This year, these are two very different teams. Boston no longer has the fearsome lineup it boasted in the Manny-Papi era. Now, the Red Sox scare you more with their arms than their bats. No doubt, their starting rotation of Josh Beckett, Jon Lester, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Clay Buchholz and new addition John Lackey is more than a match for the Yankees staff of CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Andy Pettitte, the returning Javier Vazquez and the still-developing Phil Hughes.
Really? No doubt? Look, I know I clearly lean towards my hometown Yankees, so I’m not going to go so far (in this post) as to say it’s no doubt that the Yankees starting rotation is better than the Red Sox rotation. I’ll simply put the numbers in front of you, and you can make the determination yourselves.
|Boston||2Yr FIP||2Yr ERA||4Yr (3Yr) FIP||4Yr (3Yr) ERA|
|New York||2Yr FIP||2Yr ERA||4Yr (3Yr) FIP||4Yr (3Yr) ERA|
FIP, in its most basic description, is a fielding independent version of ERA. It’s supposed to be used the same as ERA, except with the understanding that it does its best to accurately identify the contributions of the pitcher, independent of his team’s efforts. It is also a much better tool for predicting future ERA than past ERA is. Red is bad, blue is good–and you can see that objective analysis of the two rotations doesn’t paint nearly as rosy a picture for the Red Sox as a lot of people think. If anything, this tilts towards the Yankees. Continue reading I keep waiting for someone to yell “April Fools!”