Valuing the 2011 Free Agent Class

2. Prince Fielder, 1B

3 Year WAR Trend – 6.4, 3.5, 5.5

Bowden’s Projection – 8/$192M

Chip’s Projection – 8/$185M

Projected Value – $171M

Fielder’s appeal, aside from his unbelievable abilities at the plate, is his age.  At only 27 years old, he’s four years younger than Pujols, and has around 3-4 prime seasons ahead of him.  This alone, makes him a incredibly hot commodity.  Considering his lower price tag, we could see a few teams like the Angels, Orioles, Nationals, and Giants sumbit bids.  Save for the Nationals, who were big time players last winter, I don’t see any of the other three teams being serious bidders.  Ultimately, I see him going to the Cubs as the consolation prize for not landing Pujols.  Concerns about long-term durability, weight, and performance projections keep him from breaking $190M.  8/$185M seems like a slight overpay, as I see him valuing at closer to $170M over the next eight seasons.

3. Jose Reyes, SS

3 Year WAR Trend – 6.4 (2008), 2.9, 6.2

Bowden’s Projection – 6/$108M

Chip’s Projection – 5/$90M

Projected Value – $110M

I’m fully prepared to be wrong on this projection, but I’m going with it anyway. …

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How would Cespedes fit in?

Matt Imbrogno’s post this morning was a very important reminder that we should be skeptical of the hype on the latest great thing, which ties in very nicely to my post on the shiniest of new toys (not things Matt, come on), Yoenis Cespedes, who just emerged on the scene in the last...

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MLB still doesn’t have a competitive balance problem

I also think people underestimate the fact that having money creates its own unique problems. I’m sure a lot of people will dismiss that as the oblivious whining of a privileged Yankees fan, so consider some other big market teams with money, and where the combination of too much money and too few brains have gotten them. The Mets managed to acquire Carlos Beltran, Johan Santana, and Francisco Rodriguez while developing Jose Reyes and David Wright, and they haven’t been to the playoffs since 2006, and haven’t been close since 2008. The Cubs signed Alfonso Soriano to a big deal, for which they’ve earned the right to pay him another $54 million over the next three years, and they got Carlos Zambrano locked up with a $90 million contract and made sure Ryan Dempster had a $14 million player option to take care of their 2012 rotation (the $32 million those two will make next season is more than C.C. Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and Freddy Garcia combined to make in 2011).

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Eric Chavez Is Deep, Man

Walk it off, big guy. Courtesy of Getty Images

(The following is being syndicated from An A-Blog for A-Rod)

I mean real deep.  This time last month he was reportedly “leaning heavily” toward retirement after another season affected...

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Shiny New Thing Syndrome

Yesterday, a certain video about a certain Cuban outfielder was released and people went nuts. A guy few people knew existed on Sunday night was a baseball blogosphere and Twitterverse darling by early Monday morning. Over the next few hours, days, weeks, months, etc., there is going to be a lot of digital ink spilled...

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On all 182 free agents and the Yankees (Part II, and overview)

91. Dan Wheeler: Not a bad pitcher, and will probably be pretty cheap. But he’s basically a ROOGY and he gives up a lot of home runs.

92. Arthur Rhodes: A really old lefty, like Darren Oliver… but he’s not nearly as good. I understand the need for lefty relievers, but I don’t think Rhodes is it.

93. Reed Johnson: You could do much worse for fourth OFs, but the guy should learn how to take a walk. His lefty-killing services will likely be more needed/wanted on a team that didn’t destroy LHP.

94. Rick Ankiel: Mmm, nope.

95. Laynce Nix: Next.

96. Jorge Posada: I love Jorge, obviously, and I’m not at all sure whether he’ll retire or not. As horrible as it is to admit, I kind of hope he does retire. It’ll hurt, but I think if he doesn’t retire, he’ll either get involved in a messy, probably nastyish squabble with the Yankees (and the team doesn’t really have any room for him – if he’d been really good in 2011 there could be some debate about trying to find room for him because, well, he is a team icon, but obviously he wasn’t), or go somewhere else, both of which’ll hurt more.…

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