Breakout Candidate: Miguel Andujar

[caption id="attachment_71837" align="aligncenter" width="600"]Andujar 2014 Courtesy of Shane Roper/MiLB.com[/caption]

If I had to pick one prospect to have a break out (defined as being rated a top-50 prospect in all of baseball a year from now) 2015 season, it would be Miguel Andujar.

Andujar was one of the most notable Yankee July 2nd signings in 2011. He spent most of his age 17 and 18 seasons working out at the Yankee facility in Tampa. Some success the second time around with the GCL Yankees (.323/.368/.496 batting line in a small sample) earned him an aggressive promotion to Charleston to start 2014, where he was the 4th youngest player in the South Atlantic League.

At first glance, the numbers don’t look great: .267/.318/.397 with a solid 15.7% strikeout rate. But I think a deeper dive reveals a lot of good news. Here are his splits and park-adjusted rates:

Park adjusted batting line: .279/.328/.420 (.362 wOBA)
Vs. LHP: .188/.211/.250 Vs. RHP: .295/.355/.449
Home: .250/.296/.362 Away: .281/.337/.427
First Half: .212/.267/.335 19.4 K% Second Half: .319/.367/.456 14.9 K%
Those splits should be music to all of our ears. They scream the profile of a talented but inexperienced prospect who found himself during the 2014 season, and check all the boxes. Young hitters tend to struggle against left-handed hitters, because they don’t see many of them. They improve as they gain experience. And Charleston is a brutal place to hit for power as a right-handed hitter.

Top that off with an above-average projection on defense, lots of power projection left in his growing body, and baseball’s new premium on right-handed power, and Andujar starts looking like a real stud.

What kind of 2015 season would land him in the top-50? I think something like his second half line: .319/.367/.456 and a late July promotion to Double-A would do it. Baseball America already ranked him #10 in a deep system this year, so Andujar is well regarded by people watching closely. Continue reading Breakout Candidate: Miguel Andujar

Top Ten Young Latin American Yankee Prospects

It’s difficult to keep track of young IFA prospects. The Latin American pipeline is paramount to the future of the MLB Yankees. Somewhere, on some team’s DSL team, the next Robinson Cano or Mariano Rivera is playing baseball. History suggests that the higher profile, big money signings are less important than the dozens of small-to-midsize signings that rarely find their way even into a Baseball America roundup of IFA news. Trying to figure out what 16 year-old players will be major league baseball players is a giant crapshoot.

My instinct is that this group of players, particularly the top-4, are more talented than previous generations of Yankee IFAs, although they lack the presence of an automatic blue chip guy like Jesus Montero or Gary Sanchez. A similar list circa 2008 or so would go something like this: Jesus Montero, Jose Tabata, Abe Almonte, Jairo Heredia, Marcos Vechionacci, Carlos Urena, Eduardo Nunez, Zoilo Almonte, Prylis Cuello, and Manuel Banuelos.

Here are ten players to watch:

1. Luis Severino, 20, RHP

Severino qualified as an “old” Latin American signing by inking just before his 18th birthday for just over $200,000. Baseball America rated him the #9 Yankee prospect this year, and 2nd best pitcher (Behind Ian Clarkin) in the organization. While I think you’re crazy to take either over Manuel Banuelos, that ranking should be considered high praise for an unheralded mid-dollar IFA with just 17 innings above rookie ball. He’s got a mouth-watering scouting report: great control, two solid-or-better offspeed pitches, and a fastball that sits in the mid-90s. His stat line reflected that scouting report this season: 44 innings between the GCL and Charleston with a 2.45 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, and just 1 HR allowed. If you wanted to pick a sleeper to break out in 2013 and become not only the #1 Yankee prospect, but also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball, he’s it.

2. Abiatal Avelino, 19, SS

Avelino isn’t far behind Severino. A $300,000 signing, Avelino flew under the radar until his U.S. debut this year. Between rookie ball and Staten Island, he hit .303/.381/.399. Early scouting reports expect him to stick at shortstop, hit decently well, and steal some bases. He’s a ‘baseball sense’ type of prospect, who scouts like above and beyond its tools.

3. Miguel Andujar, 19, 3b

Miguel Andujar was the top Yankee IFA signing in 2011. The Yankees gave him $750,000, and quick pushed him to North America. A lot of people were excited that he could become the next Sanchez/Montero to come out of the system. Then, he had a terrible professional debut, hitting .232/.288/.299. He improved in 2013, hitting .323/.368/.496 with solid reviews on defense. It seems like every 3rd base prospect you read about fits the, “Strong all around hitting skills, solid defensive skills, average athlete, 20-25 HR” type, and Andujar is no exception.

4. Luis Torrens, 18, C

Torrens was the top Yankee IFA in 2012. He signed for $1.3 million. BA had him as the #2 IFA of his class, and the top Yankee in the GCL. He only converted to catcher after signing last July, and it is unclear if his permanent home is behind the plate. In a sense, he comes from the same tradition as Gary Sanchez and Jesus Montero: a bat-first defensive work in progress. However, while Jesus Montero and Gary Sanchez were considered power hitters right out of the gate, Torrens doesn’t even show home run power in batting practice. He’s definitely a strong IFA-type prospect, but he’s missing something before you can call him a real blue chipper. We have no idea where he is going to end up defensively (although he is more athletic than the other Yankee catchers), and he isn’t yet a standout on offense.

5. Leonardo Molina, 17, CF

I’d be lying if I said knew much about Molina. BA had him at #5 in the 2013 IFA class, and the Yankees devoted nearly their entire budget ($1.4 million, out of $1.9 million total) to signing him. He’s a big, strong center fielder with plus-plus speed. Reports put his hitting skills at average-or-better. He is not related to the Molina brothers.
Continue reading Top Ten Young Latin American Yankee Prospects