Via Ken Rosenthal, Major League Baseball and the MLBPA have agreed on a plan to expand the postseason to 10 teams this season. An announcement will be forthcoming tomorrow. This isn’t anything we didn’t already know was coming, but there was some question whether this year or next year would be the first season the new format was in play. With five teams (the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, Rangers, and Angels) figuring to be solid wild card contenders if they don’t win their divisions, the new rules figure to make for a pretty fun stretch run heading into the ALDS. At least one of those teams will find themselves left out of the playoffs altogether, and two of them will probably square off in a one game wild card playoff. How does Jered Weaver vs. David Price in a one-game playoff (with the Red Sox the team missing out entirely, naturally) sound?
If you aren’t a big fan of the Yankees’ decision to trade Jesus Montero to Seattle this winter, you might want to stay clear of this report from Bob Harkins of Hardball Talk. Harkins talked to Montero at Mariners’ camp, and Jesus talked up his desire to stick at the catcher position in the big leagues while comparing himself to another bat first catcher with questionable skills behind the plate you might have heard of before (that would be Jorge Posada, if you don’t appreciate opacity. And yes, that was me trolling for an excuse to use “opacity” in a sentence.).
If Montero can stay at catcher long term, the trade is going to start to look a lot better for Seattle than it has, to me, since it was finalized, and if Michael Pineda doesn’t develop into an ace, Brian Cashman may well regret agreeing to the move. However, I’m extremely skeptical that Montero can actually handle catching on a regular basis. What was once a polarizing discussion of his defensive tools slowly turned into a near consensus that Montero lacked the receiving skills and athleticism needed to handle the position last season, and while the Yankees always insisted that they viewed him as a catcher, they never put their money where there mouth was on that contention in terms of the big league team. Indeed, if the Yankees actually thought he could be a catcher, say, next season, I very much doubt they would have even seriously considered trading him for anyone this side of Felix Hernandez or Clayton Kershaw.
The Mariners have every incentive to give Montero a chance to develop behind the plate, and it’s a good thing that Montero wants to work hard at mastering the position, I suppose, but if Montero does develop into a serviceable major league backstop, it would be quite the surprise at this point.
Back in December, I briefly discussed the new rule in the CBA governing the usage of low-density (LD) maple. A reminder on the rule in question:
The ban would only apply to new major leaguers. Other players would be grandfathered and could continue using low-density bats if desired.
As you might remember, too, I have been pretty darned vocal about this shattered bat thing for, well, ever. Because of this obsession of mine, I developed a new BFF in the baseball universe, Wendy Thurm from FanGraphs and Baseball Nation. She asked me a few questions via email and I send a whole mess of a response her way. She turned it into something much better, as you can read here. Like the pro she is, she took only a quote from me:
I’ve been as outspoken as anyone about this issue. The new restriction on bat density for new players is a step in the right direction, but it is not enough.
A number of potential solutions have been developed. Some include radical multi-piece bats that will likely never see a major league game under current MLB Rule 1.10 as they fundamentally change the time-honored equipment of the game. Other solutions include ultra-thin polymer films that wrap the bat to keep the barrel and handle in place should the bat suffer what the manufacturers call a “multi-part failure”, something that has passed significant MLB-approved testing at their Lowell, MA facility. [videos here]
Regardless of the possible remedies available now or in the future, as long as the players want the thin handle, heavy barrel bats that create a whip-like action, bats will continue to shatter. According to MLB regulations, the difference between the bat length and weight can be no greater than 3.5. In other words, a 35” bat cannot be lighter than 31.5 oz. Bats with bigger barrels and narrower handles that push the limits of physics and this rule (or exceed them due to player modification such as sanding the handles for weight/narrowness) all greatly contribute to this problem.
If you want to see/read/learn a bit more about bats, low-density vs. high-density, maple vs. ash, read on friends. After the jump, be warned, my mess of a response to her questions in its completeness. So yeah, I ramble a bit. Sue me.
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Bobby Valentine said something about the Yankees yesterday, and apparently it was inflammatory enough that New York media outlets other than Valentine’s official stenographer ESPN New York picked it up. This is supposed to get under the Yankees’ skin or make people like me write something about it, but…meh. Maybe it’s just me, but I think all this does is make Valentine come off as a buffoon. On the other hand, maybe Valentine is just trying to re-establish the Red Sox’ identity. As many wise people pointed out last winter when the Red Sox acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford; when new players come to the Yankees, they talk about winning championships, but when they go to Boston they talk about beating the Yankees. So I guess Bobby V is just integrating himself into the local culture?
Most of all, I can’t for the life of me understand why I’m supposed to care about or be impressed with Bobby Valentine at all. Honest question; has any other manager created such a legend for himself while accomplishing as little on the field as Valentine has? Heck, the guy hasn’t even worked in Major League Baseball for a decade now so, if anything, you’d think his hiring by the Red Sox would have been greeted with at least a fraction of the snickering the Orioles got for hiring Dan Duquette. But Valentine knows how to give the writers material, and that makes him popular with the people who control the narrative. That’s great for his career and his public image, but it isn’t plugging the holes on the Red Sox roster or keeping Kevin Youkilis off of the the disabled list, which is a lot more important to the Red Sox win-loss record than what sort of “clever” shots at the Yankees Valentine can think up.
And maybe that’s why I just can’t bring myself to care about Valentine like I’m “supposed” to; I don’t think his schtick is going to wear well in Boston if things start going South on the field, and I honestly don’t think he’ll have his present job for very long at all.
A couple of quick notes from Spring Training today, Yankees’ manager Joe Girardi announced that Robinson Cano will indeed be batting third in the lineup this year, while seeming to indicate that the rest of the batting order remain fluid (though of course we can all guess at what it will be). My initial instinct is to think that having A-Rod batting third with Cano in the clean up spot would be more productive, but the 3-6 spots in the Yankees’ lineup are pretty interchangeable, really. Girardi also stated that only C.C. Sabathia and Hiroki Kuroda have guaranteed spots in the starting rotation, which is cute.
On a more substantive note, Joba Chamberlain threw off of a full mound for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery. Joba threw 15 fastballs, a program he’ll repeat Friday, after which the trainers will evaluate a plan to incorporate breaking balls into his throwing program.
William touched on this this morning, but odds are this is Nick Swisher‘s last season as a Yankee. Though picking up his 2012 option last fall was a no-brainer, Swisher is a free agent at the end of this season, and it will be hard for the Yankees to come to an agreement with Swisher at anything approaching market value if they’re going to hit their 2014 payroll target, at least after accounting for a new contract with Robinson Cano that we all assume the team will agree to. Nevertheless, Swisher insists he wants to remain in pinstripes as long as possible:
“I wish I could write in a book and script it out,” he said Sunday. “I’d be here for the rest of my career.”
That decision lies mostly in the hands of the Yankees. But Swisher can play a part. A free agent at season’s end, a strong campaign could turn his script into reality.
“I know I’m going to go out there and bust my (butt), do everything I can to make that decision real difficult,” he said.
I’m pretty sure Swisher would take a discount on salary to stay with the Yankees, but I’m not sure he’ll even consider taking a large enough one that he can remain with the team after his contract expires. The Yankees already have large existing commitments to Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira, and will need to work something out with Cano before the 2014 season begins. They may also want to try to keep Curtis Granderson in town, and are reportedly amenable to an extension with Russell Martin that would include 2014. Add all of that up, and I don’t see any way that Swisher can realistically fit into the team’s plans after this year.
Here’s a Geico SportsNite clip on Swisher’s impending free agency.
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Over the past couple weeks, both sports that I’m intimately involved with—baseball and European soccer—have seen semi-crises surrounding possible doping among one (or more) of their star players. Larry and Brien have done a fantastic job chronicling Ryan Braun’s struggle with doping allegations on IIATMS, so there’s no need for a refresher on all of that. However, over the course of the last week, a well-known journalist (I won’t use his name for fear of another heated interaction) accidentally reported on Irish national radio that one of FC Barcelona’s star midfielders was using “growth hormone,” and had been publicly for some time. I won’t address the actual allegations, which I have since taken down from my site, as he has since corrected himself—apparently, he meant to say “growth factors”—but will instead compare the ways in which baseball and soccer fans have had to deal with the inevitable question of doping.
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How can you not like Nick Swisher? He has been as refreshing and fun a player the New York Yankees have employed in recent memory. But more importantly, Swisher has been as productive on the field for the Yankees as he has been fun to have around. Swisher’s play the last three years as a Yankee has been worth $47.6 million while only costing the Yankees $21.35 million in actual salary. You can’t help but love that value proposition. Nick Swisher’s contract runs out at the end of the 2012 season. Yesterday, Craig Williams of Rant Sports suggested the Yankees strongly consider re-signing the right fielder. The odds of that happening are between zero to slim.
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Not that this is going to surprise anyone, but Joel Sherman says the fifth starter “competition” is Phil Hughes‘ to lose:
We can pretend there is a competition going on for the Yankees’ No. 5 starter spot, but that is what it is. Pretend. The WWE stages more realistic battles.
[...]
But understand this: The competition is rigged. If it is close, Hughes wins. If it is advantage Garcia, but only slightly, Hughes wins. Hughes can only lose this by doing what he did last spring, having his fastball go on a mysterious hiatus.
That sounds about right, though I think Sherman is overstating his case a little bit. I very much doubt that there’s ever a real competition in any camp, and that teams generally have an idea of what they’re going to decide going in unless the situation forces them to change course. To that end, the question isn’t whether the competition should be an open one, but whether the Yankees are right to consider Hughes the preliminary favorite. That seems like a no-brainer to me.
Put simply; the Yankees have invested far too much, and Hughes still has too much upside, to essentially throw in the towel on his development as a starter now, especially for a trivial gain from the fifth starter position. It would be one thing if he was just inexplicably awful last season but, for whatever reason, he was hurt at the beginning of the year and lost the season’s first three months as a result. And with Hughes eligible for after the 2013 season, the Yankees have to figure out what, if anything, he can give them in the long run now. Considering that the stakes are so relatively low (how many fifth starters around the league would you prefer to have over Hughes?), and that Garcia will be in the fold to step in should Hughes not work out this time around, there’s not really any good reason for the Yankees to send Hughes to the bullpen unless he forces them to.
It’s been an interesting winter for the Yankees’ farm system. The team traded away Jesus Montero, who’s been the organization’s top prospect for what seems like forever, yet still ranks amongst the top top echelon of organizations according to most evaluators, thanks in large part to the emergence of young talents like Mason Williams, Dante Bichette Jr., and Ravel Santana. All in all, the Yankees had four prospects make each of the big three top 100 lists that are published each year even after Montero was traded. That’s impressive depth anyway you slice it.
So on that note, I’m happy to present to you my first attempt at ranking the top 30 prospects in the Yankees’ system. These aren’t necessarily hard-and-fast ranks, by any means. There’s a number of places where there’s not a lot separating any five or six players, and even at the top I think there’s a lot of room for debate, and not a lot of daylight between numbers one and four, in my opinion. Ultimately it comes down to what you put value on and a fair amount of guess work about which each player can become. Usually I’m the kind of person who favors players who are closer to the big leagues over those in the lower minors because it’s much easier to guess at what they’re capable of in the show, but in putting these rankings together I found myself really prizing upside over security when it came down to it. Why? I have no idea, really. Maybe that’s just the way the system shakes out right now, with so many talented youngsters populating the lower levels of the system. Maybe it’s because of the new rules for acquiring amateur players, which will make it harder for teams like the Yankees to stock up a large number of those high ceiling kind of players. Or maybe that’s just the way I was feeling on the day I sat down and put the rankings together. Whatever the case, just keep that in mind when you’re reading the list, and adjust accordingly if you have different preferences.
So with that said, here’s the list:
1. Gary Sanchez C/DH:
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Only thing that could have made this more awkward would be if someone was using the urinal while Alex Rodriguez was trying to look all mean-like. And you thought baseball was all glamour… What, no dividers? How pedestrian!
(h/t to LoHud)
Via Bryan Hoch, Joe Girardi has announced the starting rotation for the first week of Spring Training contests.
Friday March 2nd vs. Southern Florida: Adam Warren
Saturday March 3rd at Phillies: Ivan Nova
Sunday March 4th vs. Phillies: Freddy Garcia
Monday March 5th at Phillies: Michael Pineda
Tuesday March 6th at Pirates: C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes
Wednesday March 7th vs. Rays: Hiroki Kuroda
All games will start at 1:05 P.M. EST, with the Saturday, Sunday, Monday, and Wednesday games broadcast on YES and MLB Network.
Mason Williams raised a lot of eyebrows last year with his performance with the Staten Island Yankees, and he’s rocketed up the prospect rankings this winter, appearing on all three major top 100 lists, and being ranked in the top 40 by ESPN’s Keith Law. That’s high praise for a youngster like Williams, but it certainly seems merited, as Williams displays solid hit and defense tools along with an above average arm and plus-plus speed. In fact, the only tool that appears to be in question in Williams’ arsenal is his power, and the Yankees’ prized outfield prospect is intent on making sure that isn’t a problem.
“They told us not to even bring gloves, bats, or cleats,” Williams said of the offseason training regimen he participated in at the Yankees’ complex in Tampa. “After six weeks I had probably gained 10 to 15 pounds.” Williams says he currently weighs about 185 pounds which, as Mark Feinsand notes, is a big increase from the 160 pounds he tipped the scales at last spring.
I ranked Williams third in my top 30 prospect list, which was mostly a function of his age/level and questions about his ability to hit for power. If, however, Williams puts on the muscle and develops the sort of power that makes ~20 home runs a realistic big league ceiling for him, there’s not much keeping him away from the top spot on the list, and the potential for bona fide superstardom in the big leagues.
