An epic Rosenthal rant on replay

I just love it when Ken Rosenthal gets all frothy:

The commissioner is 76. The average age of the 14 committee members is 63. I don’t want to be disrespectful. But that committee is seriously old-school.

Here’s what kills me: Baseball is at the cutting edge of technology in so many other areas. [...] Yet, when it comes to expanded replay – and bringing the actual on-field product up to date – baseball is still in dial-up mode.

We can debate how far to go. We can debate whether to award challenges to managers, place a fifth umpire in a replay booth and whatever else might work. Pace of game is a legitimate concern. So is placement of runners after calls are reversed. But no obstacle is insurmountable.

[...]

I shudder to think: What will it take for baseball to finally wake up?

Couldn’t agree more. My belief is that placing a fifth umpire in the booth with the ability to wirelessly contact the on-field umpiring crew would absolutely work. I do not like the red flag/challenge system. Strategy should not have a place in getting the play right. Forcing managers to consider withholding their challenge because it’s early in the game is silly. Get the calls right.

Have the fifth umpire buzz the on-field crew chief. The crew meets on the field, discusses and shares info with the fifth umpire. The fifth umpire reviews and relays results (and runner positioning to the field). The on-field crew never leaves the field and this can be achieved in mere minutes, at best. Will not be any longer than a protracted argument with the players and managers. Will also keep players from getting themselves tossed due to arguing calls that could be and should be reversed.

The placement of runners is also very tough, no debating this. Again, getting the call right supercedes everything else.

And because I know someone will say it: Not balls and strikes. I don’t think we’re quite ready to install an automated system like the one in tennis.

Open-Mindedness and Overreach

If you only read one article today, I recommend this post about the debate over statistics by Drew Silva at Hardball Talk. A few points I’d like to emphasize:

  • As one of the commenters notes, while we typically view this in terms of “pro-stats vs. anti-stats,” when it’s really an argument over which stats we should use to evaluate player performance.
  • On that note, where Drew wishes everyone in the BBWAA was familiar with advanced stats, I’d settle for familiarity with basic statistics. To put it bluntly, anyone who thinks you can use numbers that are based heavily on the actions of others like RBI and pitcher wins to evaluate individual performance is just ignoring basic rules about using statistics. It ought to be humiliating, really.
  • Ultimately, I’m not sure this even matters. No matter who wins the Cy Young this year, I think the old-guard ultimately lost the war by even having this debate.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Game 159: Yankees 4, Blue Jays 8

A loss by the Tampa Bay Rays gave the Yankees a chance to retake first in the AL East, but another miserable start by Javier Vazquez put the Yankees in a big hole early.  They fought back, but it wasn’t enough as the Blue Jays made Cito Gaston a winner in his final game at the Rogers Centre with an 8-4 victory.

The Blue Jays got on the board early, as Travis Snider hit a lead off homer in the bottom of the first for a 1-0 lead.  Vazquez continued to struggle in the second, getting two quick outs before giving up another solo shot, this time to John Buck.  John McDonald followed with a double to left.  He moved to third on a wild pitch and scored on Snider’s single, giving the Blue Jays a 3-0 lead.

The Jays continued to pour it on in the fourth.  Aaron Hill worked a walk and moved to third on Adam Lind’s single to center.  A grounder to short by McDonald brought Hill home before Vazquez got out of the inning.  It would be the fifth inning, however, that may have officially sealed Vazquez’s playoff fate.

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RIP: Javy Vazquez’s Yankees career

RIP, Javy Vazquez’s career in pinstripes. After another crappy (is that too kind?) outing, this will hopefully likely be the last we see of Javy in a Yankee uniform. We’ve seen the stats by now and they are flat out horrible. Old school, new school, elementary school, vocational school. I can’t see any reason why Girardi would place him on the playoff roster. None.

No matter what you want to look at, Javy Vazquez has been drinking copiously from the Fountain of Suck.

So first, his Yankees numbers (which don’t include tonite’s %&^*burger sandwich). Suffice it to say, 2004 and 2010 are among his worst two years as a professional. Also the only two years since age 24 where he didn’t reach 200 IP. Looking at just these two years lacks the perspective. I encourage you to check out his entire career to better appreciate how bad he’s been here, relative to elsewhere (read: the NL).

Year Age Tm W L ERA IP ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB
2004 28 NYY 14 10 4.91 198.0 92 1.288 8.9 1.5 2.7 6.8 2.50
2010 34 NYY 10 9 5.07 152.2 85 1.362 8.5 1.7 3.7 7.1 1.92
NYY (2 yrs) 24 19 4.98 350.2 89 1.320 8.7 1.6 3.2 7.0 2.20
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table, Generated 9/29/2010.

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Let’s enjoy the simplicity of the graphs coming out of fangraphs.com, taking note of how often the 2010 line jumps from “good” to “poor”:

(click “view full post” for the gruesome Javy graph-love)

Reviewing The Top of the 10th

Last night, PBS aired the first half of The Tenth Inning, Ken Burns’ follow-up to his famous documentary about baseball. Even though someone at PBS made the unfathomable decision to air this thing on nights where baseball fans are watching, you know, baseball games, I was able to watch it while watching the Yankees clinch a playoff berth (seriously PBS, what were you thinking?) thanks to the wonders of MLB TV.

First, I should probably note that I don’t have particularly strong feelings about the original, which seems to make me a minority. I very much enjoyed the first half of it or so, but thought it got a bit dull and uninteresting once it got around to the mid-1950′s or so. It just seemed like there wasn’t anything particularly interesting that it had to say about more recent baseball history, given the overall direction of the production. So given that nearly all of the events in the new edition took place during parts of my life where I was fully aware of baseball, I really wasn’t expecting it to be that interesting.

What makes The Tenth Inning work, however, is that it seeks to be less informational and more retrospective. It’s a documentary aimed at the casual fan, to be sure, and maybe they’ll learn something new from it, but for the more engaged baseball fan, it’s really just a chance to remember the major events of the past 20 years or so. And especially since I was a kid through all of the material presented thus far, I found this trip down memory lane much more enjoyable than I expected to.

Game 158: Yankees 6, Blue Jays 1

The Yankees have missed strong starting pitching lately, but CC Sabathia put some fears to rest by dominating the Blue Jays’ lineup into the ninth inning.  New York used some small ball to pick up some early runs as Sabathia proved too much for Toronto.  At the end of the night, the Yankees had a 6-1 victory, but more importantly they had punched their ticket to the playoffs.

Derek Jeter got the game started for New York with a single to center.  Mark Teixeira singled to right, moving Jeter to third.  Alex Rodriguez drove a sac fly to right, bringing Jeter home for the first run of the game.

Jeter walked to start the third and moved to second on a wild pitch.  Nick Swisher moved Jeter on a sac bunt and Teixeira drove a sac fly to center as Jeter crossed the plate again, giving the Yankees a 2-0 lead. Travis Snider got Toronto on the board with a solo homer in the bottom of the third, but the Blue Jays were unable to do much else against the Yankees’ ace.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Blame Thrown in Wrong Direction in Tampa

By now, I imagine you’ve heard about the controversy in Tampa. Trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs, David Price tweeted that it was embarrassing that only 12,000 fans showed up to watch, and Evan Longoria reiterated the same feeling later, though Price had apologized by that time. The media exploded, arguing about who should receive the blame—Price or the fans. Was Price being insensitive to the economic plight of the fans? Were the fans demonstrating how impassionate they actually are for their hometown team? And did Price need to apologize for his tweet? Wow, that’s a lot of stuff to cover, so let’s get to it.

Was Price being insensitive to the economic plight of the fans? Partially. It’s not news that the country is not doing so well economically, and Price, a multi-million dollar athlete, is fairly isolated from the middle-class fan. His comment wasn’t exactly PR-worthy, but I don’t know that it was blame-worthy. First of all, he’s a competitive athlete on a great team that is trying to knock off the vaunted Yankees, and while the game was against the Orioles, the moment should have overshadowed the match-up. You can’t really blame him for wanting more fans, as it seemed to make a huge difference (I said “seemed”) in the 2008 playoffs with all the cowbells. He wants that again. Second, the economy is doing better, and while Florida has been hit harder by the recession, no one has ever really shown up in Tampa anyway, though they showed up in September 2008 for Boston and New York (before the recession). This is just frustration, and with the season they’re having and how fans normally react to winning, you would expect different results. It’s not, and he’s frustrated. I don’t blame him.

But can you blame the fans? I’ll say partially again (don’t you hate it when people sit the fence? Just stay with me, but it sucks when both sides have an argument, doesn’t it?). The economy does suck, and it has hit Florida awfully hard. And while the Rays are trying to clinch a spot in the playoffs, it’s not exactly like their place in the playoffs is in jeopardy. Add in the Orioles, and there’s really not a great reason to show up, though Brian Matusz continues to be the best AL rookie no one wants to acknowledge. It’s hard to pay money for something that seems a bit meaningless, especially considering the “real-life” circumstances. Still, you have to wonder about the passion of the city for the team. There’s obviously a fan base there (and let me state that I don’t question the integrity of the fan base. I don’t question your fandom), but you have to wonder how big it is. Does the city care about the team? Teams often say they won the championship for the city, and you kind of get the feeling that the team is just trying to win for themselves and about 15-20,000 other people because everyone else couldn’t care less. But I don’t really blame the city. It’s hard to blame you for not spending money you don’t really have, and I can’t even blame you for not getting attached to a team that’s largely been a travesty since its inception.

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Playoffs!

And just like that, our long national nightmare is (kind of) over as, with a win in Toronto tonight, the New York Yankees have clinched a spot in the 2010 American League playoffs. The Rays won too, (as did the Reds in the NL) so the Yankees remain a half a game back in the A.L. East standings, effectively 1.5 games back considering the Rays would own the tiebreaker, so in all likelihood the Yankees will win the Wild Card and open the playoffs on the road with the Minnesota Twins next Wednesday.

Incredibly, in order to win the championship this year the Yankees may very well have to go through the Twins, the Rays, and the Philadelphia Phillies. Those are 3 very good teams, and every one of those series could be absolute epics. The next month may prove to be a very fun one in terms of watching baseball games. It’s sure to be very stressful anyway. But for now, enjoy the champagne!

Tampa Bay Plans A Step Backwards (More On Why Revenue Sharing Is Dead)

Over the last month, we’ve focused here (and here, and here) on the future of baseball’s system of revenue sharing. The revenue sharing system moves about $450 million annually from baseball’s high-revenue teams like the Yankees and Red Sox to low-revenue teams like the Marlins and Pirates. The idea behind the system is to help low-revenue teams compete on the field. But as we’ve learned from confidential financial statements revealed by deadspin.com, some of the “poor” teams have instead used these payments to increase profits, rather than invest these payments to improve their ballclubs.

In our last installment of this series, we focused on the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that some think has used revenue sharing in the right way. No doubt, the current version of the Rays is a terrific baseball team. However, as I argued here in detail, the Rays’ need for revenue sharing is greatest right now: their current payroll cost is rising, and their local revenues cannot keep pace. But perversely, now that the Rays are achieving the kind of success that revenue sharing (supposedly) was designed to foster, the Rays receive less in revenue sharing than perpetual losers like the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Based on the data revealed by deadspin.com, I stated previously that the Rays probably lost money in 2009, and that they’ll probably lose even more money in 2010. I questioned previously how much longer the Rays could hold the current team together.

Now we have confirmation from Rays’ owner Stuart Sternberg: the Rays are going to cut payroll. The Rays’ current payroll? $72 million. The Rays’ projected 2011 payroll? $50 million. That’s a 31% cut.

(click “view full post” to read more)

2011 chatter gaining volume

A few tidbits to point out and discuss today. Leading off, Ken Rosenthal on the Yanks’ 2011 financial committments and more silliness about trading Granderson:

At least at this point, the Yankees do not figure to be a major player for Crawford or Werth unless they plan to increase their payroll from $206 million to the $225 million range.

The Yankees already have $140.25 million committed to nine players next season. Re-signing closer Mariano Rivera, shortstop Derek Jeter and left-hander Andy Pettitte probably would cost at least $45 million in 2011 salary, free-agent left-hander Cliff Lee at least $20 million.

That’s about $206 million right there.

The Yankees could trade center fielder Curtis Granderson and save $8.25 million, but right-handers Phil Hughes and Joba Chamberlain are arbitration-eligible for the first time and the team also will need to fill other holes.

Sorry, but the Yanks are NOT trading Granderson, at least as I see it. Granderson has improved at the plate in the second half and, by all accounts, a great fit in the locker room. His salary is not onerous by Yankees standards and I can’t see how or why the team would trade him to replace him at twice the cost.

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Another Look at the Playoff Rotation

With the magic number for clinching a playoff spot reduced to just 1, meaning that the good guys need merely to win one more game or have the Red Sox lose just one game to earn a playoff spot (and in the absolute worst case scenario are guaranteed at least a one-game playoff with Boston), the Yankees can really begin thinking about aligning their rotation for next week, as well as beginning to think about just who is going to be used to start which games.

On the latter question, I think the answer is fairly clear. C.C. Sabathia and Andy Pettitte have been the teams two best pitchers all season, and should clearly be the top two starters in the playoffs. It may not shake out that way, especially if Pettitte throws another clunker in his next start, but it should. After that though, we come to the question of whether A.J. Burnett or Phil Hughes is the 3rd starter. Again, this is an open and shut case to me. Hughes might have faded a little bit after the dominant fashion in which he opened the season, but on the whole he’s been a better, more dependable pitcher than Burnett. In fact, if it weren’t for Javier Vazquez’s arm issues, I’m not sure Burnett would even have a spot in a 4 man rotation. As it is, I think he’ll probably need to pitch a game each in the ALCS and World Series, if the Yankees make it that far, but that’s basically all he should get. Sabathia, Pettitte, and Hughes have been the Yankees best starters this season, and Joe Girardi should ride those arms as much as possible in the playoffs.

Game 157: Yankees 5, Blue Jays 7

Last night, the Yankees were stuck trying to claw their way back into yet another game where their starting pitcher gave up a big early lead.  A.J. Burnett had a terrible start, but the bullpen was effective in holding the Blue Jays while the Yankees mounted a comeback.  Unfortunately, it was too little too late for New York, who fell to Toronto 7-5.

Travis Snider started the bottom of the first with a ground-rule double to left.  Yunel Escobar grounded out to second, letting Snider move to third.  Jose Bautista grounded one to short and Snider scored for the first run of the game.  A solo homer by John Buck started the bottom of the second gave the Blue Jays a 2-0 lead.

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In Which I Defend the Steinbrenner Memorial

Rob Neyer has been blogging a little bit about the Monument Park tribute to George Steinbrenner. Suffice it to say, he’s not a fan. Now obviously I respect Rob as a writer and an analyst and I agree with him a heckuva lot more than I disagree with him, but this is one of the times where I do disagree with him, and quite a bit.

Let me preface this by saying that this is one of those times where everyone has a right to their opinion. There’s no right or wrong answer to whether you like the monument or not. Speaking for myself (and Jason), I actually do like it. Not just in the sense that I don’t dislike it, but in the sense that I actually have a positive opinion of the thing.

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