Discussion: Hall of Fame Ballot Debuts

The 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot was released today. I’ve broken up the candidates into 3 groups: those I think should get in, those who have a case, and those who have no chance. Chime in with your list in the comments. I’ll discuss the borderline candidates in greater detail over the next few weeks.

No Chance
John Olerud
BJ Surhoff
Marquis Grissom
John Franco
Bret Boone
Al Leiter
Benito Santiago
Carlos Baerga
Raul Mondesi
Bobby Higginson
Wilson Alvarez
Rey Sanchez
Charles Johnson
Jose Offerman
Ugueth Urbina
Ismael Valdez
Dan Wilson
Paul Quantrill
Cal Eldred
Kirk Reuter
Steve Reed
Harold Baines
Juan Gonzalez
Tino Martinez

Has A Case
Don Mattingly
Fred McGriff
Rafael Palmeiro
Jack Morris
Dale Murphy
Dave Parker
Lee Smith
Larry Walker
Kevin Brown

Should Get In
Roberto Alomar
Jeff Bagwell
Bert Blyleven
Barry Larkin
Edgar Martinez
Tim Raines
Alan Trammell
Mark McGwire

0 thoughts on “Discussion: Hall of Fame Ballot Debuts

  1. T.O. Chris

    Edgar Martinez has no real chance at getting in he put up some great numbers but he didn’t give value to his club in any other way than with the bat and to me if you are going to put a pretty much career DH in the hall his numbers have to be so outstanding and so Ruthian that there is no question of their value.

    Kevin Brown whether he should or not will never make it and you can put Mcgwire in the no chance category as well, he had a good career hitting HRs but Mark isn’t even in the same league with Bonds or Alex Rodriguez and thus it’s much harder to say what he would be if it weren’t for steroids, I also think his “confession” will hurt his chances if he ever had any because he didn’t actually take any blame wether it’s right or not the sports writers want more than “I did it and it never helped me” I mean the guy said he would have the exact same numbers without juice.

    With Alex and Bonds you know that you have HOF guys who just happened to take steroids at one point in their career but with Mark is he a hall of famer without 500 HRs? No, would he have 500 without steroids? Probably not from just a health perspective…. I mean he is in the same category as Mark Reynolds and Carlos Pena for having 25+ HRs and a sub .200 BA.

    What do I know though I thought Alomar should have been a guaranteed first ballot hall of famer and I still can’t believe Blyleven isn’t in, the whole thing is a sham really I mean seriously it’s the “hall of fame” yet Pete Rose and Shoeless Joe Jackson aren’t in and most likely Bonds and Arod never will be.

  2. T.O. Chris

    I know wins aren’t everything and they seem to become more irrelavent every day but how can the winningest player of the 80′s and a man who pitched 10 scoreless innings in game 7 of the World Series not be in the Hall? Jack Morris may not have the best ERA ever (3.9 career) but this was a guy who cared not about stats or personal achievements but soley cared about winning. Morris didn’t care if he won the game 1-0 or 12-7 just so long as the team won the game and when he had to the man was a bear trap notting letting a run escape his grasp, Morris is more than deserving of the hall of fame and is IMO a better pitcher than Bert Blyleven who also deserves to be in.

    • Moshe Mandel

      There have been a number of studies on Morris’ career that show the whole pitching to the score thing simply was not true. And who cares if he was the winningest of the 80′s, that’s an arbitrary period. Dave Stieb pitched during the same time, about, and was a better pitcher, but no one touts him for the Hall.

      • T.O. Chris

        So since an era of pitching was weak no one gets in the hall from that time period? I don’t think that’s what your saying but that’s how it’s coming off.

        Any good pitcher knows you pitch according to the score board there is no reason to pitch like it’s a 0-0 game when your winning by 8 it just doesn’t make sense, every pitch you throw in the 0-0 game could be the ball game so therefore every single pitch has to be well thought out or just well thrown (given a pitchers skill set) which requires you to mix pitches and coax hitters to swing out of the zone but in a game your winning 8-0 you throw fastballs for strikes because a solo HR isn’t the ball game but walking guys is a sure way to get pulled and start a rally.

        Maybe the stats don’t show Morris as pitching to the score board I see it with Sabathia all the time he may not want to give up any runs but he is a lot less careful with a big lead because he knows he gets to be the one on the offensive pounding strikes and throwing fastballs.

        If that’s not how you see pitching that’s fine I could be wrong but I believe any smart pitcher knows the difference in pitching for stats and pitching to win…. Managers don’t bring in the infield to cut off a run in a blowout to help the pitchers ERA and only an idiot would rather get a strikeout than a 1 pitch ground out, guys play for stats some just more often are willing to play for wins which I think is true of most of the great pitchers.

        Say Morris didn’t pitch to the score because he isn’t a great pitcher but don’t say the idea is bullshit because it isn’t.

        • Moshe Mandel

          The philosophy may be true, but the numbers show that it doesnt actually show results. Meaning, pitchers may be trying to pitch differently, but the results are largely the same.

        • No, he’s saying “the 1980′s” is arbitrary. There are a ton of great pitchers from the 80′s, but if they didn’t start their careers until 1982 or 1983 they weren’t going to catch up to Morris in wins for that decade. It’s a weak argument. Joe Carter led all of baseball in HR and RBI over a 12 year period. He’s not close to a Hall of Famer.

          The pitching to the score argument is simply false.

          • T.O. Chris

            Joe Carter had a career .306 career OBP. And was under a .460 SLG for his career all he did was swing for long balls and not much else…. That comparison to Jack Morris’ wins is ridiculous, Carter could swing as hard as he wanted everytime but as long as he hit 1 out once he had a good game in order to win 109 games over a 6 year period you have to be more than a 1 dimensional pitcher.

            A much better comparison would be to a pitcher who led the 80′s in strikeouts since that doesn’t require any multifacited success.

    • The “pitching to the score” argument is beyond insane. There is no time limit in baseball, so at no point in time would you want to give up runs because you have a lead. The argument is that with a lead you are more willing to throw strikes. Well not throwing strikes is a guaranteed recipe for disaster, so in any situation, more strikes are better, whether you are up 1 or 10.

      There is no data to support that Morris pitched to the score. His career OPS against in the following situations:

      Tie Game: .692
      Within 1R: .684
      Within 2R: .691
      Within 3R: .691
      Within 4R: .693
      Margin >4R: .699

      Narratives are fun, just usually untrue.

    • Damian

      A brief comparison:

      Jack Morris’ career WAR is 39.3 in 18 seasons. Bert Blyleven’s career WAR is 90.1 in 22 seasons. Look at those numbers. It isn’t close. If you don’t like WAR, then look at this: Blyleven has 32 more career shutouts than Morris, 1,300 more strikeouts, 68 fewer walks, 1,100 more IP. Blyleven’s career WHIP is 1.198; Morris’s is 1.296. Blyleven’s career ERA+ is 118; Morris’s is 105. Blyleven’s career ERA is 3.31; Morris’s is 3.90. Morris is better?

      Morris threw a great game 7 shutout in the WS, and he gets credit for that. In fact, he constantly gets credit for that. But if postseason success is the metric by which you judge these guys, Blyleven has a lower ERA and WHIP in his limited postseasons. The only time they played each other in the postseason was on October 8, 1987, in the ALCS. Twins defeat Tigers 6-3; winning pitcher Blyleven losing pitcher Morris.

      • T.O. Chris

        Fangraphs has Jack Morris’ career WAR at 52 and there is no WAR data for the first 3 years of his career where did you get your stats? For future refrence.

        • Moshe Mandel

          He’s likely using Baseball Reference, or the source of the BB-Ref data:

          http://baseballprojection.com/war/playerindex.htm

          • T.O. Chris

            So for future stats baseball refrence over fangraphs?

          • Moshe Mandel

            For historical issues, yes. For current stats, depends on how you feel about UZR. I like wOBA from Fangraphs for offense, but Im very down on UZR and similar defensive metrics.

          • T.O. Chris

            wOBA has started to become one of my favorite stats I like being able to actually put a little weight on how someone gets on base and be able to tell the difference in Manny Ramirez with a .400 OBP and a Nick Johnson .400 OBP.

            I have mixed feelings on UZR I like the actual zone rating score more than the UZR it’s self though since it is suppose to be a little more accurate at judging how you do on routine plays but I just don’t get how Teixeira and Robinson Cano can have negative UZR’s when they are so talented defensivley to the naked eye.

  3. Tripp

    Come on, no love for Ugy Urbina? You’re telling me that hiring someone to kill another person doesn’t get you in the Hall of Fame?

  4. Moshe Mandel

    After a lot of discussion on Twitter, I think it is fair to say that if I made one mistake here, it is that Olerud should be in the “has a case” category. I underrated him, and I bet the voters will as well.

    • T.O. Chris

      Olerud didn’t carry a big enough bat for a firstbaseman to be a hall of famer to me, he was a wizz at getting on base and a .390 career OBP is impressive no matter who you are but he never really competed for an MVP and often times he wasn’t even the best player on his team let alone the league. I like Olerud but to me he seems more like a “hall of very good” not hall of fame but I guess many of you would have Morris in the hall of very good so different strokes.

      • Moshe Mandel

        I agree, I would not vote for him. But he has a better case than I thought upon first glance.

  5. T.O. Chris

    Over the prime years of Morris’ career which I defined as being the 6 best consecutive years of his career before his first drop off due to age Morris stacks up well enough to belong in the Hall of Fame, over that time he racked up 1559 IP to the tune of a 3.46 ERA with a win-loss record of 109-67 while having a respectable 6.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.2 K/BB ratio with a WAR in that time of 22. He ended his career with 2479 Ks, 254 Ws and 175 CGs.

    After doing all the numbers on Bert and his prime years he is in fact the better pitcher between the two and the comparison was a bad one after reviewing the numbers (however it reinforced my outrage that Bert still isn’t in the hall himself) but there is clearly more than a case for Morris being in the HOF, for the better part of a decade he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and he helped his team win in the playoffs and regular season at an exceptional level late into his career.

  6. T.O. Chris

    Kevin Brown had 6 seasons with a 3.00 ERA or below after age 32? Aren’t pitchers suppose to wear down with age? Haha maybe he can give Cliff Lee some “lessons” on prolonging glory late haha.

  7. T.O. Chris

    I agree, I would not vote for him. But he has a better case than I thought upon first glance.  

    Looking at his numbers I was a little surprised to see that .390 OBP and I didn’t realize he slugged that well for his career, I guess the further away from his prime he got the more he gets remembered for being a bench player and his accident in the field.

  8. Disco

    Good list. I might throw Walker and Brown into the list of deserving people, but all the tiers seem accurate imo.

  9. mister d

    Over the prime years of Morris’ career which I defined as being the 6 best consecutive years of his career before his first drop off due to age Morris stacks up well enough to belong in the Hall of Fame, over that time he racked up 1559 IP to the tune of a 3.46 ERA with a win-loss record of 109-67 while having a respectable 6.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.2 K/BB ratio with a WAR in that time of 22. He ended his career with 2479 Ks, 254 Ws and 175 CGs.After doing all the numbers on Bert and his prime years he is in fact the better pitcher between the two and the comparison was a bad one after reviewing the numbers (however it reinforced my outrage that Bert still isn’t in the hall himself) but there is clearly more than a case for Morris being in the HOF, for the better part of a decade he was one of the best pitchers in baseball and he helped his team win in the playoffs and regular season at an exceptional level late into his career.  (Quote)

    If all you look at are the 6 best seasons then Donnie, Bernie, Albert Belle and Mo Vaughn all belong in the Hall.

  10. EJ Fagan

    I feel like John Franco will get far too many votes on the basis of his career saves.