Thanks for a great 2010!

On behalf of the entire team here at IIATMS, best wishes for a safe, healthy and happy 2011.

Thank you very much for choosing to spend some of your time and thoughts with us. 2010 was a special year for us thanks to all of you.

Be safe tonight; we want you to hang around to party with us in 2011!

Don Mattingly, Outfielder?

Amidst my time spent looking at pictures of baseball cards for my posting earlier today, there were several interesting little tidbits that jumped out at me:

  • Biggio in catcher’s gear
  • Gwynn’s jeri-curl
  • Maddux’s pedo-stache
  • Schilling’s equally troubling pedo-stache
  • Mo, By Dockers
  • David Arias (pre-Ortiz)
  • Pedro’s mullet (and ‘stache)
  • CC’s ‘stache (noticing a trend? ‘Staches on 20 year olds are never a good idea)
  • Sosa bunting (and that his in-the-prime picture featured elastic sleeves so he could show off the guns)

But most interesting to me is that they have Don Mattingly listed as OF-1B. I grew up with Donnie Baseball but I never, ever remembered him playing anywhere but first base. So I checked. And whaddya know, there it is: Don Mattingly, outfielder.

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The problem with believing everything our eyes see

There has been a very healthy and strong debate about the Hall of Fame, particularly from two of the industry’s heavyweights: Joe Posnanski and Jeff Pearlman. This debate focuses on Jeff Bagwell most specifically, but really, it’s a proxy for most of the players who played at least part of their career during “The Steroid Era”. To set this up, first Joe Pos:

2. Jeff Bagwell — though he never tested positive for steroids, never was implicated in any public way, was not named in the Mitchell Report or by anyone on the record as a suspected user, and is not even on this rather comprehensive list of players linked to steroids or HGH — seems to have become in some voters’ minds a player who used performance-enhancing drugs.

I can’t even begin to describe my disgust at No. 2 … it makes me absolutely sick to my stomach. This is PRECISELY what I was talking about when I said how much I hate the character clause in the Hall of Fame voting. I think it encourages people to believe their own nonsense, to stand up on high and be judge and jury. It’s something that my friend Bill James calls the “I see it in his eyes” tripe. Bill has finished a book on crime — it is, he says, actually about crime books as much as crime — and one thing he kept running into in his research was people who claimed that they could pinpoint the murderer because “it was in their eyes.” Well, as Bill says, that’s a whole lot of garbage. Eyes are eyes. Some people look guilty when they’re innocent, and some people look innocent when they’re guilty, and most people don’t look innocent OR guilty except when we want to see that something in their eyes. Oh, but we love to believe we know. It’s one of the flaws of humanity. And the Hall of Fame character clause gives voters carte blanche to judge the eyes and hearts and souls of players.

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Should We Worry about the Rest of the AL East?

After I took a look at the Yankees on Monday, I thought it would be an interesting exercise to take a similar look at the Yankees’ main competition in the Red Sox and the Rays. Over the off-season, the two teams seem to have gone in drastically different directions. Theo Epstein continued to spend big in money and prospects to ensure that the Red Sox made a better showing than their 89-win 2010, which really isn’t that bad, but Andrew Friedman and the Rays have scaled back, hoping their excellent farm system will soften the blow of losing Carl Crawford, Rafael Soriano, and others. Not surprisingly, the outlooks for each of those teams is night and day as the Red Sox look like Jean Grey (Famke Janssen is hot) and the Rays look like Meg with her superpower nails. Meanwhile, the Yankees appear somewhere in the middle, though closer to the Red Sox than the Rays. But appearances can be deceiving, so let’s take a look.

Boston Red Sox

Scutaro/Lowrie and Cameron/Ellsbury’s projections are based on them splitting duties. I’m not sure how that will work, but I essentially cut their production in half from what I’d thought they’d do over a full season.

(click “view full post” to read more)

“Plan B”

Lately there’s been a pretty common meme spring up, particularly amongst the segment of Yankee fans who really don’t like Brian Cashman, that the Yankees’ general manager didn’t have a “plan B” to execute in the event that Cliff Lee spurned the Yankees and signed somewhere else. It has a certain kind of superficial truth to it, I suppose, since the Yankees still haven’t acquired a starting pitcher, but it falls apart as soon as you go much deeper than the skin.

The first, most obvious, problem with the Plan B’ers is that they’re more or less ignoring that a contingency plan is still constrained by the reality of limited availability. Plan B to signing Cliff Lee obviously can’t be, say, “sign Francisco Liraino,” because Liriano isn’t a free agent. Nor can it be “trade for Felix Hernandez,” because Seattle simply won’t trade Felix for anything less than a package that starts with Jesus Montero and Phil Hughes/Robinson Cano. Believe it or not, this honestly seems lost on quite a few Plan B’ers.

(Click “view full post” to continue reading)

Simulpost on ESPNNY: Soria vs. Soriano

ORIGINAL POSTING HERE (though edited from my original draft due to length; images below do not appear on ESPN)

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The best free agent relief pitcher not named Mariano Rivera remains unsigned.

Rafael Soriano, as Buster Olney noted yesterday, was among the top closers in MLB last year. His stats were excellent, highlighted by a very low WHIP of 0.802 and a strong K/BB ratio of 4.07. His K rate dipped from 12.13 per 9 IP in 2009 as a member of the Atlanta Braves to 8.23 per 9 in the AL East as a member of the Tampa Bay Rays, however his home run rate remained low at 0.58 HR/9 IP. By almost every metric, Soriano was a top reliever last year and we would expect him to remain one in 2011. Except his injury history can’t be overlooked, as Buster also points out.

With so many middle relievers receiving multi-year deals, Soriano and his agent, Scott Boras, are certainly looking for a very big payday. Note however that many teams are reluctant to part with a first-round pick as compensation, as Soriano’s a Type A free agent. Adding Soriano to the Yanks’ bullpen wouldn’t quite make up for their starting rotation’s shortcomings, but it would certainly provide a formidable front to any team looking to make a comeback against Soriano and Rivera late in the game. Manager Joe Girardi could feel comfortable resting Mo regularly with Soriano as a well-compensated security blanket.

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An Open Letter to Andy Pettitte

Dear Andy,

I don’t want to sound desperate or anything but…please come back! Pretty please?! With sugar and candy and $15 million on top?

Frankly, most of us don’t really know what to do with ourselves since Cliff Lee spurned “our” checkbook for the, um, warm embrace of Philadelphia. And really, it’s no so much the money, it’s the rejection in favor of Philadelphia! Who likes Philly more than they like New York? Philly fans, that’s who! I’d call Philly a poor man’s NYC, but that’d be giving it too much credit. I mean, the Bleacher Creatures may give other teams a hard time, but they vomit on you in Philly. They boo Santa Claus? I know you can’t abide that.

And you know what else I don’t think you can abide? Lee saying he wanted to go to the place he had the best place to win championships, and rejecting the Yankees. The same Yankees you’ve helped carry to 5 championships in the past 15 seasons. That’s one ring every 3 seasons! How many other franchises in North American sports can say they’ve done that? Not the Phillies. Are you going to stand for that slap in the face to the organization and its fans who you’ve given so much effort and dedication to and who, in return, have loved you right back since 1996?

But forget all of that Andy, and let me drop whatever pretense of non-desperation I might have maintained. The bottom line is; we need you Andy. NEED you. You’re the best pitcher left on the market and after you, the only remotely decent pitcher left is Carl @$#%in’ Pavano. You know as well as I do that he’s never wearing a Yankee uniform again. So without you Andy, there’s a really good chance we’ll have to watch Sergio Mitre make 20+ starts. You wouldn’t want us to have to suffer through that would you? After all of the good times we’ve had together, surely you want to save us from that. Right?

We want to give you a proper send off. We want to treat you to your very own Paul O’Neill moment when you throw your final pitch in Yankee Stadium, hopefully in the World Series. But most of all Andy, we want, we need, you to pitch. Just this one last time. For us. For the memories. For the New York Yankees.

We’re going to love you no matter what you decide to do Andy. You’re going to have a plaque in Monument Park, and you’ll probably get your number retired too, and a lot of us will bite, scratch, and kick to get tickets to Andy Pettitte Day if that’s what it takes. But I’ll be honest, we’ll love you just a little bit more if you save us from Sergio Mitre in 2011. Help us Andy Pettitte, you might be the only one who can.

Best regards,

Brien

Simulpost on ESPNNY: Throwing logic out the window: Manny vs. Thome

ORIGINAL POSTING HERE

Fact: The Yankees plan on using Jorge Posada as the primary DH for the 2011 season. When Posada is not DHing, the DH role will be used to give the aging left side of the infield a day off per week.

With no obvious need for a designated hitter, all discussions about the Yanks’ reported discussions about Manny Ramirez (since refuted) appear to be merely academic. Or comedic, depending on your point of view.

However, another longtime DH remains a free agent and if the Yankees were looking for a power bat to come off the bench and DH a little bit, the team might want to consider Jim Thome.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Nolan Ryan, unplugged

A nice, honest interview with Nolan Ryan can be found here. A favorite part:

Do you think those enormous contract are good for the health of baseball?

(click “view full post” to read more)

ESPNNY Simulpost: The bottom of the barrel is in sight

ORIGINALLY POSTED ON ESPNNY

I’m happy to be filling in for Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews this week. A bit about me: I am the founder and lead writer of the ESPN-affiliated SweetSpot Network site, It’s About The Money. You can follow me and my writers on Twitter.

It’s December 27th and the New York Yankees are still waiting to hear from Andy Pettitte. The final two rotation spots will, as of right now, be filled by the likes of Ivan Nova and Sergio Mitre. Like most of you, these options don’t fill me with confidence, though we’re not hitting the panic button just yet.

The free agent options for the Yanks are dwindling fast, with Brandon Webb signing with the Rangers yesterday. Webb, once a Cy Young winner, is now just another pitcher recovering from a serious shoulder injury. And shoulder injuries, unlike elbows, are much more difficult to return from.

So who could be a possible target for the Yanks to fill in the back end of the rotation? The choices aren’t inspiring.

(click “view full post” to read more

Guest blogging on ESPNNY

In a last minute call-up, I will be guest blogging on ESPN New York this week, filling in for Andrew Marchand and Wallace Matthews. I will be simulposting here as well, but make sure you guys join the comments section over at ESPN, too.

I’m open to topics and mailbag items, so don’t be shy!

The rest of the crew will be active here, at least as much as practical.

Trying to Convince Everyone Not to Worry

He-Who-Must-Not-Be-Named didn’t sign with New York, Zack Greinke was traded to the Brewers, Matt Garza probably won’t be traded within the division (I don’t think you want him anyway), Carl Pavano is the best free-agent left but won’t come back to New York, and Felix Hernandez will not be traded to New York. Oh no! What will the Yankees do? It’s okay. I’m here to show you why.

The “Team Total” is the number of wins added by the players over replacement plus the number of games that a replacement-level team would theoretically win (48). Anyone not in the table that played for the Yankees last season accumulated 0 fWAR +/-0.1 and were not worth putting in the table. Let it also be known that this was not “scientifically” done and should be taken as a rough estimate.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Snowy Sunday linkaround

Greetings from a snowy Sunday in suburban NYC. Here’s some reading material in case you’re favorite NFL team is not play, playing poorly or you just want some baseball stuff to nibble on during halftime:

Who’s up for some sledding tomorrow?

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