Make your best offer

The title says it all, folks. I’m going to list a few trade target pitchers and in the comments, I want you to tell us what your best offer would be.

John Danks
Pros: Lefty; decent strikeout/control numbers; affordable; short term commitment.
Cons: So-so ground ball numbers; free agent after 2011.

Gio Gonzalez
Pros: Lefty; great strikeout and ground ball numbers; tons of team control left.
Cons: Big time walk rate; tons of team control = crazy high cost.

Jair Jurrjens
Pros: Experienced; consistent success.
Cons: Injury risk; velocity drop.

Matt Garza
Pros: Talented; A.L. East experience; good control; has shown strikeout stuff.
Cons: Coming off of his best year, so he’s valued much more highly than he should be.

Anyone else?

About Matt Imbrogno

A native and resident of the Mean Streets of Southwestern Connecticut, Matt is a narcissistic, misanthropic 20something English teacher who lives by a simple creed: Yankees Only.

42 thoughts on “Make your best offer

  1. Only Gonzalez and Garza are worth pursuing although I wouldn’t give up more than one of our top prospects (Montero, ManBan or Betances) for even these guys. Your “cons” on the other two are very telling. Gonzalez is controllable and Garza has suceeded in the AL East. HOWEVER, we have guys in the pipeline ready to contribute. Noesi should make the starting rotation this year (as #4 or #5). Phelps and Warren can pick up the slack if anyone is injured. I would rather see Joba in the rotation than AJ. Hughes deserves another shot. Trade AJ for another bad ccontract – maybe a position player like Vernon Wells who could serve as #4 outfielder. The smart thing is to dump AJ and free up a rotation spot. Can anyone argue that he is going to be better than Joba, Hughes or Noesi? We’ve developed the young players, nowe is the time to play them.

    • I would love to see Joba in the rotation but I just don’t think the Yankees have any plans to ever revisit “starter Joba”. He also isn’t due back from injury until June or July, so he’s going to be in the pen for this year at least.

  2. I’ve coveted Garza ever since he went to the Cubs, so he’s the one I’d go for. And I’d truly go for him, as I think his youth and AL East experience is worth the time and money. In terms of who I would give up, I would be willing to part with a top-of-the-line pitching prospect like Betances and might even be willing to throw Hughes or Joba into the deal to make it work. I think both of those guys would thrive in the NL Central. And if Theo gets Betances and either Joba or Phil, he’s half-way fixed his rotation.

    But perhaps I am WAY to high on Garza as he is coming out of the NL Central.

    • I’ll do you one better. I too am very fond of Garza’s record and projected, continuing production .

      Manny Banuelos, Noesi, and Romine or Nunez.

      It doesnt kill our farm. Banuelos simply cannot be projected as the next Johan Santana. That’s just not fair to the kid. Achieving stardom in the MLs is no guarantee. Garza’s done it.

      • I find it funny that so many people are in love with Garza yet find no use for someone like Gonzalez. especially when you consider that at no time with the Rays did Garza have one season as good as either of Gonzalez’s last two seasons.

        184.2 IP, 3.70 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.42 xFIP
        203.0 IP, 3.95 ERA, 4.17 FIP, 4.14 xFIP
        204.2 IP, 3.91 ERA, 4.42 FIP, 4.31 xFIP

        200.2 IP, 3.23 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 4.04 xFIP
        202.0 IP, 3.12 ERA, 3.64 FIP, 3.73 xFIP

        On top of that Gio K’s more batters than Garza does, gets more swinging strikes than Garza does, gets way more ground balls than Garza does, is younger than Garza, and is left handed.

        Perception seems to be that Garza is way better a pitcher than Gio is, but the numbers just don’t back that up. It took Garza transitioning to the NL to actually put up one better season. Sure Garza pitched in the AL East, but it’s not like the Trop is some hitters paradise.

        • Oh, I’d love to get Gio, if Betances + Hughes/Joba were a deal the A’s would accept, but given their reported asking price…

          Like I said, I suspect I’m way too high on Garza.

          • Many people who are high on Garza simply aren’t high on Gio at all. I just find it perplexing why he gets so much love and Gio gets none.

            Joba can’t really be traded at all right now, he won’t even be eligible to pitch until June or July. Also the A’s need offense, they have plenty of young arms. They need bats and in a bad way.

            Betances and Hughes for Gio would be a steal at this point. One they would never do.

            I think we would need to do some sort of three way trade in which we send some of our pitchers, like Banuelos, to a third team who has a young impact outfield bat they would trade to the A’s. Then both teams would add in extra pieces that would mostly go to the A’s, with a piece or two going to the third team either from us or the A’s.

  3. I’d stick with the current staff, unless the Yanks win the posting for Darvish. I’d make room for him. Manny & Jesus are virtual untouchables for me.

  4. If I was an actual GM these would probably not get accepted, but this would be all I’m willing to give. I agree with the “Darvish-first” philosophy.

    Danks: Betances or Williams plus one or two non-star prospects.

    Gonzalez: Betances or Williams plus maybe two guys out of the following group: Whelan, Phelps, Warren, Romine, Murphy, plus some copies of Moneyball (movie, not book).

    Jurrjens: I’m not too high on him. Nunez and Jorge Vazquez? I’d like to keep Vazquez but the Yankees aren’t gonna call him up anyways, so might as well let him go.

    Garza: Similar package to Gonzalez, except maybe Stoneburner would be available too.

  5. George A. King III of the New York Post is reporting that the Yankees are only willing to assume 8 million dollars of AJ Burnett’s contract in a trade.

    If this is true everyone needs to just get use to AJ in the Yankees rotation. I personally haven’t felt they would trade him this season anyway, after this I am even more sure he isn’t going anywhere. No one is going to pay 25 million for the next 2 seasons for Burnett.

    • You mean except the Yankees who are going to pay $33 million for those two seasons ;-)

      • haha of course. I also think he provides more value to the Yankees than he does to other teams though. Which is probably why they aren’t trying to get rid of him ay any cost.

        Say what you will about Burnett, but since he’s been a Yankee the one thing he has done is take the ball every 5 days without fail. The starts haven’t always been what you were looking for out of him, but he has consistently made every single start he was scheduled for over the past 3 years. Which on a team with rotational depth issues has some value. You aren’t running around looking for last second replacements, scouting the waiver wire just to find someone to make a start.

        Other teams won’t value that in the same way the Yankees do. Otherwise I think you would see them willing to pay more of the money to simply get rid of him.

        • Yeah, I agree. Burnett has been (for the most part) a stand up guy, has taken the ball every 5 days and while the results, particularly in the past two years, have not been there he hasn’t quit on the team or himself.

          Right now the Yankees need quantity as much as quality. When they have the opportunity to add more quality then AJ, barring a stunning turn around, will lose his rotation spot and maybe his roster spot. Until then, somebody has to pitch those innings and unless Noesi or one of the depth guys at AAA just outright beats AJ out of that spot in spring training he’ll be out there.

          Besides, who would do the shaving cream pies for the walk offs if he’s traded?

  6. Seems like Nunez may be on the block in a trade.

    The Yankees have won the bidding right to Hiroyuki Nakajima, the winning bid was 2 million dollars. They now have 30 days to negotiate a contract, the Yankees view Nakajima as a utility player”.

  7. Of the pitchers listed above I think Gio has the most potential going forward. He has risk associated with his walk rates, which against veteran AL East like lineups can really hurt him. But I think of the 4 he has the highest upside to that of a number 2, possibly number 1 starter.

    I would be fine with Banuelos being traded in a 3 team trade for Gio, in which a 3rd team provides the bat the A’s want. Though I wouldn’t add any of the other big names (Montero) in the deal.

    I don’t think we have the upper minor league position based talent to trade for Gio in a 2 team trade, unless we are trading Montero and I don’t think Gio is worth Montero as of now.

  8. John Danks: Betances + Romine
    Gio Gonzalez: no offer; too many walks
    Jair Jurrjens: no offer; too many injuries
    Matt Garza: see Danks + another pitcher, e.g. Mitchell
    Anyone else?
    Zack Greinke
    Pros: Talented; A.L. experience; good control; has shown strikeout stuff, Brewers want to get rid of 13 mio to go for Fielder.
    Cons: Psychologically questionable.
    Offer: Hughes + another pitcher (e.g. Mitchell) + Mason Williams

  9. I am with those willing to include Betances in a deal for Garza or Danks. I am not persuaded Betances will ever have sufficient command to succeed as a starter, much less at the front of a rotation. But Danks becomes a free agent after this season. I would not be prepared to give anything significant beyond Betances to get him. Most of the other names mentioned by Yankee fans in possible deals — Mitchell, Laird, and even Romine — won’t add enough to make the difference without a Betances in the equation.

  10. Under no circumstances offer Montero for anyone. This is a once in a generation bat. I don’t see trading for any of these guys with what we have in the pipeline and on the roster, with the possibility of Darvish looming.

    • That’s ridiculous, you wouldn’t trade Montero for anyone? I could list 10 pitchers right now the Yankees would gladly part with Montero for.

      Clayton Kershaw, Felix Hernandez, Jered Weaver, Cole Hamels, Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Verlander, lincecum, David Price, and Jon Lester.

      That doesn’t mean that any of these pitchers are available, but if at any point one was made available the Yankees would offering packages built around Montero in a heartbeat.

      Montero is a fine prospect, with a killer projected bat, but he honestly isn’t likely to be a HOF player like so many fans are all but guaranteeing. To be honest the best comparison for Montero is Carlos Lee. I’ve actually had people get mad at me for comparing Montero to Lee, but when you look at the numbers we would all be lucky if he has that kind of career.

      Lee’s best years:
      .291/.331/.499, .357 wOBA, 31 HRs
      .305/.366/.525, .379 wOBA, 31 HRs
      .300/.355/.540, .379 wOBA, 37 HRs
      .303/.354/.528, .370 wOBA, 32 HRs
      .314/.368/.569, .396 wOBA, 28 HRs
      .300/.343/.489, .355 wOBA, 26 HRs

      Lee’s career triple slash line .286/.339/.491, .355 wOBA, with 349 HRs, 1286 RBI.

      That would be an awesome career every Yankee fan should sign up for right now if given the choice, yet no one is calling that a one in a lifetime bat.

      • I’m not sure I would put Montero in a trade for either Halladay or Lee because of the age factor. Yeah, I know he was offered for both of those guys but that was 2-3 years ago. With Montero almost a lock to be on the Opening Day roster and both Doc and Cliff a couple of years older I’m not sure it makes sense today.

        As for the rest of the guys on your list, yeah I would put Montero in the trade.

        The Carlos Lee comparison is a fair one. I would be happy with that level of production from Montero (and so would the Yankees) although I’m hoping he’s more of an Edgar Martinez (higher OBP with little sacrifice in power).

        • Who wouldn’t want him to be a HOF worthy DH? I just don’t see Montero having that kind of OBP skill set. He seems to be a low walk, higher K, high contact type of skill set. Somewhat like Cano only with less contact and more raw power.

          Martinez has a career OBP of .418 and 4 times in his career posted an OBP of .447+. I just don’t think Montero has that kind of patience, or will ever work the count that much.

          When you look at Edgar Martinez’s OBP skill set in the minor league even he was already a guy working counts and posting over .400 OBP’s.

          Edgar Martinez career minor league OBP of .412, .434 OBP in his first year in triple A in 129 games, and a career triple A OBP of .450 in 276 games.

          Jesus has a career minor league OBP of a .366, .353 OBP in his first year in triple A in 123 games, and a career triple A OBP of .351 in 232 games.

          The skill sets just don’t matchup well for a comparison. That’s why I never liked the Edgar Martinez, Manny Ramirez, etc… comparisons. His best comparison for me is Lee.

          • I don’t know about that. The Lee comparison is a fair one, as I said before, but Montero’s minor league OBP numbers, while not nearly as good as Edgar’s, are better than Lee’s. Lee was in the .325 to .360 range in his full seasons while Montero’s lowest OBP numbers were ~ .350 and ranged into the upper .300s.

            You’re right, he won’t likely be an Edgar Martinez but I did say I was hoping he would be more of an Edgar Martinez – not that I was certain he will be that good. The numbers tell me there seems to be some basis for that hope.

          • Lee also never struckout as much in the minor leagues as Montero did, so he seems to have had a better grasp of the strikezone in that respect.

            Well we’ll have to agree to disagree, because looking at the numbers I don’t see anyway in the world he will become THAT KIND of OBP guy. Montero profiles more as a good power, high contact, high K guy. If he just walks in the 7-8% category I would be thrilled.

            I just think this whole “he’s a one in a generation bat” stuff needs to cool somewhat. Sure he could become that, but likely he won’t. He should be a very good pro, with a very low bust rate. But for me I’ve seen him be way overvalued amongst Yankee fans.

          • I am quite interested to see what Montero does with a full year of Long’s coaching in the bigs. People were saying comparable things about Cano and Grandersons’ weaknesses at various points in the past couple years. One thing Kevin Long has proven is that he can make good bats who are willing to be coached great bats.

            Here’s hoping Montero is willing to be coached (especially after the rumors about his attitude last year).

          • But even with Granderson’s and Cano’s improvements over the years they both still maintain a weak walk rate. Cano posting a miniscule 5.6% last year, but he manages to still be elite because of a small K%. He makes extreme contact, but would vastly improve upon his game with even a small improvement in walk%. See 2010 for an example.

            Granderson actually posted a career high in BB% last year at 12.3, but his K% was the second highest of his career at 24.5%.

            I tend to believe that the one thing you can’t teach is patience and the ability to walk. You can improve upon it some, but if you aren’t a high walk guy you won’t ever become one. The same with K’s, if you are a high K guy you can learn to cut it down some but you’ll never completely cut it out of your game. Someone like Granderson can work on his K% all he wants, but I don’t believe he will ever get below 19-20% with it on a regular basis.

            Again I’m not bashing Montero, I just think he is always going to be someone who K’s in the low 20’s high teens and walks in the 8% range. With his power that should be good enough, but it shouldn’t ever be enough to put him in the .400 OBP category. That is simply an elite range most guys will never come close to.

  11. For Danks – Mason Williams, D.J. Mitchell

    For Gio – one of the Almontes’, Betances, Melky Mesa

    Jurrjens – no offer, too many concerns regarding velo drop and NL/AL transition

    Garza – Betances, Mason Williams, Gary Sanchez + filler. They’d turn that down but it would be foolish to offer anything else. He’s not a definitive #2.

  12. Gonzalez for Gardner & Betances. I like Gardner, but his production can be replaced easier than finding a #2/#3 SP

    Garza & Zambrano & Soriano for Betances, Burnett, Romine & J Vasquez

    Gives Cubs a SP and 1 in the wings, a #1/#2 Catcher and 1B help plus huge payroll relief. They could go after Fielder with the payroll savings.

    • The Cubs would jump for joy over that deal and I would cry.

      Burnett is owed 33 million over the next 2 seasons, but the Yankees would be taking on 72 million over the next 3 years with 54 million over the next 3 years for Soriano, and 18 million for this year with Zambrano.

      So instead of simply having to endure Burnett for another 2 years they would have to endure Zambrano next year, and take Soriano on for the next 3 years as a 4th outfielder making 18 million per season. Plus we have to give up Romine and Betances. Vazquez means nothing to either team.

      Cashman should be run out of town with pitchforks and sticks on fire if he makes that deal.

      • I agree to a point, but cash is something the Yankees can afford.

        Soriano put up good numbers last year, so will be a good addition offensively. Garza solidifies the rotation and Zambrano/Burnett is a wash as to talent/potential.

        Romine will never be more than a Back-Up catcher with the Yankees and Betances is still an unknown until he can master his control.

        We get our #2 guy without giving up our Big 2 and any Major league guys.

        • Soriano would be an 18 million dollar a year 4th outfielder. That makes no sense no matter how much money you have, and by all reports the Yankees are trying to cut payroll by 2014 for the CBA benefits.

          Also Soriano put up terrible numbers last year. His triple slash line and wOBA were awful .244/.289/.469, .325 wOBA and he only hit 26 HRs to go with those awful on base numbers. Plus he’s one of the worst fielding outfielders in baseball. He costs more runs than he puts up at this point in his career.

          In fact Soriano hasn’t had a good season since 2008. His last 3 have been abysmal.

          2009- .241/.303/.423, .314 wOBA, 20 HRs
          2010- .258/.322/.496, .353 wOBA, 24 HRs
          2011- .244/.289/.469, .325 wOBA, 26 HRs

          The only thing he does is hit HRs and on our team he wouldn’t even get consistent enough playing time for that to matter. Plus he would only be worth putting in the game at DH because Gardner, Granderson, and Swisher are all infinitely better fielders.

          Plus you are doing all this to add Garza who hasn’t proven himself to be anymore than a number 3 pitcher in the AL.

  13. NONE of the guys are worth trading for.

    We don’t need another #3 level.

    If we’re trading a bunch of people, we have to get someone damn sure to make us better, not a guy might or might not be as good as Nova.

  14. Okay I’ll play:

    John Danks
    A rental. I’d shy away but offer a quantity over quality in a bunch of rule 5ers such as Brandy Laird, Pena, Warren ect who won’t add much than AAA depth that youre gonna lose anyway.

    Gio Gonzalez
    Push Montero on them. He’s blocked. He can’t catch even as good as Cervelli and Arod’s salary puts him at DH longterm eventually. Have to add an arm. No big deal.

    Jair Jurrjens
    Tough ask, think the Braves are impressed by mid level Yankee prospect pitching like Viscaino who they got for Javy so Becantes if they press it throw in Romine if Jair can pass his physical.

    Matt Garza
    Go blockbuster on this one. Insist the Cubs take Burnett and the Yanks assume Zambrano as well salary for salary , throw in Swisher and fill the gaps in with loads of prospects that Theo loves.

  15. I am astonished at the willingness of some to trade a talent like Betances who offers six years of low cost and potentially hi grade performance(even if only out of pen) for a 1 year rental like Danks. New CBA makes every Yankee prospect worth far more than they were just a couple of weeks ago as new young talent will now be hard to come by.

    For Danks: Romine and Kontos

    Gonzales: Sanchez,Warren, Nunez

    Garza: Granderson (and perhaps Murphy)

    Juerggens: Andrew Brackman

    • I think it would be a mistake to value someone more simply because of the CBA. When it comes to trades you have to value a player based on talent almost exclusively, which for Betances is decently high, but his floor is also extremely low.

      The Yankees also don’t value “6 years of low cost” like a small market team like the Rays doo. If you think Betances is going to be a bullpen guy most likely and you can trade him for a starter you do it. We also have a stacked pen, so it makes no sense to hang on to a projected setup man just because he would be cheap team controlled for a few years.

      Brackman isn’t on the team anymore.

      • Sorry,TOC, you don’t just value on talent. You have to take cost into account, if for no other reason than piling on payroll costs limits access to future talent. And scarcity certainly raises value. For all those reasons, prospects are far more important with new CBA.
        Obviously, Brackman has been released– that was my point. Betances does not have low floor (though anyone of course can get hurt). But his floor should be as highly effective late-inning power strikeout pitcher. Six years of that is worth a whole lot more than 1 year of an above-average starter. And there is a decent chance, Betacnces himself will succeed as starter.

        • Of course money plays some factor, but it’s not going to be an overwhelming factor when it comes to trading a guy like Betances. If you are the Yankees and you don’t believe in him as a starter that is going to take precedent over 6 years of cost controlled talent. The money he costs is going to be the least factored in part of trading or not trading Betances.

          Actually his floor is that of a bust out or middle innings reliever. He can’t control the strikezone at all, because of that you can’t say that he is either a starter or a closer/set up man. That’s just not realistic. There are plenty of guys who throw hard who don’t end up as setup men or closers because they have no control. Including plenty of guys who throw harder than Betances does who simply didn’t make it.

          Betances has a high ceiling, but he has almost as low a floor. If you are saying he can’t be anything less than a setup/closer I think you are mistaken.

    • Edwin’s not a bad player but if Buehrle can get 4 years 58 million, Scott Boras can get at least 4 years if not 5 for Jackson. So in that case I say no thanks. He’s no better than a number 3 starter, and at times he’s much closer to a number 4. Plus his upside has pretty much been reached, he isn’t really going to get much better than he is right now.

      I’d rather ante up on the trade and get Gio simply because he is younger, left handed, and has a lot more potential in his upside.

      Jackson is comparable to Danks, fangraphs did a great piece on it, but Danks breaks the tie for the Yankees by being left handed.