You guys know that workload concern thing I’ve been on with Adam Warren and Dellin Betances, from way back before anybody else was really thinking about it? Yeah, I think it could be starting to surface now.
Warren’s Monthly ERA Splits: April- 1.93, May- 1.62, June- 4.97, July- 5.79
Betances’ Monthly K Rate Splits: April- 43.4%, May- 45.9%, June- 37.9%, July- 31.7%
Obviously falling to a K rate that’s still above 30% is far less severe of a drop-off than a ballooning ERA, but we’re talking about 2 very different types of pitchers. Their level of fatigue, whatever it may be, could be manifesting itself in different ways. Hitters are making more and better contact against Betances this month than in any other month. He’s given up runs in consecutive appearances for the first time this year. They’re getting to Warren both by swinging and holding the bat. His K rate in July is the lowest of the season, his BB rate is the highest, and he’s been far more hittable since the start of June.
Last night was an extreme example, and as always this analysis comes with the aforementioned small sample size warning. Relievers’ numbers are heavily affected by 1 bad outing in those small samples and that should not be discarded here. Warren and Betances are both having terrific years and the overall numbers support that. The most recent numbers and the trends, however, are not as encouraging, nor are the IP totals both guys remain on pace for (Warren 80+, Betances 97+). That heavy workload from the first half of the season may be starting to really weigh on these guys, and that’s not a good omen for the Yankees’ postseason hopes.