Game 133: Athletics 3, Yankees 4

The Pinstripes started September by keeping their win-streak going.  A.J. Burnett took a definite step forward and the Yankee bats got to work early as they ensured a series victory against the Athletics and won their fifth straight game, beating Oakland 4-3.

Derek Jeter lead off the bottom of the first with a single to center.  Nick Swisher struck out, but Mark Teixeira followed with a double to center, scoring Jeter for the first run of the game.  Robinson Cano grounded into a fielder’s choice and Marcus Thames flied out, but the Yankees had the early 1-0 lead.

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Taking Stock of the Rotation

Starting pitching might not be something Yankee fans want to spend very much time thinking about right now, but there’s a lot to discuss on that front tonight. First of all, Andy Pettitte threw a bullpen session today and reported that he felt good about it, so hopefully that’s a signal that he’ll be back in time to get some outings under his belt before the playoffs start. Also, the Yankees announced earlier that, after a strong relief outing last night, Javier Vazquez will move back to the rotation, taking the start Saturday and bumping Dustin Moseley. And last, but certainly not least, with some people reporting that he was pitching for his job, A.J. Burnett reminded us that “inconsistent” is not exactly the same as bad. He wasn’t dominant by any stretch, but he was very solid; striking out 8 while walking 2 and allowing 6 hits and 3 runs (all earned) in 6 innings. It was a quality start in the books and, obviously, gave the team a great chance to win. Hopefully he’ll respond to the changing of the calendar the same way he did after his last awful month.

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not ready to stop worrying about the starting pitching, but today was a very good day, and things are definitely looking up.

How Much Is Too Much For Jeter?

I found this blurb from John Harper this morning fairly interesting:

“The question is whether (Brian) Cashman and the others think this is the start of a decline,” he said. “And if so, are they going to factor it into the negotiations or just pay him for being the face of the franchise all these years? Knowing Derek, he’ll say all the right things, but he won’t give an inch based on his numbers this season.”

The second former teammate essentially agreed.

“It’s up to (the Yankees),” one former player said. “Knowing Jeet, he’s not going to let an off-year, if it turns out to be an off-year, play a role in what he thinks he should get paid. He just doesn’t think like that. He’ll be more convinced than ever that he’ll come back and hit .330 next year.”

Jeter may be the ultimate team guy, but two former teammates believe that when it comes to getting paid, his pride will demand that he get something approaching A-Rod money, regardless of what he hits this season.

Complicating matters is the Alex Rodriguez contract, which has another seven years worth $209 million, plus those potential milestone home-run bonuses.

To some extent, I’m a little leery of responding to speculation passed through anonymous sources. But I’m not trying to impugn Harper, and this seems plausible enough, so here’s my question: We’ve all speculated as to what sort of contract we’d give Jeter, but how much is absolutely too much? Where’s your breaking point, where you’d be willing to cut Jeter loose and move on? And what sort of negotiating strategy would you use behind the scenes?

Welcome to September

Amazingly enough, it’s September 1st. Fast summer, eh? Yesterday, Mark took a look at the races in each division, as well as some other stuff in the NL, and probably angered the Baseball Gods a bit. Today, let’s get a bit closer to home and see what the Yanks have on tap, probably further angering the Gods. (In penance, I offer up Chan Ho Park as a sacrifice.)

According to Sportsclubstats.com (thank you Adam), the Yanks have a 99% chance of making the playoffs, same as the Rays. And our friends some 200 miles to the North: Just a 1.8% chance. [Defined as: Sports Club Stats calculates each team’s odds of making the playoffs, how each upcoming game will impact those odds, and how well they have to finish out to have a shot. It knows the season schedule and scores for past games. Each night it grabs any new scores from the internet and simulates the rest of the season by randomly picking scores for each remaining game. The weighted method takes the opponents record and home field advantage into account when randomly picking scores, so the better team is more likely to win.]

And ESPN pegs the Yankees’ playoff chances at 98.2% and the Rays at 97.9%, essentially a tie. No surprises here. They’re a “bit” more generous to the Sox and gives them a 3.0% chance.

Note to Baseball Gods: I don’t make the odds; I’m just noting them.

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You chose wrong

Tyler Kepner has some interesting anecdotes about just how close the Yanks came to trading Robbie Cano in the 2004 ARod trade, but the Texas Rangers chose Joaquin Arias instead. The same Arias that was just traded to the Mets for Frenchy Francoeur:

In 2003, the year before the A-Rod trade, Arias hit .266 at low-Class A Battle Creek in the Yankees’ farm system. He was one of five prospects the Yankees offered to Texas as the player to be named in the deal. Arias was 19 at the time, and a more polished defender than Cano, who was 21 and had just hit .277 between Class A Tampa and Class AA Trenton. The Rangers chose Arias.

[...]

“Thank God we never traded him,” Gordon Blakeley, a special assistant to Yankees General Manager Brian Cashman, told The Times in 2008. “We liked him a lot and we didn’t want to give him away, but he wasn’t a ‘No, don’t trade him for any cost’ guy. If we felt we could get a Beltran or an A-Rod, he could have gone in a deal. We were fortunate.”

Gee, ya think? Whew.

Quote of the Day

“His stuff is real … and it’s spectacular.”

-Big League Stew’s David Brown, on Aroldis Chapman

Seriously, if you didn’t see Chapman pitch last night, you missed an amazing display. His slider was so good, Gameday still doesn’t know what to call it.

And yes, I’m a little bit angry that the Yankees didn’t sign him.

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