Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

It’s projection season around the baseball blogosphere. So, why not look at some of the projections out there and see what that gives us in terms of WAR. For this exercise, I’ll be using the Bill James projections, which some guy we know compiled here. To attempt to get the WARs, I’ll use this spreadhseet

CC Sabathia: CC’s projected for 235 innings of 3.30 FIP ball. That, per the spreadsheet, would give us a WAR of 6.5. Shocking.

Ivan Nova: James pegs Nova for a 4.11 FIP in 183 innings, leading to a projected WAR of 3.1. I’d be beyond thrilled with that.

Phil Hughes: Like Larry said in his article, the innings total is a little screwy, but I punched it in anyway: 102 innings at a 3.82 FIP projects out to 2.1 WAR. I won’t hold my breath on that FIP from Hughes, but I’d obviously take it.

A.J. Burnett: 173 innings, 4.36 FIP, 2.4 WAR. Can I sign up for this right now?

Freddy Garcia: 144 innings, 4.43 FIP, 1.9 WAR. Yup, that all makes sense.

Assuming these five are the main starters for the Yankees this year, we end up with 837 innings of 3.95 FIP ball. Last season, the five main Yankee starters (by innings) turned in 889.5 innings and averaged a 3.94 FIP.

Remember, these are just projections. They’re nothing concrete, but they do give us a window into what is (usually) a vaguely reasonable expectation for a player.

2 thoughts on “Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

  1. T.O. Chris

    At 2.4 WAR Burnett would almost have the combination of his last 2 seasons WARs (2.9). Not sure I believe in it though, but I would certainly take it.

  2. Phil C

    Hey Matt. Do you have access to the WAR projections for the Red Sox & the Rays?

    I agree that the projects for AJ seem unrealistically optimistic. And how the hell can anyone have anything but a SWAG for Hughes!

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