Series Preview | Yankees vs. Red Sox V: Regression, motherf$%^&(*s

.439/.519/.634 against the Yankees in 2011. Just stop it already. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)

Here’s what we know so far:

  • The Yankees are 2-10 against the Red Sox in 2011. They are 78-42 against everyone else.
  • Boston ace Josh Beckett has done his best Felix Hernandez impression this season, having given up three runs across 27 innings against the Yankees, good for a 1.00 ERA.

Something’s gotta give, right?

One would hope so, as the Yankees head into their fifth of six series with Boston, this one mercifully representing the last time they’ll have to trek up to Fenway this season unless these teams meet in the ALCS.

The Sox and Yankees have traded first and second place a few times since the last series in Boston, though the Sox enter this one back in first place. Boston’s offense has cooled off a bit in August after a scorching-hot July, while the Yankees have been raking like it’s going out of style. On the flip side, the Yankee rotation has been terrible in August, while the Sox’s starters have had the second-best ERA in the AL on the month.

Pitching Match-Ups

On Tuesday evening (7:05pm) , CC Sabathia will look for his first win of the season against the Red Sox in a rematch against an apparently fixed John Lackey. After a terrible start to the season (a 7.47 ERA over his first 13 starts) Lackey seems to have remembered that he’s actually not a bad pitcher, with a 4.11 ERA over his last nine outings including six innings of three-run ball against the Yanks on August 6. For some reason I have it in my head that the Yankees haven’t had much trouble with Lackey in a Boston uniform, but he was always tough on them as a Halo, and given his repertoire I wouldn’t be surprised if he has another strong outing against them. Lackey features a low-90s four-seamer, two-seamer and cutter, a mid-80s slider and changeup and that high-70s curveball that, when he’s locating it, is very difficult to hit.

In Wednesday night’s (7:05pm) game the Yanks will send Phil Hughes to the mound in hopes that he can recover from his second straight beatdown by the A’s against Josh Beckett. Hughes of course was terrible against the Sox back in April at Fenway during his second start of the season, and the ballpark has not been kind to him over the years, with an 8.83 ERA over 17.1 career innings that represents his worst career road ERA.

On the flip side, you’re already familiar with how dominant Beckett’s been against the Yankees this season. A big reason for his success appears to be the emergence of a newly effective cutter. Per Fangraphs, Beckett had never thrown the pitch more than 5% of the time until last season, when he jumped up to 15.3%, and he’s now throwing it a career-high 18.1% of the time. It’s been worth 9.4 runs above average, the 4th-best mark in the American League and right behind teammate Jon Lester. Beckett’s also increased the use of his changeup, throwing it more frequently than he has since 2004, and it’s been worth 7.5 runs above average, 10th-best in the AL. Given the Yankees’ struggles against both the cutter (-5.2 runs above average) and changeup (-6.0 runs above average) this season — along with the fact that Beckett’s three other pitches, the four-seamer, two-seamer (15.1 wFB) and curveball (5.1 wCB), are also solidly above-average — this would appear to explain a lot of Beckett’s overwhelming success against the Yankees this season.

And Thursday night’s (7:05pm) game features what on paper is perhaps the most guaranteed loss of the season, as Jon Lester faces A.J. Burnett. The Yankees might actually be better off skipping this one entirely and sending a bunch of little leaguers out onto the field in their stead. Lester’s been slightly more hittable this season, but that’s like saying one season of The Wire was slightly better than another. Though he’s lost more than a strikeout per nine and yielding nearly one home run per nine, he’s still one of the top southpaws in the game, and despite the fact that the Yankees actually beat him on August 5 and have also scored 10 runs on him over 18 innings this season, I fully expect him to come out and dominate the Bombers every time.

If it wasn’t bad enough Lester is a lefty featuring four killer pitches — 93mph four-seamer, 92mph sinker, 84mph change and 76mph curveball — his best pitch is a high-80s cutter, which has been the most effective cutter in the American League by far since 2008. This is, again, bad news for the Yankees, who as I noted a couple of weeks ago have been on a three-year decline against the cutter, and one can’t help but wonder whether the Bombers’ recent cutter problems stem in part from facing Lester as frequently as they have.

Prediction

Though the Sox’s insane hitting against the Yankees seems overdue to cool off, while the Yankee bats would seem poised to finally do some damage against Boston pitching, between two more starts against Beckett and Lester, along with the Yankees’ futility at Fenway over the years — 37-40 since the beginning of 2003 — Bombers fans should probably brace themselves for at least two more losses and be pleasantly surprised if the Yanks manage to take the series.

10 thoughts on “Series Preview | Yankees vs. Red Sox V: Regression, motherf$%^&(*s

  1. Frank

    CC has to step up huge tonight to not only show that he can beat the RS, but also guarantee one win for the Yanks in this series. If CC gets battered again tonight, it’s likely a sweep for the RS- I just don’t see Hughes or AJ having a chance against this offense.

  2. Duh, Innings!

    If the Yanks take two out of three, they’ll be a half-game behind Boston through 9/1 with a sixth of a season left to play.

    Time for Sabathia to step up vs. the Yanks and time the Yanks smashed Beckett or Lester especially Beckett. Time they smashed a #3 or better starter because Gavin Floyd was the last one they beat up.

    And time Girardi gets on the umpires about Beckett taking too long between pitches. If Girardi gets ejected for it, so be it. If it ruffles the Red Sox feathers, especially Beckett’s – good! Time the Yanks got in the heads of the Red Sox. You know if the Red Sox were 2-10 vs. the Yanks going into tonight they would pull something. I would definitely charge the mound vs. Beckett or Lester if they hit someone. Get one of them suspended and make him miss a start from it. Call me a brute, but I wanna see a 2004 style series, sorry. There’s no animosity between these two teams anymore, and you know what? When you’re 2-10, you should come in with a chip on your shoulder.

  3. Duh, Innings!

    Btw what is Beckett’s “Pitcher Pace” (average time between pitches)? I bet it’s his all-time high and if it is, he’s a fraud because no one convince me a career-high PP isn’t the reason why he’s become The Second Coming Of King Felix.

  4. [...] posted here: Series Preview | Yankees vs. Red Sox V: Regression, motherf … AKPC_IDS += "31996,"; AKPC_IDS += [...]

  5. smurfy

    From the title, Larry, I expected all hope to be pinned to the odds being long that Boston can repeat. Instead, the conclusion is that it’s best to brace for loss, due to facts neatly presented.

    I think the RS are well-motivated. The Yanks’ hitters have been daunted by effective pitching and Yanks’ pitching has been daunted by RS motivation, and effective hitting.

    My hope is that the Yanks will-to-win will rebound to dominate. It begins with pitching, so I look to our starters each to each to exhibit iron will and command to match. I am hoping for two to three out of three, yet I locked the shotgun, and buried it deep in the closet. Healthy bracing?

    • I hear ya, Smurfy. I debated “officially” predicting a Yankee series victory, and while the numbers would indicate that they’re quite overdue — they actually haven’t won a series against Boston since May 2010 — and as a statistician I go by the numbers 99% of the time, when it comes to Boston emotion usually gets involved and rationality goes out the window. That, and the fact the team just doesn’t tend to play very good baseball in Fenway Park.

      If it makes you feel any better, I certainly think the Yankees can win this series, but you’d have to be a blind optimist to expect a series win, especially based on the pitching match-ups.

      • Professor Longnose

        August 30th, a game and a half out of first place, and they’ve got the single worst pitcher in major league baseball for the last 1 and 5/6th seasons scheduled to pitch in a series against the first-place team. The Yankee management doesn’t give a damn if they win this series or not.

        • smurfy

          You know that’s not true, although it was like cyanide when I heard the news. They must have decided to use this as an acid test, hoping to snap AJ out of his funk.

          • Professor Longnose

            I don’t see how deciding to use this as an acid test conflicts with them not caring if they win this series.

  6. [...] into this game, as Larry mentioned earlier today, the Yankees were due for a good performance. We all knew CC was too good to let his previous poor [...]

Comments are closed.