Projected vs. Actual: Starting Pitching edition

You know the drill. Let’s run down some of the Yankee pitchers and see how they did compared to their projections.

To say this rotation was a surprise would be an understatement in the extreme. Coming into the 2011 season, it was easily the weakest part of the team. Despite that, the Yankee starters had the sixth best ERA in the AL heading into Tuesday as well as the sixth best FIP and third best xFIP. Put it all together and the starters racked up the fourth most fWAR in the AL. Sidebar: If we include the bullpen, the Yankees were third in ERA (to the Rays and Angels) as well as second in FIP/xFIP/fWAR (all to the White Sox).

CC Sabathia

ACTUAL: 237.1 IP, 3.00 ERA, 2.88 FIP
RotoChamp: 217 IP, 3.23 ERA, 3.41 FIP
Bill James: 236 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.34 FIP
Marcel: 202 IP, 3.30 ERA, 3.49 FIP
ZiPS: 230.3 IP, 3.32 ERA, 3.22 FIP

It was another Cy Young contending type year for the Big Man.… Click here to read the rest

Predicting The Postseason Roster, Take 3

This was my last stab at the postseason roster, compiled about a week ago:

Everyday Players

C Russell Martin
1B Mark Teixeira
2B Robinson Cano
3B Alex Rodriguez
SS Derek Jeter
RF Nick Swisher
CF Curtis Granderson
LF Brett Gardner
DH v. LHP: Andruw Jones


Eduardo Nunez
Jesus Montero
Eric Chavez
Chris Dickerson
Jorge Posada


CC Sabathia
Ivan Nova
Freddy Garcia
Bartolo Colon


Mariano Rivera
David Robertson
Rafael Soriano
Boone Logan
Corey Wade
Phil Hughes
Luis Ayala

Nothing has changed over the last week in terms of the offense. In fact, Joe Girardi all but confirmed that Posada and Montero were going to make the roster, meaning that Francisco Cervelli and Austin Romine are staying home unless the club carries 15 position players. Additionally, while it is possible that Greg Golson make it over Dickerson as the pinch runner, Dickerson’s extensive playing time over the last week suggests that he is the choice.

On the pitching side of things, I expect the Yankees to take just 3 starters, leaving Bartolo Colon and AJ Burnett home to await a possible ALCS Game 4 start.… Click here to read the rest

Transitioning into the postseason; some observations

Over the past few days, we’ve been privy to some pretty enthralling baseball. As the final days of the season come to an end, the Sox, Rays, Cardinals, and Braves having taken center stage as they desperately fight for October admittance. With all of this added mania, I’ve found myself watching even more baseball than usual so I thought it’d be fun to take a few moments to jot down some observations.

1) Bizzaro Jesus

We are all well aware by now know of Jesus Montero. As it turns out though, the Sox have a “wicked good” hitting prospect of their own (who also happens to be a backstop), Ryan Lavarnway. His two monster homeruns yesterday couldn’t have been better timed as the Sox find themselves muddling through the final days of what has otherwise been an awful September. While Lavarnway doesn’t have quite the hype surrounding him that Jesus does, he certainly has caught some attention nevertheless. His power stroke is legitimate (.317 ISO in AAA), and he’s put together a very solid season in the minors (.295/.390/.612).… Click here to read the rest

Projected vs. Actual: Bench/DH Edition

Since we’re limiting this to players with 200+ plate appearances, this is only going to be a three man post. The DH, obviously, is Jorge Posada. The bench guys are Andruw Jones and Eduardo Nunez (these numbers are accurate as of Tuesday afternoon).

Posada and Nunez didn’t thrill with the bat, but Jones certainly did. He racked up a 131 wRC+ in 218 PAs and he did exactly what he was expected to do, which was pummel left handed pitching. While he was bad against RHP, (.297 wOBA, 82 wRC+), he was downright dominant against lefties (.406 wOBA, 156 wRC+). Posada started out hot, then fell apart. Nunez showed flashes of brilliance, but long stretches of futility. Remember: these projections are not adjusted for splits.


ACTUAL: .247/.358/.484; .369 wOBA
RotoChamp: .239/.345/.478; .360 wOBA
Bill James: .226/.331/.452; .339 wOBA
Marcel: .219/.316/.414; .323 wOBA
ZiPS: .221/.320/.438; .332 wOBA

The very bullish RotoChamp more or less nailed it on Jones.… Click here to read the rest

Yanks drop second straight game to Tampa Bay

(AP Photo/Chris O'Meara)

I admittedly haven’t been watching much baseball since the Yankees clinched their playoff spot last Wednesday, and so I didn’t see a single inning of last night’s 5-3 loss to the Rays. This feeling of ennui in the aftermath of Yankee losses is a weird one — one that will undoubtedly be shaken off come 8:37pm Friday night — but also represents an enjoyable reprieve after 155 games of caring deeply about the outcome of a given Yankee game.

In fact, I couldn’t help but be mildly annoyed to see the Yankees leading 3-2 through six innings while Boston jumped out to a commanding lead over the Baltimore Buck Showalters as I checked my BlackBerry for the score. Thankfully (again, weird to be typing this) Rafael Soriano gave up a three-run homer to Matt Joyce to put the Rays ahead for good, ensuring that the tie for the Wild Card would live another day.

Probably the most important takeaway from this game was that Bartolo Colon was able to go 5.1 innings and only surrender two runs.… Click here to read the rest

Game 161: Yankees 3, Rays 5

Russell Martin got the Yankees on the scoreboard in the top of the third with a solo homer.  The Yankees had a chance to take the lead as Brett Gardner drew a walk and stole second.  With two outs, the Rays intentionally walked Cano.  Alex Rodriguez walked to load the bases, but Mark Teixeira flew out, ending the threat.

The Yankees rallied again in the top of the fifth as Gardner and Nunez hit back-to-back singles, putting runners on the corners.  Curtis Granderson hit into a double play, but allowed Gardner to score, tying the game at 2-2.  The Pinstripes continued their rally in the sixth, as Rodriguez worked another walk and Teixeira doubled.  A RBI double from Nick Swisher put New York ahead 3-2, but once again they missed a chance at extra runs.  Jorge Posada was intentionally walked, loading the bases with no outs.  Martin followed with a grounder to third, which turned into the perfect triple play ball as Longoria fielded it while standing on third and sent it around the horn to end the inning.  … Click here to read the rest