What if the Major Leagues added two more franchises? The guys over at The Platoon Advantage simulated this exact scenario, asking each ESPN SweetSpot blog to represent their respective teams. I volunteered to do this for IIATMS. The process began by having each “team” submit a list of 15 protected players, according to the 1997/1998 MLB expansion rules. After this first round, we all had the opportunity to protect three additional players. After this second round, we protected three more players.
After it was all said and done, three players were picked from the Yankees: Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain, and Austin Romine. Below are explanations for not protecting these players:
Phil Hughes
When this project began, Phil had just been shutdown. The Yankees ran every test known to man on him, and nothing came up. To me, this signaled that there was really nothing wrong with him at all. And velocity is very important to Phil’s repertoire; last year by far his best pitch was his fastball. A large part of that success is velocity, and if Phil can’t light up the radar guns his ERA will balloon. Basically, I gave up on Hughes and decided he wasn’t worth much. In retrospect, this move may appear short sighted. Phil is currently making rehab starts in the minors and is showing much better stuff. However, research has shown that when most pitchers lose a lot of velocity, they almost never gain all of it back. Given the information at the time, the move was risky, but defensible.
Joba Chamberlain
Relievers are not valuable. Relievers are not valuable. Relievers are not valuable. This is what went through my head when creating my protected player list. I was very tempted to not protect Mariano Rivera too, but due to purely irrational behavior and fear of being struck by a lighting bolt I protected him. With only 15 players to initially protect I had to economical in getting the most value out of our players. Relievers simply do not throw very many innings and the Yankees have a stable of relievers in the minors ready for the call up. The news that Joba needed tommy john came during the middle of this exercise. In the interest of transparency, I did protect David Roberston.
Austin Romine
Romine was lost due to a communication issue on my part. Nevertheless, not a huge loss. The Yankees have a lot of catching prospects in addition to Martin and Cervelli in the majors, so losing Romine was not that bad. I personally think J.R. Murphy and Gary Sanchez are better prospects anyway, and Montero certainly is.
Other notes
I did not protect Jeter or Posada at any time. I ran out of sentimentality after protecting Mariano.
So what was the full list?
How is Bartolo Colon protected before Noesi, Burnett and Heathcott. Also, how do you protect him and not protect Brackman?
Players were protected in three groups, and Colon and Heatchott were both protected in the first group. The order within each does not matter. Colon has pitched like an ace, making him very valuable.
Brackman has lost velo and even after being converted to the pen, has been terrible this year. He's even lost velo. And Noesi/Burnett are simply not that valuable IMO.
why protect a-rod? no expansion team is going to take on that contract.
I agree that it was unlikely a team would take on that contract, but A-rod is still a very good player and losing him would be a big loss. Leaving him unprotected would be pretty risky.
Sure thing
I love A-Rod; would miss him if he left; that said, really don't even want to consider him at age 42 – would gladly let someone else take him off our hands. I'd miss him the next 3 years, I'd be ecstatic to have him be someone else's albatross for the last 4.
I would think certain players (like ARod, Jeter, Posada) would have it in their contracts that they would be protected in case of expansion.
I agree, would not have protected Arod. That contract will be an albatross, even if he is still productive now. For similar reasons, I'd even leave Tex unprotected. If either or both were to be selected, that just opens to door to go after Pujols and/or Fielder.
It certainly would have been reasonable to leave A-rod unprotected. I was pretty close to doing that, but my risk averse side kicked in. Also, losing A-rod would not open a position for Pujols. Neither Pujols nor Tex can play third. Of course Albert could DH, but he could have done that with A-rod still on the team.
Actually, Pujols has played third this year and when he came up that is where he played most of the time (I think). He played a lot of positions. But would he, and of what quality??