The 2011 New York Yankees All-Projection Team

Alex Rodriguez (AP)

Having taken a look at the 2011 ZiPS numbers for the Yankees’ hitters and pitchers, we’ve finally completed our tour of each of the major 2011 projection systems. What better way to encapsulate everything we’ve learned than by averaging out the results for the Yankees’ expected 2011 starting lineup and the pitchers vying for the starting rotation? I’ve excluded the bench and bullpen from this post, as I’ve generally found that projections for those players with less playing time aren’t particularly useful or informative.

The following tables show each player’s 2010 lines, followed by their 2011 projected line, which consists of the averages of the six major systems — Bill James, CAIRO, Oliver, Marcel, PECOTA and ZiPS. One thing that bears reiteration: I am fully aware that comparing each system is not apples-to-apples, given that neither Oliver nor Marcel are park-adjusted, and CAIRO’s wOBA doesn’t include baserunning; however, this exercise is primarily in good fun and not meant to be overly scientific or exact.… Click here to read the rest


Just a quick heads up, I’ll be batting lead off on Mike Silva’s New York Baseball Digest Show tonight at 8:00. Topics will include questions about the 2011 Yanks, the mutual lurking on Liriano, our crazy uncle Hank, Joba’s fastball and my take on the civil war in Libya. OK, maybe not that last one.  Two guys hanging out, talking baseball and you’re invited to listen or call in.  Click here to listen live or hear the segment as an archive.… Click here to read the rest

TYA Trivia Open Thread For 2-27-11

Yesterday’s question: In 2010, Brett Gardner was tied (with Carl Crawford) for 3rd in the AL in Stolen Bases with 47. Give me the six Yankees who have led the American League in stolen bases a total of 11 times since 1914.

Answers: Fritz Maisel (1914) Ben Chapman (1931-1933) Frankie Crosetti (1938) Snuffy Sternweiss (1944-45) Ricky Henderson (1985, 86, 88) and Alfonso Soriano (2002)

Today’s Trivia Question: The Yankees have three rookie pitchers in camp (Brackman, Betances, Banuelos) that project as front of the rotation starters. Name the three Yankee pitchers that have won the American League Rookie of the Year award since its inception in 1949.… Click here to read the rest

The 25th Man: Eric Chavez?

Joel Sherman checked in this morning with a blurb about the Yankees’ final roster spot:

You have the 12-man staff. You have a set nine-man lineup (again assuming no injuries) comprised of Russell Martin, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Curtis Granderson, Nick Swisher and Jorge Posada. That gets you to 21 of the 25 players. Andruw Jones will be the main backup outfielder. That is 22. There will be a backup catcher, which almost certainly comes down to Francisco Cervelli vs. Jesus Montero. That is 23. One utility player must be able to play shortstop, which means Ramiro Pena vs. Eduardo Nunez. That is 24.

So that would give the Yankees one spot to essentially pick a skill they want. Eric Chavez could offer lefty power. Brandon Laird could offer righty power. Greg Golson or Justin Maxwell could offer an athletic, righty-hitting outfielder. The loser of the Pena vs.

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The 2011 ZiPS Projections: Yankee Offense and Pitching

Mark Teixeira (Sabo/News)

This offseason I’ve taken you through every major projection system I could get my hands on: shortly after the World Series we looked at Bill James’ expectedly optimistic projections; SG’s pragmatic CAIRO projections; THT’s rather pessimistic non-park adjusted Oliver projections; Tango’s slightly-less-dire-than-Oliver non-park adjusted Marcel projections; and PECOTA’s reasonable, CAIRO-esque projections.

Today we finally tackle the last of the major projection systems; Dan Szymborski’s park-adjusted ZiPS. While no more or less accurate than any of the other forecasts, I do have a certain fondness for ZiPS as Fangraphs carries daily updated Rest-of-Season (RoS) and end-of-season ZiPS forecasts throughout the baseball season.

Here’s what Szymborski has to say about the 2011 Yankees:

“As anybody can see, the Yankees have a championship-caliber offense. There’s little question about the abilities of any of their starters and if Jesus Montero were a few years younger, ZiPS would be seized by the Robot Enforcement Authority and deleted as a sex crime offender.

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Sunday Notes and Commentary

This time of year, there’s so many little items that don’t require a full post but are interesting nonetheless. For the items that catch my eye, I’ll fold them into one weekend post where I can weigh in on them and we can discuss them further in the comment section. With that being said, here the first installment of Sunday Notes:

-Joba was hitting 94 on the gun yesterday. That’s significant. If you recall the past few springs, Joba has been a notoriously slow starter, usually sitting in the high 80s-low 90s this time of year. I hope he’s not pushing himself too hard too soon, trying to prove something after all the weight reports this spring. But that doesn’t appear to be the case. Joba credited the work he’s done with Larry Rothschild on his delivery, and said he hasn’t been that high on the gun this early in the past 5 years. While it looked like he was throwing the ball free and easy with his new delivery, Joba said “it felt like I was throwing bowling balls, to be honest with you”.… Click here to read the rest

TYA Trivia Open Thread For 2-26-11

Thursday’s question: Which team had the most hitters with 5 or more WAR in a single season? How many hitters was it? Who were they?

Answer: The 1939 yankees with Bill Dickey, Joe DiMaggio, Joe Gordon, Charlie Keller, Red Rolfe, and George Selkirk.

Today’s Trivia Question: In 2010, Brett Gardner was tied (with Carl Crawford) for 3rd in the AL for Stolen Bases with 47. Give me the six Yankees who have led the American League in stolen bases a total of 11 times since 1914.… Click here to read the rest