitchers do when they come to NYC.
C.C. is one of the few pitchers we've bought that actually performed close to expectations (in recent history – Mussina was the man, I know.) And even the Sabathia purchase was under fairly heavy and harsh scrutiny only a few weeks ago – back when he was annointed as the designated Oriole pitcher.
Jon,
I'm just messing with you all. Lowe has been pretty bad himself in a Braves uniform, and while Pavano didn't pitch for the Yankees much, he didn't pitch enough to get a perspective on how well he could've pitched for NY. Pavano also pitched in a pitcher's park in FL and is pitching in one (actually, two when you consider the Metrodome) now in Minnesota. Both would probably not be great in NY either, though Pavano would have been the best bet of the three because he was younger than Lowe, had better control than Burnett, and would have required a shorter contract. Not that the Yankees or Yankee fans could have stomached his continued existence in NY.
As for free-agent pitchers devolving in NY, go name all the free-agent pitchers with big contracts or slightly big contracts that signed anywhere and immediately cross out the bad ones. When you're left with about three, you'll realize that most free-agent pitchers suck with their new teams. It's called getting old and past one's prime.
Just wait until CC exercises his opt-out after next year….
Just sayin', I think it's coming! And, if the Yanks should win it all in '10 and/or '11, he's definitely gone.
Really? You think so? I have to say that I'm not convinced. I think the LA stuff was a ploy to get the Yankees to add years and money. It worked because he is from the area, but he has the next 40 years of his life to spend there. Why not make a crapload of money pitching in NY?
Now, I could see him opting out just to force some extra years in the same way ARod did, but I don't think he'd leave if he was pitching well and winning.
I'd forgotten the opt-out. But I dunno – if he tries to opt-out, and Cashman does some ridiculous long-term extension like he did with A-Rod, I'll just have to stop drinking the "Cashman is a genius" kool-aid.
Even if CC has a great year – if he opts out at his age and size, I say go for it. Burnett (and even Pavano or Brown) show the folly of chasing aging stars and giving them over long contracts. (as do Posada, Rodriguez, and within a year, maybe Jeter.)
I dunno Jason – you may be right – but if CC stays, it might just be because he's falling apart and no one else will pay him the big bucks. Now if the Yankees had the option to opt-out — that would be pretty cool.
Knowing AJ, he's going to be lights out come July/August. Just hope it doesn't all come around again in September and October.
@Mark: "Why not make a crapload of money pitching in NY?"
Because after 3 years, he'll be nearly $70m richer than he was. Because he'll still make a crapload in LA/SF. Because he could leave saying "been there, done that".
Of course, it's all just ramblings of a madman right now.
And yes, if he opts out, I'd be disappointed but not heartbroken. The financial burdens in the coming years are mindblowing. ARod, Teix, Jeter, AJ, CC…. All as they are into their mid-30's and beyond.
I see your point, but I'd still be surprised if he left. But I guess there's only one way to find out.