As I was watching Sportscenter the other day, I saw a clip of Jim Thome hitting a monster home run off the top of the American flag in Target Field. It was a massive blast. Then, it occurred to me that I’ve seen an awful lot of this lately from Thome. So, I decided to go take a look at his stats for this season, and what I saw surprised me. What I saw might shock a few of you. What I saw will probably make you a little sick.

Heading into the off-season, Thome’s future was uncertain. The White Sox had sent him to the Los Angeles Dodgers during the previous season, and they didn’t want him back. The feeling around baseball was that if Thome wanted a job that it would be a small, both in playing time and salary, gig. Thome was just getting too old as he headed into his age-40 season. Several teams could have used a starting DH. The Angels chose Hideki Matsui. The Mariners chose Ken Griffey, Jr./Mike Sweeney. Texas chose Vladimir Guerrero. Oakland chose to be awful. The Royals chose Mike Jacobs. The Rays chose to stick with Pat Burrell. And the Yankees chose Nick Johnson. Jim Thome ended up signing up with the Twins for $1.5 million and a back-up job as the DH spot became a combination of whoever didn’t play the OF, Joe Mauer when he wasn’t catching, and Thome.

We all know how this worked out. Matsui was awful until recently, Griffey/Sweeney fell asleep, and the other didn’t work out with the exception of Guerrero’s awesome first half but substandard second half. The Yankees’ selection, Johnson, ended up on the DL (predictably), and they felt compelled to trade for Lance Berkman. The Yankees could have had Thome, but they didn’t. Instead, Thome has gone on to an amazing season.

click “view full post” to read more

You might have missed it amongst all of the hand-wringing about the various problems the Yankees have with the team at the moment, especially the general worry about a shaky starting rotation, but the Bombers bullpen has emerged as a heckuva good unit. Jason already broke Kerry Wood down, but it’s worth considering what the rest of the middle relievers have done.

Since being brought back from AAA, Boone Logan has been a pleasant surprise, pitching particularly effectively against left-handed batters. Given the left-handed power bats that feature prominently in the lineup of both the Twins and the Rangers, Logan figures to be an important piece of the Yankees ALDS success, or lack thereof.

From the other side, David Robertson isn’t the second-coming by any means, but he’s again sporting a monstrous strikeout rate (10.91, to be exact), and because of that has proven to be pretty effective coming in to situations with runners on base.

And even Joba Chamberlain, though probably the weakest link of the bunch, has been much more effective since the All-Star break, pitching to a 4.18 ERA, allowing 29 baserunners, and striking out 22 batters in 23 innings pitched.

The really nice thing about having such a deep bullpen is that it means that Joe Girardi doesn’t necessarily have to rely on a shaky starter in the playoffs to get through the middle innings. Indeed, it’s not inconceivable at all that the bullpen could pitch 5 or 6 innings if, say, A.J. Burnett doesn’t bring his command with him to the park in one of his starts. It wouldn’t be ideal by any means, but with this much talent and depth, plus the built in off days in the playoff schedule, it could certainly end up being a much better option than letting one of the starters struggle through the 5th inning. More hopefully, having this many options will let Girardi work ideal match-up scenarios to get batters out in the second half of the game, making it as difficult as possible for the opposition.

And oh yeah, I almost forgot the 5th head of this beast. Some kid named Mariano Rivera. An anonymous scout told me he might make something of himself in this game.

If the major league playoffs are half as exciting as the Minor League playoffs have been, we will be in for a treat come October.  The Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees and Trenton Thunder both continued their first round of playoffs Thursday night, picking up a pair of extra inning victories, although not without some controversy.

Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees (AAA)
After Jesus Montero was officially shelved for the rest of the season, Scranton put together an inspired game.  An early lead was not good enough as the Columbus Clippers tied things up in the late innings, but the Yankees pulled off the extra-inning win before heading back to Pennsylvania for Game 3.

Much like game one, Justin Christian got Scranton started with a solo homer in the top of the third giving the Yankees an early 1-0 lead.  The game stayed close through the early innings, but the Yankees looked like they were pulling away in the sixth.  Kevin Russo reached first on an error and stole second.  He moved to third on Juan Miranda’s fly out.  Chad Huffman then followed with a two out homer.  Eric Bruntlett followed with a solo shot and the Yankees were up 4-0, chasing former Yankee prospect Zach McAllister from the game.  The Clippers finally got on the board in the bottom of the inning.  A single by Ezequiel Carrera started things for Columbus.  A homer by Wes Hodges made the score 4-2.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Good to hear Cashman talk about the setting of the playoff rotation based upon a meritocracy, not based upon paycheck sizes:

“Everything will be decided in these last three weeks,” Cashman said Wednesday night. “The guys who we think give us the best chance to win are the guys who are going to pitch.”

[...]

“Aside from CC, nothing is guaranteed for anyone,” Cashman said. “Some guys who are starters now may wind up pitching out of the bullpen. We’ll make that determination based on how well they perform down the stretch for us.”

Also good to hear that he won’t be rushing Pettitte back, as I hoped out loud here:

Pettitte pitched four innings of two-hit ball, struck out four, walked none and uncorked two wild pitches in his appearance. Cashman said he is likely to make another rehab start before being reactivated.

“We don’t want him rehabbing in the major leagues,” Cashman said.

Thanks to Craig at HBT and one of his readers for taking this picture of a sign at the HOF. This is a wonderful way to acknowledge the “issue” of PEDs in baseball and should be included in every voting package. It’s the perfect way to get some of these BBWAA guys off their high moral horses and vote for the best players of the era. We, the fans, will benefit from the “perspective of time” and decide how WE want to view the clean, the dirty and the otherwise unknown.

“Honestly and impartially“. Take note, voters.

As most of us are waiting for the MLB playoffs to get here, the Minor Leagues are already seeing some post-season action.  The Trenton Thunder and Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees have both seen successful seasons and kicked off the first round of their respective playoffs last night, while the Tampa Yankees just finished a sweep of the Dunedin Blue Jays in the Florida State League semifinals.  The Charleston Riverdogs, Staten Island Yankees and Gulf Coast League Yankees all failed to make the playoffs.  I thought it would be fun to do small recaps of the Minor League playoffs for you all this season.  They will not be as in depth as the MLB recaps, but I will try to make it as informative as possible.  As always, let me know what you think.  And without further ado…

Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees (AAA)
With Jesus Montero on the bench and listed as day-to-day due to an infection in his leg, the Yankees had a tough game ahead of them when they faced off against the Columbus Clippers Wednesday night.  D.J. Mitchell gave up a homer in the bottom of the first inning to Columbus outfielder, Ezequiel Carrera, but settled down.  In the top of the third, however, Scranton got a rally going.  Justin Christian tied things up with a solo homer to left center and P.J. Pilittere followed with a line drive double to left.  Reid Gorecki picked up an RBI single and the Yankees took a 2-1 lead.

Unfortunately, the Clippers got a run back in the bottom of the inning, once again spurred on by Carrera, who sparked things with a double to right.  An error by Christian and a sac fly from Wes Hodges put the game tied at 2-2.  Small rallies in the fourth and sixth gave the Clippers a 4-2 lead, but Scranton battled back. A RBI single by Christian scored Chad Huffman in the top of the seventh, and Jorge Vazquez lead off the top of the ninth with a game tying homer to center.  Eric Wordekemper kept Columbus scoreless in the bottom of the inning, sending the game into extra innings.  The Yankees went down in order in the top of the tenth and Amaury Sanit took the mound in the bottom half.  He gave up a single to Jerad Head, which was followed by a two-run walk-off homer by Luke Carlin, giving Columbus the 6-4 victory and 1-0 edge in the best of five series.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Larry from the Yankeeist has a must-read interview with Alex Langsam of the Pittsburgh Pirates. Besides some very well thought-out questions, the answers Mr. Langsam provided are both lengthy and equally well thought-out. To wit:

In my experience, working in a front office has been an incredible amount of hard work in an environment where you’re surrounded by a group of people that jump out of bed each and every morning really fired up about building a better ballclub. There’s really no one who is just going through the motions, and that makes every day exciting and meaningful. We’re a pretty small group in the office so we each get involved in many different areas, but I’m specifically responsible for transactions and interacting with the Commissioner’s Office, rules issues and interpretation, roster management, dealing with the arbitration process, helping out with coordinating our pro scouting, some player evaluation (statistical and scouting), the trade and free agent process, helping with our International efforts, as well as all the other minutiae that’s not as glamorous but needs to get done (e.g. getting our minor league coaches to sign various forms or getting copies of our international players’ visas to Human Resources). I’ve also been lucky enough to be involved in the amateur draft supporting the efforts of our Amateur Leadership group down in our Bradenton facility during the draft.

Kudos to Larry for putting together this fine piece of work. You can follow Larry on Twitter here.

Ivan Nova continued to give the Yankees some solid innings, but the bats stayed relatively quiet through much of their contest against the Orioles on Wednesday.  Nova made one big mistake and the Yankees found themselves trailing in the bottom of the ninth, before a big homer by Nick Swisher found its way into the stands and the Yankees had a 3-2 walk-off victory.

Nova and Orioles pitcher Brad Bergesen kept the game scoreless through the first couple innings.  Curtis Granderson worked a lead off walk in the bottom of the third and stole second.  He moved to third on Francisco Cervelli’s ground out.  Brett Gardner doubled to left, scoring Granderson for the first run of the game as the Yankees took the 1-0 lead.

(click “view full post” to read more)

Behold, the wonderful job that Kerry Wood has done since joining the club:

-
And from Fangraphs.com:

-

Sure his walk rate is high, but he’s offset it with a great K rate. What’s to complain about? Nothing. Just happy that his arrival has put the bullpen in a semblance of order and effectiveness. Yes, it’s been “only” 16.2 IP so far, but he’s faced 69 batters, allowing just 1o hits (but 10 walks) and the only run he’s allowed is a solo HR to Aaron Hill on 8/3. That perfect strand rate probably explains why his FIP is much higher than his actual ERA.

So how’s he doing it?

(click “view full post” to read more)

With the start of the professional football season coming tomorrow evening, I thought I’d take this chance to address a claim that pops up quite often and really annoys me; that there’s more parity in football than in baseball, and this is because the NFL has a hard salary cap while baseball does not. You hear the argument a lot, particularly from people who advocate baseball adopt a salary cap. Frankly, the casual, sloppy, link between a salary cap and parity is probably a nicer way to base a belief than simply admitting you’re a stooge for billionaire owners. Either way, the case tends to be drastically overstated. On the one hand, it’s still possible to maintain consistent winning in the NFL. The Colts, Chargers, Patriots, Steelers, Ravens, and Eagles have been able to maintain a near constant presence in or around the playoffs over the past decade or so. But even accepting the premise that there is generally good turnover in the NFL, it’s simply not the case that there’s any evidence that salary caps play a role in this. That’s mostly because there are other, more obvious factors that do more to explain why the NFL would have higher turnover in their postseason than baseball.

The Yankees ran into trouble early Tuesday night, as CC Sabathia struggled before he got his first out.  Sabathia’s uncharacteristic start put the Yankees in a tough hole and they were unable to dig their way out of it as Baltimore took the 6-2 victory and the Yankees lost their third straight contest.

Brian Roberts got the Orioles off to a quick start with a single to center.  A passed ball put Roberts on second and Sabathia walked Felix Pie.  Nick Markakis singled to left, loading the bases with no outs.  A single by Ty Wigginton scored Roberts for the first run of the game.  Adam Jones followed with a ground ball that found its way to left for a two-run single and the Orioles held a 3-0 lead while the Yankees were still searching for the first out of the game.  Sabathia seemed to finally find his groove, sitting the next three hitters down in order.

(click “view full post” to read more)

From the Lies, Damn Lies and Statistics Files…

Derek Jeter is a .440 player. Not his batting average. Not his OBP. Not his OPS, slugging, SB%, success at club %. Nope, it’s Jeter’s “offensive winning percentage” this year:

Currently, a lineup of nine Jeter’s would average about four runs per game. That, with league average pitching, is good enough to win only 44 percent of the time.

For his career, Jeter’s offensive winning percentage has ranged from .502 (2008) to .781 (1999). Last season, it was .661, tied for the third-best mark of his career and within the top 20 percent of everyday major league hitters. This year’s drop, which could be a 220-point plummet, would put him in the bottom 20 percent.

Statistically speaking, a .440 offensive winning percentage at Jeter’s age (36) is an ominous sign. Rare is the everyday player who performs at that rate, at that age, who becomes statistically great again.

[...]

And don’t forget, one of Jeter’s predecessors as captain, Don Mattingly, retired after his offensive win percentage dipped to .443 in 1995.

Of course, this is all neat and handy and of no surprise to those of us watching him most days. It’s a bad year for Jeter, we get it. And ya know what? Right now, it makes little difference. The team is still 2.5 games up, owners of the best record in all of baseball. It will mean more in the post-season, but right now, it means little.

It also makes little difference in Jeter’s leverage towards his next contract. None, at least nothing meaningful.

Ben Kabak at RAB has some interesting analysis of Joe Girardi’s decision to let A.J. Burnett pitch to Brian Roberts with 2 on and 2 out in the 7th inning yesterday. I must say though, while the rest of the piece is strong, I think Ben gets the conclusion wrong. Burnett was over 100 pitches and Roberts already had 2 hits off of him, it was a perfectly legitimate spot to go get someone out of the bullpen to get that out, especially given how well the core of the bullpen has been pitching. If that’s a problem because that hurts Burnett’s confidence and makes him pitch poorly in the future (which I kind of doubt) then maybe teams need to invest some money in getting their players personal psychiatrists.

But once again I find myself wondering a simple question; why not Mo? After all, with the game tied, 2 men on, and one of the Orioles best hitters at the plate (if not their best hitter), it’s highly possible that this represented the highest leverage situation the Yankees would face the rest of the game. And presumably Rivera would have been able to pitch to at least a couple of batters in the 8th as well. Instead, the conventional usage of the tiered bullpen dictates that, even if Girardi had gone to his bullpen in that situation, he would have brought in an inferior reliever, waiting for a save situation that ultimately never came to bring in the best relief pitcher in the history of the game. It’s utterly insane, and I really can’t wait until some modern day Earl Weaver has the guts to point that out. It’s a shame it will be too late to truly maximize the value of Mariano Rivera.