Last season, I went through the five big draft prospect rankings and created a consensus ranking that was more accurate than I expected when compared to the actual draft. With only five sources, we won’t get anything close to what’s possible with mass crowdsourcing, but the fact is that there is little hope in predicting the MLB draft.
Not many people know enough about these players, which is why I stuck with just these five sources. I took Baseball Prospectus’ top 200 (of 300) rankings, Baseball America’s top 200 (of 500), ESPN’s top 100 (of 100), MLB.com’s top 200 (of 200), and Scout.com’s top 150 (of 291). I tried to grab the top 200 prospects when I could, but Keith Law’s list at ESPN only went to 100 and Kiley McDaniel’s list had some ranking issues after 150. You’ll also notice in the spreadsheet below that some of the rankings are blacked out, and that’s because these lists are behind a paywall. You’ll have to get an ESPN Insider or Baseball Prospectus subscription if you want to see the specific list.
As I mentioned, last year’s consensus list was more accurate than I expected. Specifically, for the Yankees, Judge was ranked 24.2nd (went 32nd) overall, Jagielo 25.6 (went 26th), and Clarkin 31.4 (went 33rd). Unfortunately, the Yankees don’t have a pick until the 55th overall. Considering their history of picking high school players, they’re looking at guys like Mac Marshall, Cameron Varga, Alex Verdugo, Milton Ramos, Jakson Reetz, Matthew Railey, and Joe Gatto. With just a second round pick, they’ll likely pick the best available high schooler on the board. The draft is obviously not as exciting as it was last year, but the Yankees do have a good position in the second round to take their typical big bonus high school player.