The above table shows a projection of his value over the next 4 seasons. Hernandez has been worth about 6.5 wins each of the past two seasons, and there’s no reason he can’t match that and even eclipse it as he continues to mentally and physically mature. For the win values, I started with $5 million per win for 2011 and added $0.25 million to the win value each season for inflation, which is probably a little low but I’m trying to be conservative. Over the next four seasons, I’ve projected Hernandez to bring in a surplus value of $81 million, which leads us to our next question—what is that worth in terms of talent sent back.
For now, let’s stick to prospects. According to Victor Wang’s research, we have a decent idea of what prospects are worth. Jesus Montero would start the asking price, and as a top 10 hitting prospect, he would be worth $36.5 million, leaving the Yankees with $44.5 million more to fill.… Click here to read the rest