Game Thread: Game 48. Yankees vs. Blue Jays. Win the rubber match.

Good afternoon, everyone! It’s a 1 PM start for the Yankees/Jays today in the rubber match of their latest three game set in the Bronx.

Here’s the lineup for today’s match up vs. Jo Jo Reyes, thanks to LoHud:

1. Jeter, SS (Will it work today?!)
2. Granderson, CF (I can has more lefty mashing? .470 wOBA vs. LHP, .392 vs. RHP. #cured)
3. Teixeira, 1B (Hope Reyes doesn’t feature a changeup)
4. Rodriguez, DH(The numbers say otherwise, but I can’t remember seeing him have this many poor PAs bunched together)
5. Cano, 2B (Over/Under: 15.5 pitches seen today?)
6. Martin, C (O, Canada! .350/.458/.600/1.058 vs. the Jays this year)
7. Swisher, RF (I’m begging for better plate appearances today)
8. Jones, LF (Can he run into a fastball?)
9. Nunez, 3B (Over/Under: 1.5 errant throws to first)

Freddy Garcia gets the ball today. His 3.12 ERA is shiny, but the 4.78 FIP and 4.13 xFIP don’t bode horribly well for Mr. Garcia. His 1.45 HR/9 and super low 32.1 GB% scare me against the Jays.

Taking the mound for the Jays is the aforementioned Jo Jo Reyes. Quick scouting report:

4.07/3.36/4.23 ERA/FIP/xFIP
6.84 SO/9, 2.40 BB/9
1.50 WHIP
35.8 GB%
0.55 HR/9 (Can we get a correction, please?)

Per Texas Leaguers, here’s the particulars on his pitches:

Avg. 2-Seam Fastball Velocity: 90.5 MPH (42.23% usage)
Avg. 4-Seam Fastball Velocity: 91.1 MPH (28.5% usage)
Avg. Slider Velocity: 83.1 MPH (14.6% usage)
Avg. Changeup Velocity: 83.5 MPH (11.9% usage)
Avg. Curveball Velocity: 77.1 MPH (2.6% usage)

He likes to throw that two seamer as the first pitch (50.5% of the time). When he gets ahead, he sticks with it (41.6%), but also bumps his slider usage up from 6.4% first pitch to 15.8% when up 0-1. When down 1-0, he almost completely ditches the offspeed/breaking stuff and sticks exclusively to either fastball, as we’d expect.

Reyes seems to be a fastball heavy guy and the Yankees like fastball pitches. If they can stay ahead of Reyes, they should have a good time against him. Yes, that’s the most obvious statement anyone’s made about anything ever, but it holds true here. Even if the Yankees fall behind him, though, it looks like they’ll have a decent chance, considering how much Reyes likes his fastball.

Enjoy the game, folks. GO YANKEES!

55 thoughts on “Game Thread: Game 48. Yankees vs. Blue Jays. Win the rubber match.

  1. Jones did run into a fastball, I guess.

    • T.O. Chris

      H can still hit home runs, I believe he had 20+ last season? He’s not hitting quite as consistent as Thames last season, but he’s also not the butcher in the field Marcus was.

  2. Way to wiggle out of it Freddy! I loved the block he threw on Nunez (even if it was unintentional).

  3. Jeter going oppo for a double, I like it. Haven’t seen that Jeterian swing enough recently.

  4. T.O. Chris

    The problem with both Jeter and Posada is they have no consitency at the plate. From day to day, and at bat to at bat, they look completely different. Sometimes you see a well hit ball, and then the next time up they look lost.

    Granderson!!!

    • True. The consistency aspect may be a matter of approach, which can be fixed.

      • T.O. Chris

        I actually think it has to do with bat speed. I think at times both of them are cheating fastball and end up being right, but neither one is hitting off-speed pitches well, and when they aren’t cheating on the fastball they don’t catch up.

        I think at this point it’s undeniable that both have lost bat speed.

  5. T.O. Chris

    How can someone with a .456 batting average over the last 14 games have as many poor plate appearances as you make it sound like Matt? He’s not who he was but come on, we’re faulting guys for a little good luck now?

    • It’s not that, I know he’s mostly hitting well but his outs have just seemed REALLY bad. There are times when he he’s still missing pitches he should destroy and taking really hesitant cuts. It’s total confirmation bias.

      • T.O. Chris

        Alex is a guess hitter, always has been, so at times he guesses wrong and makes ugly outs. The bigger issue to me is that he seems to be taking pitches for strikes he can hit, I’ve seen him take several down and away fastballs for strikes that he should be able to drive the other way. He has a .380 wOBA though so if he keeps trending up the rest should come around.

      • Professor Longnose

        14 hits in the last 7 days, which is fabulous, but only two for extra bases.

        • T.O. Chris

          As long as he’s getting on base that’s really all I care about.

          I think sometimes (all the time) we judge Alex off of his old self instead of off of baseball players and that really isn’t fair, not many players in history can post 3 different 9 WAR seasons. The contract probably has a lot to do with it, but still I think we need to just be a little more realistic with our judgement. He’s no longer the .400 OBP, .600 SLG, .400 wOBA guy he once was, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t still effective in the middle of the order.

          • Professor Longnose

            First of all, I wasn’t making any judgements, just adding data to the discussion. 7 games is nothing to go on as far as value to the team over the season or the contract. It’s only relevance is in trying to figure out if his swing is OK.

            Second of all, his power is, of course, very important over the season. If there really were signs that he’s not a 30-homer a year guy, that’s a big problem. He’s on course to hit exactly 30 homers, and if that’s where he ends up, fine. We’re in a different run environment now.

            Lastly, you’re getting a mite touchy about Mr. Rodriguez. Anytime someone bring sup his name, you start responding to things that aren’t being said at the moment. It’s quite frustrating trying to have a discussion with you when you keep responding to things other people in other places are saying.

          • T.O. Chris

            I wasn’t talking about you…

            You seem to take things a little too personal, I was just talking in generalities. In fact I was refering to things I’ve read on sites other than this one.

            I read somewhere yesterday that Alex will be hitting .220 by the all-star break and he should retire. There are people that are acting like he has become pure garbage, I never said you were one of them. Talk about an all time over-reaction on your part.

            Stop thinking everything is an attack…. It’s not always about you. In fact if you notice I said sometimes “we” judge Alex… including myself into the we. If you would read, and take it for what it is you would realize what’s being said.

          • Professor Longnose

            I’ve been thinking that you think everything is an attack. I guess for some reason we just push each other’s buttons that way.

            It’s too bad, because other than that, we’re obviously the two most brilliant commenters on the site.

  6. T.O. Chris

    With the 3 BB game Monday, 3 hit game yesterday, and a hit today, Granderson has reached base 7 times in 3 days.

    • I’m actually considering updating my Granderson post. I always assumed his ISO correction would occur because his SLG would go down. Now it looks like his AVG is going up. This is, of course, the better of the two outcomes.

      • T.O. Chris

        The thing that I think is the biggest x factor for Granderson is that we don’t really have relevant numbers to compare him to. I was looking at his advanced stats the other day, and as you said I was looking at them thinking about how they all have to regress. However as I was looking at his past numbers I realized that even when/if he does regress it doesn’t mean his mean is his career numbers. Since he has only had his new swing since last summer there isn’t really a set of data to point to and say “this is where he should settle in”. It’s sort of an unknown quantity.

  7. Professor Longnose

    I remember when Anthony Young lost 27 straight games with the Mets, which is worse than not winning a game in 24 straight starts. He wasn’t that bad, but couldn’t catch a break. I read a where-is-he-now piece on him; as I remember, he works with kids these days.

    • T.O. Chris

      You’d want to retire before you hit 25, as a professional you obviously wouldn’t but you know at one point he thought he would never win again.

  8. Professor Longnose

    First inning, runner on third, one out: walk Bautista and go for the DP.

  9. Professor Longnose

    Or, just get Bautista to pop up!

  10. Professor Longnose

    He got out of it!

    A message to Garcia: Nice work, Freddy!

  11. That’s true. The Yanks could beat Felix or Pineda if they’re able to scratch across a few runs.

    • T.O. Chris

      It’s going to be double tough against Pineda, not only is he one of the nastiest pitchers in baseball, but he’s a young pitcher we have never seen before.

      The one offensive player we have to watch out for in that series is Smoak, he has really turned it on this year. He’s gone on a little bit of a skid here recently, but it makes sense because everyone is game planning for just him at this point.

  12. T.O. Chris

    “I’ve been thinking that you think everything is an attack. I guess for some reason we just push each other’s buttons that way.

    It’s too bad, because other than that, we’re obviously the two most brilliant commenters on the site.”

    You don’t push my buttons, in fact I only ever get frustrated by two posters on the whole site, one who means well, and one who is well… just pisses everyone off.

    When I respond to comments sometimes it’s in direct response to something you said but a lot of times it’s like you adding in the stat about extra base hits… It’s just added information from things I’ve read. They just happen to be posted in that section because it pertains to that hitter.

    once again the internet would be enhanced with a voice saying everything you read in the appropriate tone haha.

    • T.O. Chris

      Oh yeah, and I totally agree… If there was an MVP of posting we tie for the award every season, back of the posting card baby! hahaha

    • Professor Longnose

      OK, I’ll try to take that into consideration. I, personally, would be happy if you brought your context with you. If you had said “Here’s what some idiots have been saying about Rodriguez” and “Here’s what I think he has to do to be valuable” and “yadda yadda” then I’d definitely be interested in reading it. I know game threads are here for short, quick comments, but when you leave out the context, it sounds to me like you’re making pronouncements about what the people here are saying. But if I’m not reading it right, I’ll have to do something about that.

      • T.O. Chris

        I’ll try and correct myself on that then. A lot of time I end up doing game thread posts on my phone and not the computer so I keep it as short as I can, posting on the phone is kind of a pain.

  13. Hey, how awesome is it that the Yankees not only finally hit a Lefty-They’ve-Never-Faced-Before, but also knocked him out after three measly innings!

    • T.O. Chris

      I’d be a little more excited if he hadn’t lost 24 straight games, but it’s certainly a start in the right direction.

      Little off topic but, and correct me if I’m wrong, wasn’t Jo-Jo Reyes a reliever once? I just can’t shake the thought that he was a lefty reliever at one point.

  14. Ugly swing by Jeter there. Yeesh.

  15. Professor Longnose

    Two batters into the game, and the Yankees are hitting 1.000 with RISP.

  16. T.O. Chris

    14-0??

    I have to say I still don’t believe in the Indians. Everyone seems to have bought into the fact that they are for real, but I just can’t see that pitching staff continuing like they have been pitching.

    • Professor Longnose

      I think you’re right, but someone pointed out that their lead is already large enough so that if they play .500 ball from here on in, they could still win a weak Central.

      • T.O. Chris

        I could see them maybe winning that division but I have been seeing people talking about the Indians winning the AL, and even winning the World Series. The main stream media has just fallen in love it seems. I know they aren’t the most baseball smart people, but as an example the guys on PTI picked the Indians as having a better chance to win the AL than the Red Sox.

        • Professor Longnose

          Oh, yeah, it makes a good story. But, yeah, that doesn’t make them better than the Red Sox.

    • Call me crazy, but haven’t they faced very easy competition so far?

      • Not buying the Indians as a legitimate threat yet. The Central seems fairly mediocre this year.

      • T.O. Chris

        They faced the Red Sox to start the year but that wasn’t this Boston team, they’ve changed a lot since then.

        So far, by series, they have faced the White Sox, Red Sox, Mariners, Angels, Orioles, Royals, Twins, Royals, Tigers, A’s, Angels, Rays, Mariners, Royals, White Sox, Reds, and Red Sox.

        So yeah I would say overall they haven’t faced top end competition week in and week out.

  17. Professor Longnose

    BA RISP down to .250.

  18. T.O. Chris

    I’ve always been a huge fan of the split finger fastball and I have never understood why more pitchers don’t throw it. It’s not as much of a feel pitch as a great change, and it’s mulitfacited in what you can get with it. I know some people say it can injure the pitcher but I don’t really believe that has ever been proven with any real data.

  19. T.O. Chris

    It’s really hard to understand Swisher’s struggles, when you look at his numbers he’s hitting a ton of line drives (24%) and yet it just doesn’t seem to be falling for him.

  20. T.O. Chris

    Looks like he ran into 2!!

    • Professor Longnose

      That last one was a shot, too.

      • T.O. Chris

        Yeah this park may give some cheapies, but there are no cheapies to centerfield.

  21. T.O. Chris

    I hate to say it but I feel we’ll be lucky to win 1 game against seattle. We are going to face both Pineda and Felix Hernandez in that series, just going to be an extremely tough series.

    Grandy!

    • It’s going to be crazy against the two of them.

      • I’ve been working on the Seattle Series Preview, and let’s just say that the Yankees have their work cut out for them Friday and Saturday. And of course, good ol’ lefty junkballer Jason Vargas goes on Sunday.

        Thank goodness Seattle can’t hit.

      • T.O. Chris

        I’m sure you’ve seen him but I’m actually excited to sit down and watch a full Pineda start, with him going before Felix he’s almost like the guy who softens you up for the best pitcher in baseball.

        I was actually joking to a friend the other day that I’d trade Montero, G Sanchez, Hughes, Banuelos, Betances, Joba, Brackman, Nova, Heathcott, and Gardner for Felix and Pineda. The funny thing is none of those guys have the upside, or proven big league ability as those 2.

        Being serious though, by the sounds of things though there won’t be much of any kind of legit starting pitching available for trade. It makes me think the two best trade targets are probably Liriano and E Jackson. Both are still young, and have enough talent and upside to slot in the middle of the order this season, and be worth going forward with. Liriano has more upside than Jackson obviously, but you could do worse than Jackson as a 3 or 4 starter.

  22. Another homeruwn

  23. T.O. Chris

    Call me crazy if you want but I actually think Pineda looks like a better pitcher going forward than Stephen Strasburg.

  24. T.O. Chris

    With that HBP that is Granderson’s 10th time to reach base in 3 days. His triple slash line is up to .282/.355/.630.

  25. T.O. Chris

    Might be time to get Freddy out of the game.

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