I’ve said it a lot that I’m not a big fan of Matt Garza. I don’t think he’s a bad pitcher or anything, but I don’t necessarily think he’s as good as made out to be right now, especially after a stellar 2011 that saw him put up 5.0 fWAR for the Cubbies. People point to his stuff and his AL East success (6.0 fWAR in two seasons with the Rays) and say he’d be a perfect #2 starter for the Yankees. I’ve disagreed, citing low ground ball numbers which could hurt him in Yankee Stadium, as well as up-and-down strikeout numbers. I’d also like to see if he’s really learned to keep the ball in the park like he did in 2011. Regardless of all this, I think it’s worth it to run Garza through the trade value calculator and see if he is worth as much as some say he is.
I did the legwork and assuming a projected salary of $8.7M for 2012 and a projected WAR of 5.5 for 2012, as well as a projected $10.7M salary in 2013 with a 3.8 WAR projection (2009-2012 WARs added up and divided by four), I came out with $58.2M of trade value for Garza.
Yesterday, friend of the blog Brien Jackson posited this package for Garza:
Does Banuelos, Warren, Phelps, and Williams get the Cubs to agree to trade Garza?
Manny Banuelos was the #41 BA ranked prospect, so that’s $20.8M right there. I’m going to be generous and assume that Mason Williams is somewhere in the 51-75 range for hitters, giving him $12.6M worth of value. Adding in Adam Warren and David Phelps, both grade B pitchers, we get $13M total value ($6.5 each). Add that all up and we get $46.4 of value. If Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein live and die by the trade calculator (they obviously don’t or won’t), then they say no to this package of players. We’ve heard recent interest in Garza from the Blue Jay as well as the Red Sox and Yankees. That post says, however, that the asking price is already high.
I have to wonder, though, if either the Jays or the Sox could top the package Brien proposed earlier today. But, would the Yankees do that package? Would I do that package if I were Brian Cashman? I..don’t know. By the theoretical calculator, it’s essentially okay. But I still think there are enough questions about Garza in my mind that I wouldn’t.