From the Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Files…
Derek Jeter is a .440 player. Not his batting average. Not his OBP. Not his OPS, slugging, SB%, success at club %. Nope, it’s Jeter’s “offensive winning percentage” this year:
Currently, a lineup of nine Jeter’s would average about four runs per game. That, with league average pitching, is good enough to win only 44 percent of the time.
For his career, Jeter’s offensive winning percentage has ranged from .502 (2008) to .781 (1999). Last season, it was .661, tied for the third-best mark of his career and within the top 20 percent of everyday major league hitters. This year’s drop, which could be a 220-point plummet, would put him in the bottom 20 percent.
Statistically speaking, a .440 offensive winning percentage at Jeter’s age (36) is an ominous sign. Rare is the everyday player who performs at that rate, at that age, who becomes statistically great again.
[...]
And don’t forget, one of Jeter’s predecessors as captain, Don Mattingly, retired after his offensive win percentage dipped to .443 in 1995.
Of course, this is all neat and handy and of no surprise to those of us watching him most days. It’s a bad year for Jeter, we get it. And ya know what? Right now, it makes little difference. The team is still 2.5 games up, owners of the best record in all of baseball. It will mean more in the post-season, but right now, it means little.
It also makes little difference in Jeter’s leverage towards his next contract. None, at least nothing meaningful.
At least Pena is hitting more, making the most of his small bit of playing time, and Nunez looks to be getting a feel of how to play the field – he isn’t Jeter, but neither is he Thames.
Since we’re stuck (blessed?) with Jeter until the heat death of the Universe, we need to focus on the players who will actually be playing down the road.
It’s going to be very interesting what the reaction to Jeter is when he’s batting .320 at this time next year.. after having passed 3,000 hits at somepoint during the season
@jon: The thing is, Jeter (and his reps) know we have no realistic alternative. We know Pena can’t hit. Can Nunez be a solid, full-time major leaguer? I dunno yet.
@Brian: I totally agree. I’m not worried about Jeter until there’s a 2 year trend. He impressed the heck outta me last year, bouncing back, particularly defensively. I don’t put anything past him.
Brian – would be quite happy to be proven wrong next year. OTOH, its also “going to be very interesting what the reaction to Jeter is” when he’s batting .220 at this time next year. And still chasing 3,000 hits.
One of us is going to be wrong – I’ll be here if you are (and if IIATMS is.)
Should we consider whether Jeter's just been unlucky this year? His BABIP is .297 this year. That's normal for most guys, but his historic BABIP is .356.
There’s a reason you don’t hear the offensive winning percentage stat bandied about too often: it’s not a very informative one. Also, you’d think that ESPN could afford someone to copy edit the following line “Currently, a lineup of nine Jeter’s would average…”
Oy.
Larry,
He's been unlucky in part… you don't have your batting average drop 70 points without some bad luck thrown in… but he isn't hitting the ball as crisply, and defenses are getting better on the whole..
I really believe once Jeter gets a fat new contract he'll have a clearer mind and hit better because of it…
I also believe the quality of Jeter's at bats will rise dramatically once the you know what gets here