There were a couple of factors at play during DRob’s fantastic 2011:
Luck. DRob’s peripheral numbers suggest that good luck played at least some part in his fantastic 2011. At the very basic level, he performed better (1.08 ERA) than his FIP (1.84) or his xFIP (2.46) predicted; at the same time, these peripherals still indicate that he had an incredible season, especially when you consider that he had never recorded an xFIP under 3.15 in the majors.
So what’s responsible for the dip in ERA (and the ERA-like stats)? Here’s where things get a bit dicey. In 2011, DRob stranded runners a whopping 89.8 percent of the time. That’s more than 10 percentage points higher than his career average of 79.1%. It’s also a pretty unsustainable mark: to give you an example, Mariano Rivera’s career strand rate is 80.1%, and DRob’s 89.8% is better than every single year Mo pitched except for his unreal 91.8% in 2009. Unfortunately, DRob is due for a bit of a regression in 2012—though it may not be as drastic as we might expect (I’ll get to this later).
Another area of DRob’s 2011 that seems unsustainable is his 2.3% HR/FB rate (and the accompanying 0.14 HR/9), which was more than 6% better than any of his previous major league seasons, and 5% better than his career rate of 7.4%. This is a major contributor to his low ERA, and is due for some major regression in 2012. (Another point of comparison: Mo has a career 6.2% HR/FB).
Finally, and I’m sure you saw this one coming, DRob’s .289 BABIP is 30 points under his career average, and 31 points lower than the .320 that he recorded in 2009 (his best in the majors). He has always been a high BABIP pitcher, so why did he suddenly drop below the MLB average? Was it all just a mirage, a lucky fluke? I don’t think so.
The Cutter. In 2011, DRob incorporated a strong, late-moving cutter into his arsenal. This pitch appeared, seemingly, out of nowhere: Russel Martin, for one, found it “hard to explain because it has such good rotation it just explodes at the end.” Where had he been hiding this pitch? Not only was the cutter a perfect compliment to his pretty straight fastball and 12-6 curve, it actually transformed DRob’s game statistically.
He threw his fastball less (49.6% of the time in 2011, compared with 74.3% in 2010), and opposing players hit the ball on the ground more (his 46.3% ground ball rate is the best of his career); he flipped his ratios around—he went from a 0.86 GB/FB ratio in 2009 (1.11 in 2010) to a 1.44 GB/FB ration in 2011. He also experienced declines in line drive rate (down to 21.6% from 24.5% in 2010) and fly ball rate (down to 32.1% from a high of 41.3% in 2009 and 35.8% in 2010). This, at least in part, can explain some of the drop in his HR rate and his BABIP.
So what do we make of Mr. Robertson? On first glance, his peripheral numbers do seem to predict some regression to the mean—a 2012 LOB% higher than 85%, for example, would be very unlikely—but that doesn’t mean that he won’t continue to have a lot of success (and be a fantastic pitcher). There’s no reason to think that he won’t be able to maintain his strikeout rate, for example, and his 4.73 BB/9 could even get better in 2012. While his BABIP and HR/FB rates were exceptionally low, there’s some reason to believe that he will be able to maintain at least marginally low levels in 2012, especially if he keeps throwing his cutter for strikes and getting ground balls at a similar rate.
Ultimately, the Yankees have a fantastic late-inning weapon in DRob. Sure, he’s bound to regress a little (as IIATMS said in October of 2011), but it seems to me that he could very well be the Yankees’ late-inning go-to guy for quite some time.
Great first post, Gabe. I'm looking forward to more. And I am rather good looking in a round kind of cuddly way.
Robertson has to regress at least a little. There were far too many Houdini acts for them not to catch up with him. Though he could remain truly impressive if he didn't walk so many batters in coming seasons.
Thanks! But yeah, considering how good he was while carrying that bloated BB/9, I can only imagine how much better he'd be if he could bring that down even a little bit.
Agreed. Nice debut, Gabe. Happy to have you on board!
HIM really enjoyed your writing…welcome
He'll probably regress a little bit in terms of LOB%, but his new found groundball tendencies and his insane strikeout/whiff rates definitely help him strand runners.
A fine and thought provoking first post. The one thing that jumped out at me was the incorporation of the cutter into his repertoire. While he won't replace Mo (no one ever will), that pitch was the one that made Mo what he his and it wouldn't be surprising if Robertson at least provided a reasonable alternative once Mo decides to move on. But he must be more economical by being more aggressive when he's ahead in the count. How many times does he take an 0-2 count to 3-2? That has to be reduced, which will also reduce the walk count.
For a guy just out of diapers you did a good job.
. Personally I find relief pitchers overrated, and if there is some team out there willing to give us a solid player in return, I'd be happy to move him (and he is one of my favorite players on the team). Otherwise I'm sizing him up for big shoes next season.
Welcome aboard Gabe. Loved it. I believe I'm good looking. So thanks for the compliment:)
Hi Gabe- I don't post many comments but I read almost all of the articles, and I enjoyed yours. Not to get off the topic of your post, but I read a book about baseball in Europe and apparently some years ago it was pretty standard for the players of Real Madrid (and other Spanish soccer teams) to play baseball during the soccer offseason. Greetings from Germany!
Love it, IIATMS Global Enterprises and Whatnot.
You know, I've heard of that. Would you mind telling me the title of the book? I'd love to take a look.
Very nice first article Gabe! His cutter is going to be an incredibly dangerous weapon for him as he'll generate more ground balls and pop flys as a result. Another regression factor could be in his HR/FB% which was only 2.3% last year. He's not homer prone, but I bet we see him give up more than one homer in 2012.
Excellent start Gabe congrats! I suppose we should expect some regression from Robertson given that this is an unbelievable season, but given that he is still young and developed a new and highly effective pitch, would it be out of the realm of possibilities to expect not much in the way of regression? If I remember correctly, during once stretch of games when he was used consistently, D-Rob also used a changeup to great effect. While im not suggesting he could do better than this previous season, or even repeat it, I dont think he is in line for much of a regression unless he hits some very bad luck.
The pen was very good last year, and to think of how could it could be if Soriano bounces back, and Joba returns to form. Countdown until the 6th inning? Joba, Soriano, D-Rob, Mariano is quite the quartet to navigate through at the end of games.
I'm sorry, but i completely disagree with with the thought that he can be a late inning go to guy. The Yankees are a team built to go to the playoffs every year. You can't have a closer who loads the bases against good teams, cause those teams will get to you. Robertson was great last year, and i think he was a key to the Yankees bullpen success last year. You can't put him in the closer role though, especially with a team that has world series aspirations every year. His value is at an all time high, if anything, now is the time to trade him. There will never be another Mo, but the Yankees can't afford somebody with such a high walk ratio to close out games.
I mean it's all a question of whether he can adapt to a new role if he's put there. But I agree that he's not an ideal closer–too high a walk rate, and the HR/FB% is very worrisome. But he's a high strikeout guy who can work out of a jam well, and I don't see that changing. If he can tighten up his control and keep the GB% high, then I think he could sustain a high level of production. That's pretty much what I'm trying to say.
Gabe:
I began writing a response to your take on Robertson's season and anticipating his next. I like what you did but have some points of contention. The response became fairly lengthy, though it should ultimately be a constructive conversation. Is your email address available? Feel free to email me. Thanks!
Oh, sure that sounds great. My email is glezra(at)esleyan(dot)edu. Send it over, I'm excited to see it.
I read your response and I really liked it. Thanks so much for taking the time to write that! The only reason I haven't responded yet is because I haven't had time to write a proper, thought out message (though I agree with most of what you said!).
I like your first post. Thanks for contributing!
I tend to see writers/bloggers/posters always make the claim that “so-and-so’s past numbers don’t suggest they can keep this up.”
For example, you talk about how his LOB% is 10% higher than his career average. His career is fairly short. One might expect large fluctuations year-to-year when he only has 4 years experience.
There are plenty of players that could fit the moulding of “Oh, he is performing outside of his career stats, he’ll return back to normal.” What if “good” is his new normal?
Now, I’m not saying Robertson can keep up his ridiculous peripherals. They are god-like. But it CAN be dangerous to use “he’ll regress” on a younger player.
Incidentally, this is very similar to what Michael (above) wrote to me. And I totally agree. The idea that I had in the article was not to suggest that there is some mean to regress to, but rather that he has transformed himself into the type of pitcher who might be able to sustain some of his peripherals, despite the fact that some of them do seem a bit too good.
The point about sample size is a very good one though, especially with young relievers like DRob.
1st of all don't call him DRob, he is HOUDINI !! & he will have an amazing season again! That's why they call him Houdini!