E.J. Fagan been blogging about Yankee baseball since 2006. He lives and works in Washington, DC.

Author Archives: EJ Fagan

MLB Run Scoring Decline Part 1: It’s Not About The Bullpens in 3 Charts

Last week, I posted a graph showing the history of MLB run scoring since 1946. The graph showed a steady decline in run scoring since it peaked in 2000, including a fairly precipitous drop over the last 4 years.

The most common thing, other than the exit of PEDs, that I’ve been hearing from commentators trying to explain the drop has been the growth of ‘power bullpens’ or ‘specialized bullpens.’ Generally, they’ll point to relievers throwing 96 coming out in the 7th inning, and talk about how that just didn’t happen a few years ago. Up until I started looking at the evidence, I believed that this was a big explanation for the decline in run scoring.

But not so much. Let’s start with RP usage:

This chart could be a post on its own. It’s pretty cool to watch relief usage grow over time. After four decades of growth, the starter/reliever shares of innings stabilized. 2014′s usage patterns are not significantly different from 2000′s.…

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Chart: MLB Run Scoring Since 1946

I have only one short piece of commentary to add to this, but I’m a big enough baseball geek to just stare at this chart and think about the possibilities:

Here’s the one piece of commentary I’d like to offer: How far does the current trend in run scoring go? NL run scoring (the better barometer, since the DH changed AL run scoring substantially) is pointed in the direction toward the Deadball Era. Will it keep going and bottom out that low? We’ll see. Personally, I think it will if MLB doesn’t change the rules.

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One Quarter of the Season of Yankee Hitting in Two Charts

It feels like the season just started yesterday, but we’ve played 25% of the 2014 season so far. It’s a good time to measure the Yankee hitters against the rest of the American League. How are they doing?

First, the hitters:


The Yankees have done a good job of limiting the damage at their weak positions (2b, SS) and pulling ahead at their best positions (1b, 3b, OF). The one exception being at catcher, which has somehow become the 3rd best-hitting position in the AL (behind 1b and DH), despite downright horrible production by Brian McCann.

WAR is a difficult stat to use through 1 quarter of the season due to small sample sizes on defense, so take this next chart with some skepticism. Yankee hitters by WAR and playing time so far:


Can you see Carlos Beltran‘s WAR? Nope, because he is sitting at -0.1. The Yankees could definitely use the real Carlos back in the lineup, but the one they’ve seen so far is just not worth the poor defense.…

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Updated: MLBAM Has iTunes Remove Fan Podcasts from Directory, Including the IIATMS Podcast

I did not notice it until Stacey sent an email around, but I received this email this morning:

Screen Shot 2014-05-07 at 11.06.01 AM

Presumably, any podcast with team names in it were put on some ridiculous hit list by some incredibly stupid MLBAM employee, and given to iTunes. However, it’s unclear exactly what the criteria was, because Aaron Gleeman’s Gleeman and the Geek podcast was also taken down.

Rest assured, the podcast is still available on our publishing service, and embedded here on the blog. You can grab our RSS feed here.

We will absolutely speak more about this on the podcast tonight, but I’d like to add one quick thought right now: This is an incredibly stupid move by Major League Baseball. Someone over there just does not understand what makes their game a multi-billion dollar industry. Our podcast (and blog) is a passion project that makes no real money, provides free advertising for the New York Yankees and Major League Baseball, and (we hope) helps keep thousands of passionate Yankee fans engaged in the game they love.…

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Among AL Contenders, Yankees Among the Healthiest Out of Spring Training

Spring training statistics are so irrelevant that it is counterproductive to even look at them most of the time. Even doing so with full knowledge of their irrelevance threatens confirmation bias. Spring training is about trying new things, getting into playing shape, and tightening screws. With a few exceptions, the only thing that I really...

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Does Pitch Framing Make Brian McCann the Yankee MVP?

Baseball defense is hard to measure. Catcher defense is even harder. There are a lot of different aspects of catcher defense, including:

  1. Controlling the running game
  2. Actually fielding the ball
  3. Preventing passed balls and wild pitches
  4. Pitch framing and umpire psychology
  5. Game-calling and pitcher psychology

For the longest time, #1 was all we looked in stats like WAR. #2 a comparatively small part of the game while also being difficult to measure. #5 is anyone’s guess. Some work has been on #3, but I’m not sold on it yet. That leaves us with #4: getting umpires to call balls as strikes, and strikes as strikes.

Measuring pitch framing is actually pretty easy. We have Pitch/Fx data about where a ball ended up. We have a good idea of where the strike zone should be. Therefore, we can count up pretty large sample sizes of called strikes that should be balls, and called balls that should be strikes. Do the math, and you know how many more strikes a catcher was able to call versus the average.…

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Top Ten Young Latin American Yankee Prospects

It’s difficult to keep track of young IFA prospects. The Latin American pipeline is paramount to the future of the MLB Yankees. Somewhere, on some team’s DSL team, the next Robinson Cano or Mariano Rivera is playing baseball. History suggests that the higher profile, big money signings are less important than the dozens of small-to-midsize signings that rarely find their way even into a Baseball America roundup of IFA news. Trying to figure out what 16 year-old players will be major league baseball players is a giant crapshoot.

My instinct is that this group of players, particularly the top-4, are more talented than previous generations of Yankee IFAs, although they lack the presence of an automatic blue chip guy like Jesus Montero or Gary Sanchez. A similar list circa 2008 or so would go something like this: Jesus Montero, Jose Tabata, Abe Almonte, Jairo Heredia, Marcos Vechionacci, Carlos Urena, Eduardo Nunez, Zoilo Almonte, Prylis Cuello, and Manuel Banuelos.

Here are ten players to watch:

1.

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AL Run Scoring Decreased Again in 2013 to the Lowest Level in Decades

AL run scoring was way down in 2013. Batters scored just 4.33 runs per game, their lowest level since 1992 [chart updated for added lusciousness]:

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I find this this graph amazing. Except for a brief period in the late 80s, run scoring hasn’t been this low since Reggie Jackson and Ron Guidry were winning World Series. A .275/.339/.437 hitter in 2006 was equivalent to a .256/.320/.404 hitter in 2013.

That’s crazy! I don’t think that I am the only baseball fan that looks at a stat line and makes an intuitive judgment. When I first started paying attention to OBP, a .300 OBP was unacceptable, even for a middle infielder. Now, its just barely below average. A player with the same batting line as an average AL hitter in 2006 is now very valuable. We all need to adjust our expectations.

Why has run scoring decreased? A lot of people have theories. BABIPs haven’t changed much. HR/Fly is down from its peak in the late 90s, but is still significantly elevated from the late 80s.…

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