Welcome to September

Amazingly enough, it’s September 1st. Fast summer, eh? Yesterday, Mark took a look at the races in each division, as well as some other stuff in the NL, and probably angered the Baseball Gods a bit. Today, let’s get a bit closer to home and see what the Yanks have on tap, probably further angering the Gods. (In penance, I offer up Chan Ho Park as a sacrifice.)

According to Sportsclubstats.com (thank you Adam), the Yanks have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, same as the Rays. And our friends some 200 miles to the North: Just a 1.8% chance. [Defined as: Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.]

And ESPN pegs the Yankees’ playoff chances at 98.2% and the Rays at 97.9%, essentially a tie. No surprises here. They’re a “bit” more generous to the Sox and gives them a 3.0% chance.

Note to Baseball Gods: I don’t make the odds; I’m just noting them.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Here is the Yanks schedule and how they have faired this year, head-to-head:

  • Sept 1-2, vs. OAK: Yanks are 7-1 against OAK this season and have laid the wood to the A’s the first two games. A four game sweep is a lot to ask for, but it would do wonders for the club.
  • Sept 3-5, vs TOR: On the other hand, Toronto has played the Yanks very well this year, owning a 7-5 record against the pinstripes. Very impressive team and showing no signs of rolling over for anyone. Toronto will allow emerging ace Brandon Morrow one more start, vs. NYY of course, before shutting him down for the season.
  • Sept 6-8, vs BAL: This concludes an amazingly long homestand and launches the team on a rigorous road trip. And these aren’t your father’s Orioles, either. Not since Sheriff Showalter strolled into town. The Yanks have crushed the O’s this year to the tune of a 10-2 record, though under Showalter, they’re playing much better ball. They finished August 17-10 under Showalter.
  • Sept 10-12, @ TEX: Yanks are 4-1 against the Rangers and could face the Rangers in the first round of the playoffs (if the standings remain unchanged). Of course, with Texas, the Yanks get to face lefties: nemesis Cliff Lee and reliever-turned-awesome-starter CJ Wilson. Lee has been rather pedestrian post-ASB, posting a 4.30 ERA and a 2-4 record, but no one here takes their eyes off of him. He’s got a 1-0 record with a 4.11 ERA against the Yanks in 2010. Wilson, on the other hand, hasn’t let the increased workload affect him, amping up in the second half with a 7-0 record and an ERA of 1.99.
  • Sept 13-15, @ TB: And the fun begins. At least the team will escape the Texas heat for the air-conditioned (and cowbell-laden) “bliss” of Trop Field. Tampa Bay has beaten the Yanks 6 of 11 games, so it’s as close as they are in the standings. It’s likely that these games will be for playoff seeding rather than make/miss, but that won’t dampen the tenor of these games. The question is, will the Yanks be able to slow the Rays’ running ways? Between poor catching defense and the distractions that seem to wrankle the Yanks pitchers, the Rays could run wild.
  • Sept 16-19, @BAL: By the numbers, this appears to be a breather for the Yanks, but it just reeks of a “trap series”, wedged between seven games against the Rays.
  • Sept 20-23, vs TB: A four game set, at home. The winner of this series could be in a prime spot to win the division and host the first playoff games rather than get on the road. By this point, this is probably all that will hang in the balance, which is fine by me. Just get in, then worry.
  • Sept 24-26, vs BOS: Will it even matter? Of course, Boston would love nothing more than to play the role of spoiler, but at least the games are in our house. The Yanks are 7-5 against Boston this season but are an AL-best 44-22 (.667) at home. Regardless of their finish, I cannot be impressed enough with the way the Sox have stayed in the hunt amidst a gawdawful season of injuries. Pedroia, Youk, Beckett, etc. and the team is still fighting. Very impressive.
  • Sept 27-29, @ TOR: By this point, the seedings could be determined, making this a AAA exhibition. But if not, the Jays and the Toronto fans will be more than ready to welcome the Yanks.

The key to September seems to lie in the Yanks ability to capitalize on their current 10 game homestand, of which they are already 2-0. Given that they have won two of every three games at home, taking 7 of these games would be a heckuvaway to start the month. If they indeed take five of the next eight, they would have 87 wins with 22 games left to play. Playing just .500 baseball for the rest of the string would give the team 98 wins. Whether that gives the team the AL East title or not, that would be an impressive year.

If the team plays just .500 from today on, they would wind up with 97 wins.  To match that, Boston has to go 23-7.

However, questions and issues still remain, lingering, looming:

  • Andy Pettitte needs to return, healthy and effective. Too much to ask?
  • Javy has been very good as of late, out of the bullpen. Can he reclaim his rotation spot?
  • Can AJ Burnett recapture the “good AJ” and forget the “very, very bad AJ”?
  • Will ARod’s return breath some life into the team? Sure would be nice to see him out there instead of Pena.
  • Can Jeter snap this slump and his GIDP-proneness? Two questions, wrapped into one.
  • Berkman’s due to return but what does he bring? Enough to make a difference? Enough to bump the white-hot Thames? (probably)
  • Whither Granderson?
  • Will the Yanks’ catching tandem be able to slow opponents’ running games, even a bit?
  • At least the end of the bullpen (Joba, Robertson, Wood and Mo) seem to be well rested.
  • Will Ivan Nova continue to impress, B12 shots or not?

Nothing here is a given. No one here is writing off the Sox or discounting any of the Yanks’ opponents. The month is setting up like a run through the gauntlet, again. Last time, the gauntlet won.

This time will be different. Right?

 

4 Responses to “Welcome to September”

  1. Larry@IIATMS says:

    Jason, thanks for writing this.  Yes, the Yankees chances to make the post-season look good.  But they don't look that good.  There's not an easy game left on the schedule.  The team's rotation consists of C.C. and four guys whose nicknames could be "train wreck", "out of breath", "who's he?" and "hey, isn't it refreshing to see a pitcher not named Phil Hughes come out of the minors and produce, even if it is only for a couple of games so far?".  (Admittedly, that last nickname is probably not catchy enough to stick.)  A-Rod can't stay healthy. The team has a bunch of guys (Joba, Javy, Wood, Kearns, Mitre, Marte, Berkman, Thames) that they don't exactly know what to do with, and at least some of these guys are going to have to play major roles going forward.

     

    Just to point it out, the current 4-game winning streak is what saved the Yankees from having a losing record in August.

     

    Also to point it out, if you're looking for a reasonable worst case scenario for the remainder of the season, it's not having the Yankees play .500 ball or even .400 ball.  Remember how the 2000 season ended?  The Yanks dropped 15 of their last 18 games.  And that was a team that ended its season with tickertape.

     

    Sure, I like the Yanks' current position in the standings, and I get a kick out of the white flags being carried by many pundits affiliated with the Red Sox (some of these pundits have been periodically raising the white flag since April!).  But this thing is not over, and I don't care what percentages are being reported to the contrary.

     

    One last word about the Red Sox, and that word is "damn!"  Personally, I like the crew in Boston a little bit better than dental surgery.  But how they've managed to hang in there with all those injuries, I'll never know.  They're not getting much love from the fans in Boston (the so-called "Dirt Dogs" are acting more like bleating sheep), but I think they deserve the kind of standing ovation you give an injured player who manages to walk off the field under his own power.  I DO NOT count out the Red Sox.  I've seen that team rise from the dead too many times before.

  2. jon says:

    Guess I just like suspense – I sure don’t see us as a lock to go to the Post Season. (and really, if 97+% isn’t a lock, then I don’t know what is.)
     
    Even tho Boston is definitely depleted and suffering, as you point out, we’re not exactly in fine fettle.  AJ, Petite, Alex, Javy, Granderson, JETER.  Lots of names attached to lots of questions.  Questions where the answers look a lot like Pena, Kearns, Nunez, Nova, and Moseley.
     
    I’ll be watching the games.   I can only hope that they become AAA exhibition games. ;)

  3. Paul Fisher says:

    The Red Sox are missing half of their opening day lineup, including their two best players.  Their healthy starting rotation past Bucholz is not pitching that well.  Their bullpen has been a mess all season long.  They are EIGHT GAMES back, with 29 to play.  They have played two games better than their run differential indicates and and their true talent level is essentially a .500 team.  They are 28-26 since July 1st.  The Red Sox are done, done, done.  Their is nothing about this Red Sox team that suggests they could get hot enough to get within five games of the Yankees.
    It’s just not going to happen, no matter what the Yankees schedule is, are how the rotation is going. The Yankees are putting out a far superior team to the sox every single night, and will likely finish further ahead of the sox then the are right now.  Any talk of the Red sox somehow being special because of 2004 is superstitious bs.  THEY ARE DONE.