Looking At Mo and Joba

Two interesting articles regarding the two most important Yankee relievers were published today. The first (from RLYW) is about Mariano Rivera, and bodes well for 2011:

It’s a good bet he will need to be used less and less frequency because a 40-41 year old body just doesn’t recover like one that’s 30. That’s a legitimate point in discussing Rivera’s value, because value is not just about rate of performance. You’re not very valuable if you aren’t pitching.

Just because he’s now turned 40, there’s very little reason in his statistical record to think that he’s about to fall off a cliff. He certainly could, and he’s got the same risk any pitcher does of hurting his arm and becoming worthless….

Rivera’s CAIRO projection is still top tier for all relief pitchers, and it does include both aging and some component regression to the mean for his FIP and xFIP. For CAIRO, his projection for runs allowed is based on 35% RA, 30% ERA, 15% FIP, 10% xFIP, and 15% component ERA.

Click here to read the rest

Closers and the Hall of Fame

To me, the most interesting new name on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot (which has no shortage of debatable, interesting candidates) is John Franco. His career numbers:

Year Age Tm Lg W L ERA G GF SV IP H R ER HR BB SO ERA+ WHIP SO/BB
21 Seasons 90 87 2.89 1119 774 424 1245.2 1166 466 400 81 495 975 138 1.333 1.97
162 Game Avg. 5 5 2.89 68 47 26 76 71 28 24 5 30 59 138 1.333 1.97
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/30/2010.

As far as closers go, Franco was one of the best of his time. He pitched a ton of innings deep into his 40s, posted a 138 ERA+, and is 4th all time in saves. He will no double garner a few Hall of Fame votes this year based on the saves alone. But does he really deserve to be there?

It has been my long-held belief that relief pitchers for the most part should not be in the Hall of Fame.… Click here to read the rest

Steve Strasburg, Pink Jerseys and the Derek Jeter Saga

The following is a guest post from David Meadvin, who previously penned “A common-sense approach to contracts” and “The Strasburg experience from someone who was there” for Yankeeist.

Two days after Stephen Strasburg made his record-breaking debut for the Washington Nationals this past summer, my friend’s one-year-old girl was tottering around the house in a brand-new #37 jersey. She wasn’t alone. In fact, I was at that first start vs. the Pirates on June 8th. Before the last out was recorded, the line to the team’s clubhouse shop stretched practically around the concourse, and the next day, it seemed like everyone in the DC area was wearing one.

I should be clear off the bat: I’m confident that before long, Derek Jeter and the Yankees will agree to a new contract that’ll keep the captain in pinstripes for the rest of his career. But if his free agency evolved from a cat-and-mouse game between the team and their franchise player to a real bidding war with multiple teams, I wouldn’t be shocked.… Click here to read the rest

Discussion: Pettitte Or Jeter?

We’ve already had something similar to this here at TYU. You can still see it over on the sidebar: If the Yankees could only afford one of the two, which one would you want them to select: Cliff Lee or Derek Jeter?

Today, I come with a similar question. Let’s throw out all the contract demands. Let’s throw out all the talk we’ve heard since the season ended about both players and where they’ll be in 2011 (for now at least)

Let’s also make some assumptions:

1. Each player wants just a one year contract.
2. Each player wants the same amount of money; for simplicity’s sake, we’ll call it $X.
3. The Yankees have a budget and have only $X to spend.

The argument for Jeter:
1. He’s in the lineup every day.
2. It’s harder to hide an everyday player, like a replacement level SS, than it is to hide a fourth or fifth starter.
3. He’s less likely to succumb to injury than Pettitte.… Click here to read the rest