Last year, I wrote about how 2010 AL run scoring was significantly depressed. AL batters scored 4.45 runs per game in 2010, down from 4.82 in 2010. In fairly robust 330 game span, here are the early returns from 2011:
AL batters have scored just 4.29 runs per game in 2011. If that were to hold up over a full season, it would be the lowest level of run scoring since 1989.
It should be noted that while there are validity concerns in projecting run scoring down (Baseball conditions are different in April than in other months, although there was little monthly variation last season), 330 games is a pretty robust sample in terms of random variation. We can say with a lot of confidence that run scoring is down, even though that may change in the future.
What does this mean for the 2011 season? First, it means that the Yankees’ 4.19 runs allowed per game and 3.90 ERA so far are worse than they seem.… Click here to read the rest