Hope you're right. But ya know, if a team were to, say, win one game of a series by 13-3, and then lose three by two runs or less, they loser of the series would still win Run Differential contest.
I sure hope that's what they use when they decide who advances in the playoffs. Not those pesky old school wins and losses.
Of course, it's not unthinkable that the O's could tear it up and get a positive run differential in the next couple of weeks to justify their position. The season's not over yet…
they've been hounded for this all season, largely because they have been on the wrong side of blowout losses. look at their record in games decided by more hen seven runs. i believe that since the all star break, they have a positive run differential, and they have been on fire until hitting oakland (sound familiar). if your looking for a reason to not be scared of them, then enjoy run differential, what ever helps you sleep at night. if they win more games then the yanks however, they are still going to win the division.
I agree with the prognostic value of run differential, however there is such a thing as being lucky, and as the great sage of New Jersey has so wisely noted, I'd rather be lucky than good. While it would be nice to think that luck always evens out over the course of a year, history has shown that it's just not true. I prefer to peg my hopes on the Weaverian values of good pitching and 3 run homers.
This article is a load of baloney. There is no analysis, just assertions. The Orioles have been bucking the trend all year, and keep winning games. They aren't winning because of luck. Everyone knows that a good bullpen makes up for a bad run differential, and the O's have a great bullpen. Also, the O's, like the Yankees, hit home runs. Nothing turns games like home runs, and the O's generate alot of offense from Home Runs. This also ignores one key issue, the O's are clearly a better team now than they were in April. A few blowouts here and there will kill a run differential. Maybe the O's have had some timely hitting, but you don't win this many games through luck alone. Any team that hits for power and has a great bullpen will contend.
One thing to consider is which pitchers are responsible fo rthe negative run diferential? (In other words: which pithcers are terrible?) And, are they still on the team? If they have been replaced by better pitchers, then run differntial actually means very little at this point.
Also, in terms of individual pithcers, is run differential evenly spread out or not? Jim Johnson, for example, gave up 11 of his 21 runs in two terrible outings. So although his apparent responsibility for run differential is X, the details reveal that he's been better than that.
None of that matters when playoffs start. Ask the Red Sox of 2011…. oh wait, they didn't even make the postseason despite +138(!) run differential