In the grand baseball scheme of things, Alex Rodriguez had a solid, if unspectacular season in 2010, posting the 4th-best fWAR (3.9) among third basemen in the American League. However, the gap between A-Rod and the third-best fWARs (Jose Bautista and Evan Longoria at 6.9 each) was pretty massive, and along with the fact that Alex recorded career lows in a host of meaningful statistical categories it’s hard to characterize A-Rod’s 2010 anything other than a disappointment.
However, there are a lot of encouraging signs pointing to an A-Rod recovery in 2011. Though his power stroke went missing for much of the season, he seemed to find it during the last two months of the year. More distressingly, the most significant decline in A-Rod’s game was his OBP, which, at a career-low .341, was his worst full-season mark since 1999’s .357. The good news is that so far both projection systems that have been released see an OBP bump for Alex in 2011, with Bill James forecasting a (perhaps overly optimistic) 40-point jump to .381, while SG’s CAIRO system sees Alex at .372.… Click here to read the rest