The first thing we need to do is find out why these trades don’t work for the selling team (I’m essentially going to stick with selling teams, but as Yankee fans, you’re interested in the buying teams. Guess what? You win. What? You were expecting something different?). The original theory is a nice one. You turn one really good player into several good ones, and in the swap, you switch out future value for present value. However, the idea is flawed. The theory assumes that the 6-win player traded brings back 2 or 3 4-win (the numbers don’t exactly match up, but you get the point) players, but in practice, the 6-win player continues to be the 6-win player while the prospects never make it or turn into 2-win players or worse. So how do we change this?
One, start demanding top prospects back when you can. I’m going to use the Oswalt trade for the rest of the piece to illustrate my points.… Click here to read the rest