Trade Match Series-Jair Jurrjens

Whether or not a trade happens between two teams can come down to many nebulous factors, from the relationship between the two GMs, how clubs value players, and the level of motivation a team has to move someone. But one important element that can be looked at objectively is how the teams match up. This is a series where I’m going to look at how the Yankees match up with the other team for their prospective trade targets.

What do the Braves need?

They’re looking for position players, namely a SS to replace Alex Gonzalez immediately and a CF to replace Michael Bourn when he hits FA next year. They could also use a 3B  to take over for Chipper Jones when his contract expires after 2012, or possibly sooner given Larry’s inability to stay healthy in recent years.

Who do the Braves have in their farm system?

Mostly pitchers, which is what gives them the luxury to move Jurrjens in the first place. Their best SS prospect is Matt Lipka, who’s a long way away as a 19 year old in the Sally League where he struggled with the bat (.247/.305/.304) in his first year of full season ball. In AA Mycal Jones struggled to make the shift from SS to CF last year, taking his woes to the plate (.196/.357/.283 in 138 ABs) with him after the move was made last June.

Yankee trade chips that match:

Eduardo Nunez (SS), Brandon Laird (3B), Brett Gardner (CF), Ramiro Pena (SS), Zoilo Almonte (CF), Melky Mesa (CF)

The Ephemeral: 

The Braves may really want to move him since they have a ton of pitching on the way, from Beachy to Minor to Vizcaino to Teheran. Jurrjens will get a big arb bump this year, has trouble staying healthy, and moving him would open up payroll space to make other moves this offseason or during the season next year. The Braves have always operated on a tight budget going all the way back to their glory days on the 1990’s, and while they saved 5M trading Derek Lowe they picked up the rest of the 10 Mil owed to him. The Yanks may be wary of bringing in another Braves pitcher since their recent history with them (Jaret Wright, Javier Vazquez) hasn’t been good.

0 thoughts on “Trade Match Series-Jair Jurrjens

  1. I’d honestly be warry of trading Nunez for Jurrjens straight up, which is something they wouldn’t even consider, so I would say no to Jurrjens altogether. He simply has way too many question marks to fit our search critera. His health is a huge factor and although it hasn’t been full of arm injuries, missing that much time before 26 and losing a MPH off your fastball because of a knee are huge concerns. Add that to the fact that even when healthy he doesn’t miss many bats, doesn’t generate a ton of ground balls, and pitches in the NL he’s someone I’d stay away from. Atlanta has some pitchers I’d trade for, Jurrjens isn’t one of them.

    Honestly I’d rather sign Edwin Jackson than trade for Jair. They have similar peripheral numbers over the last 3 years, yet Jackson has been much much more healthy in that time period, and he’s got much better stuff. I don’t see either as being any more than a 3 pitcher in the East at their best, but Jackson has a ton less questions surrounding him.

  2. Edwin Jackson
    214.0 IP, 6.77 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 39.1 GB%, 3.62 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 4.32 xFIP
    209.1 IP, 7.78 K/9, 3.35 BB/9, 49.4 GB%, 4.47 ERA, 3.86 FIP, 3.71 xFIP
    199.2 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.79 BB/9, 43.8 GB%, 3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.73 xFIP

    Jair Jurrjens
    215.0 IP, 6.36 K/9, 3.14 BB/9, 42.9 GB%, 2.60 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 4.28 xFIP
    116.1 IP, 6.65 K/9, 3.25 BB/9, 39.9 GB%, 4.64 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 4.29 xFIP
    152.0 IP, 5.33 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 42.0 GB%, 2.96 ERA, 3.99 FIP, 4.23 xFIP

    Jackson also holds a better swinging strike percentage in his career (9.1% compared to Jurrjens at 7.4%)

    Besides the fact that Jackson has pitched 140 more innings in the last 3 years (623.0 IP vs 483.1 IP), he’s posted better K/9 marks, similar BB/9 marks, a better GB%, and better FIP/xFIP numbers over the last 3 years all while pitching in the AL. I think he’s proven himself to at least be on par with what Jurrjens has brought to the table, if not actually proven himself to be better. He’s also been trending up over the last few years in terms of production, and even though he won’t be a number 2 starter, he’s much more consistent than his reputation. Factor in the consistent 200 innings every year and he’s a much clearer choice to me between the two.

    I actually think the Braves are very motivated to move him as well, but I don’t think it has as much to do with money as you do. I think they know his value is as high as it’s going to get and they are trying to get out from underneath his knee before it completely blows up and they get nothing in return.

  3. Isn’t there something to be said for the fact that if the Yankees were to trade for Jurrjens at a “reasonable” cost. That he only has 2 years left before he hits FA. If he bombs or he has injury issues that can’t be resolved the Yankees have only that to worry about. Whereas with Jackson is probably going to take a 4 year deal and more money to sign him (Boras is his agent) and as for Buehrle he’s going to get 3 years minimum and probably $30 to $35MM and he’ll be 33 come March of 2012. Seems to me Jurrjens is the lesser of 3 evils if one chooses to use those terms.

    Having said all of that I can certainly understand the Yankees apprehension not having had much luck with Braves pitchers.

  4. BTW- I have the 2nd edition of this series scheduled to run a 2:00 today, and its on Matt Garza. It’s a good read, and after researching the matter I think Yankee fans will be pleased with what I found out.

    The two biggest things to watch for on Garza is where Pujols and Fielder land. If Pujols doesn’t re-sign with the Cards and the Cubs land Fielder, I think Garza stays put. If one or both of those things don;t happen, I think Theo looks to rebuild a farm system that badly needs it. I have serious doubts Theo will land Prince, he bitched for years about Manny’s deal and Prince’s figures to be longer and more expensive. My money’s on Theo rebuilding, and Garza’s value is lost on a team that isn’t competitive.

  5. With Garcia back in the fold I don’t see the Yankees signing Wilson or Darvish. Shame on Darvish, I liked the idea of him. I don’t want Jurrjens. His peripherals are weak, and the Braves are asking for a lot. He doesn’t grade out to much better than the post AAA stint Ivan Nova. Pass.