Let’s revisit some of the key ones:
|2 year||Red Sox||248||1533||656||166||1365||3.82||3.85|
That includes the additions of Lackey and Vazquez to the teams. It’s worth noting that the FIP figure is far more important than ERA, as it tends to be a much more accurate predicter of future ERA….than past ERA is. Odd, but true. This includes Buchholz as the Sox’ #5, and Joba as the Yankees’ #5.
Another look below–blue is better, red is worse. I’ll go further and note that the most important number in this is either the 2Yr FIP or the 4 Yr/3Yr FIP–I’d actually lean toward the 2 year (and not just because the Yankees handily win all five matchups by that category). Looks pretty clear to my eyes which rotation is stronger.
|Boston||2Yr FIP||2Yr ERA||4Yr (3Yr) FIP||4Yr (3Yr) ERA|
|NYY||2Yr FIP||2Yr ERA||4Yr (3Yr) FIP||4Yr (3Yr) ERA|
Even past the flat statistics, let’s ask this question: Why on Earth is the Sox rotation so steady when they’ve got Matsuzaka and Buchholz penciled in as the #4 and #5 starters?…