Girardi’s new RISP plan

7 thoughts on “Girardi’s new RISP plan

  1. John

    How much could this be due to how the defensive and pitching mentality changes for the opposing team in these positions? I mean they would really be on their toes with 2 or 3 men in scoring position wouldn't they? Defenses change positions depending on base runners, who is at bat, the score of the game, who's pitching. There are just so many different factors that contribute to each of these stats that it's mind boggling.

    Also, couldn't this partly be a result of having a TON of men in scoring position? Have the Yankees had more men in scoring position than other teams over the course of this season?

    All in all, I agree that this stat will regress to the mean at the end of the season.

    • BrienJackson

      "How much could this be due to how the defensive and pitching mentality changes for the opposing team in these positions? I mean they would really be on their toes with 2 or 3 men in scoring position wouldn't they? Defenses change positions depending on base runners, who is at bat, the score of the game, who's pitching. There are just so many different factors that contribute to each of these stats that it's mind boggling. "

      At some point that all gets wrapped in the luck factor though. After all, you're only "perfectly positioned" if the hitter does, in fact, hit it to your fielders, and though you can play the percentages in a certain situation, you obviously can't know ahead of time where the ball is going to be put in play.

      "Also, couldn't this partly be a result of having a TON of men in scoring position?"

      I don't think so, no. That would make sense if we were talking about the raw number of runners left in scoring position, but the rate states for the batters shouldn't be affected by how many attempts there are. If anything, more attempts should lead to more normalizing of these numbers.

    • jay_robertson

      Almost the opposite – with another team, their numbers may be skewed by SSS. Ex – I doubt if the As or Padres have had nearly as many ABs when the bases are loaded – but the Yankees have had tons of them. Yet with all those opportunities, the NYY have the lowest % of hits with bases loaded.

      We can hope for regression, but for the Yankees to get back to where they were last year, they'll have to hit something around .600 with the bases loaded for the next 2 months. That works for me, but I'm not going to count on it.

    • John

      Thanks for the replies guys. It's definitely an interesting discussion. It will be interesting to see how this all ends up at the end of the season.

      It does bring to mind the question that with how well the Yankees are playing now and their current record (tied for tops in the AL), is RISP a meaningless stat?

    • Rex

      3 men in scoring position??

      • John

        Haha. Good point Rex. That could never happen. Though with the way the Yanks hit homers, maybe it should be up to 4.

  2. jay_robertson

    Well – there are so many numbers, and so many ways to play the game. The Yankees load the bases so often that their failures with the bases loaded happen on an almost daily basis.

    WWOR put up a small graphic in passing last night that should put that in perspective – I was surprised that no one pointed it out, but I guess that was because it muddled their story – Yankees fail RISP.

    Before Alex's historic grand slam last night, the Yankees had the LOWEST hitting percentage with the bases loaded – last place, horrible, right? Yet, at the same time, they were also tied for FIRST in the number of grand slams this season. ! I had to stop the dvr and stare for a bit, before the information processed. So – we are faced with a Yankees team that has had a horrible time converting with the bases loaded – BUT – at the same time, they have converted as many or more than any other team in MLB.

    Now I see why Joe isn't horribly worried. Even a slight regression towards league average and the team will be scoring enough runs to give even Freddy a win. Cool.

Comments are closed.