How Much Do You Really Want Felix?

The above table shows a projection of his value over the next 4 seasons. Hernandez has been worth about 6.5 wins each of the past two seasons, and there’s no reason he can’t match that and even eclipse it as he continues to mentally and physically mature. For the win values, I started with $5 million per win for 2011 and added $0.25 million to the win value each season for inflation, which is probably a little low but I’m trying to be conservative. Over the next four seasons, I’ve projected Hernandez to bring in a surplus value of $81 million, which leads us to our next question—what is that worth in terms of talent sent back.

For now, let’s stick to prospects. According to Victor Wang’s research, we have a decent idea of what prospects are worth. Jesus Montero would start the asking price, and as a top 10 hitting prospect, he would be worth $36.5 million, leaving the Yankees with $44.5 million more to fill.… Click here to read the rest

Martin the Masher

Russell Martin is off to one hell of a start. He’s slugging .600 and has a wOBA of .412. He’s knocked four balls into the people already, after hitting just five homers last year. He’s even chipped in two steals and has played solid defense behind the plate. This is awesome and a half. I’m totally loving Russell Martin and I’m going to enjoy this hot streak while it lasts. But, since I must, I’m going to play a bit of a wet blanket here.

How’s he done it? He definitely hasn’t done it by hitting fastballs. Martin is at 4.1 runs BELOW average on fastballs at this point in the season. However, he’s mauled non-four seamers. He’s in the red (barely, -0.1) on changeups, but he’s hitting everything else well. He’s 1.4 runs above average on sliders, 2.4 runs above averages on cutters, and 1.3 runs above average on curveballs. That’s what he’s hit, now let’s see what he’s done once he’s made contact.… Click here to read the rest

Why hasn't Nick Swisher joined the home run barrage yet?

(photo c/o Getty)

Conspicuously absent from the 2011 Yankees’ home run assault thus far has been Nick Swisher, who was tied for third on the team with 29 bombs last season. Granted, it’s only been 14 games, but this is the latest he’s gone into a season homerless since becoming a full-time player in 2005 (though to keep things in perspective he only had two in all of April last year).

I wanted to see if a look at his batting splits might tell us anything (the usual small sample size caveats apply). The following chart (all date from Fangraphs) shows his splits batting lefty and righty from this year and last, and I’ve highlighted in yellow the numbers that are worth talking about:

Nick Swisher is a career .373 wOBA hitter as a righthander, and a .350 as a lefty. I have to be honest; prior to looking up the numbers I would’ve assumed it to be the opposite, probably due in part because we see Swisher bat from the left more often and it’s also his power side (.477 career SLG as a lefty vs.… Click here to read the rest

My Favorite Stat on Mo

Career Leaders & Records for Adjusted ERA+

 

Rank Player (age) Adjusted ERA+ Throws
1. Mariano Rivera (41) 206 R
2. Pedro Martinez 154 R
3. Jim Devlin 151 R
4. Lefty Grove+ 148 L
5. Walter Johnson+ 147 R
Dan Quisenberry 147 R
Hoyt Wilhelm+ 147 R
8. Ed Walsh+ 146 R
Smoky Joe Wood 146 R
10. Roger Clemens 143 R
11. Addie Joss+ 142 R
Johan Santana 142 L
Brandon Webb 142 R
14. Trevor Hoffman 141 R
15. Kid Nichols+ 140 R
16. Mordecai Brown+ 139 R
17. John Franco 138 L
Cy Young+ 138 R
19. Roy Halladay (34) 137 R
20. Pete Alexander+ 136 R
Randy Johnson 136 L
Christy Mathewson+ 136 R
Bruce Sutter+ 136 R
24. Roy Oswalt (33) 135 R
Rube Waddell+ 135 L
26. Harry Brecheen 134 L
John Clarkson+ 134 R
John Hiller 134 L
29. Whitey Ford+ 133 L
30. Spud Chandler 132 R
Noodles Hahn 132 L
Roberto Hernandez 132 R
Greg Maddux 132 R
Lee Smith 132 R
Al Spalding+ 132 R
Kent Tekulve 132 R
37.
Click here to read the rest

Brien Is Right, Murray Chass IS a Hack

Chass’ latest affont to Brien’s peace of mind appeared last week, where Chass relayed a story told to him by ex-baseball Commissioner Fay Vincent.  According to Vincent, several years ago Vincent had the chance to discuss life with ex-Red Sox GM Lou Gorman, and Gorman told Vincent the following story: (1) after the Red Sox 1986 season, the team offered to sign star pitcher Roger Clemens to a long-term contract at $1 million a year, (2) then-baseball Commissioner Peter Ueberroth (Vincent’s predecessor as Commissioner) told Gorman that the Red Sox were forbidden to pay Clemens more than $500,000 a year, (3) Gorman was forced to go back on his initial offer to Clemens, leaving Clemens and his agent “crazed”, and (4) Gorman felt that the Red Sox’s failure to go forward with their million dollar deal led to Clemens’ departure from the Red Sox in 1996.

According to Vincent-as-reported-by-Chass, Gorman made Vincent promise not to repeat this story until after Gorman was dead. … Click here to read the rest

TYA Open Thread | Off Day | Monday April 18, 2011

The Yankees have the night off tonight before they head up North to take on the Blue Jays, who will no doubt confront the team with a bunch of homers and pitchers who can´t top 89mph on the radar gun. The off-day is important because it will give Alex Rodriguez and his achy back one more night of rest. Hopefully he´ll be back at full force come Tuesday.

In the interim, this seems like a good time for me to launch my annual Mariano Rivera appreciation campaign. I´ve said it before, and I´ll keep saying it so long as he plays, but in a way Yankee fans and analysts alike take Mo for granted. He´s so good, and so good like clockwork, that we don´t focus as much on the actual numbers he´s putting up. There´s good, and then there´s an ERA of 0.00, a FIP of 1.38, a WHIP of 0.480, zero walks and only four hits in 8.1 innings of work.… Click here to read the rest

A Birds-Eye Look At 2011 Yankee Hitting So Far

We’ve heard a lot about “Too many home runs!” and other problems with the Yankee hitting so far this season. The Yankees have scored 77 runs in 14 games, which ranks us 5th in the AL, although it should be noted that we’ve got 1 game in hand over all the teams who have scored more runs. If they scored 5 runs in their make-up game in hand, the Yankees would be #1.

Here is how they got there:

You already know that the Yankees have scored a ton of runs on the home run this season. They lead the league by a mile in slugging at .490, although their batting average and on base percentage are middle-of-the-pack. Add it all up, and you’ve got the #1 OPS+ in the league at 125. I put Yankee ERA and ERA+ rates in there to compare to. All the other statistics are for hitters.

Yankee hitters are getting to their batting line in an odd combination of ways.… Click here to read the rest

No, really, Murray Chass is a hack

First of all, the entire post is based on hearsay. Fay Vincent isn’t telling Chass a story about something that happened to him, he’s giving a second hand account based on what someone else told him happened. That’s the first, and biggest, red flag. Add in that the original source is now deceased, and a reputable journalistic outlet likely wouldn’t have ever published this, especially considering that Vincent has a well known axe to grind with Bud Selig. This is Journalism 101.

Furthering the list of ways in which Chass violates basic journalistic standards, the two people he calls to verify the story don’t verify it. Gene Orza states flatly that it isn’t true, and Randy Hendricks only corroborates it if you choose to read his comments in a way that confiems what you already believe to be true. The fact that he didn’t mention this in a book that included the subject matter should take precedence over a non-specific recounting of events 16 years after the book and 24 years after the act allegedly happened.… Click here to read the rest