On Monday, E.J. discussed recent work published by Bill Petti at FanGraphs. For over a decade, we’ve tried to best objectify a part of baseball that Bill James‘ failed to address with his Pythagorean Expectation. Using his method, we use runs scored and run allowed to estimate the amount of games a team should have won and lost. With a big enough sample size, the Pythagorean Expectation has been wildly successful, but that doesn’t mean it’s perfect.
Earlier this year, Petti posted an article on FanGraphs to help inspire quantifying consistency. How would this affect Pythagorean win-loss records? The idea is that, a team would prefer a player hit one time in three at bats for three games, rather than getting three hits in three at bats one game and then go hitless over the next two games. While the three hits in one game help a team tremendously in that one game, they will fail contribute in the next two games.… Click here to read the rest