Open Thread: Revisiting Preseason Standings Predictions

With one third of the season in the books, I thought it would be a nice time to revisit the standings that the TYA staff projected before the season. The composite standings are listed below, with individual projections done by William, Larry, and myself available at this link. And here are the current standings, courtesy of Baseball-Reference: The projection fares well in the AL East, where the lone discrepancy is the ordering of the Yankees and the Red Sox, and the NL East, where flipping the Marlins and Braves would reconcile the two sets of standings. The NL West also Continue reading Open Thread: Revisiting Preseason Standings Predictions

Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

SG over at RLYW has posted his initial CAIRO projected standings for the 2011 season, with the caveat that it is really, really early to be drawing significant conclusions from the data. Regardless, they should provide a decent guide for where teams stand relative to one another at this point, so click through to view the standings and then come back here for some takeaways: 1) The AL East should be a dogfight again, although the Red Sox (98 wins) are clearly ahead of the Yankees (89) and Rays (87) at this point. However, it is important to note that Continue reading Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

PECOTA: Adjusted Standings

The other day, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projected standings for 2010 and, needless to say, Yankee fans were not pleased to see their beloved Bombers penciled in for third place (despite an impressive 93-69 record). However, as SG at Replacement Level Yankee pointed out upon PECOTA’s release, the numbers involved to construct the standings were off (an issue of human error, it seems, on Baseball Prospectus’ part). Realizing their mistake, BP has issued the according adjustments (h/t to RAB) and, consequently, we now have altered projections. Here’s the original, for comparison’s sake: Now, here are PECOTA’s adjusted numbers: Clearly, Continue reading PECOTA: Adjusted Standings