Open Thread: Revisiting Preseason Standings Predictions

With one third of the season in the books, I thought it would be a nice time to revisit the standings that the TYA staff projected before the season. The composite standings are listed below, with individual projections done by William, Larry, and myself available at this link.

And here are the current standings, courtesy of Baseball-Reference:

The projection fares well in the AL East, where the lone discrepancy is the ordering of the Yankees and the Red Sox, and the NL East, where flipping the Marlins and Braves would reconcile the two sets of standings. The NL West also only has one discrepancy in terms of ordering, but it is the Diamondbacks being in first rather than last, which is obviously a significant miss. The NL Central projection is currently mistaken, but is close enough at this point that it could still match at some point down the road, and the AL West has four teams within 3 games and is too tight to judge right now.… Click here to read the rest

Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

SG over at RLYW has posted his initial CAIRO projected standings for the 2011 season, with the caveat that it is really, really early to be drawing significant conclusions from the data. Regardless, they should provide a decent guide for where teams stand relative to one another at this point, so click through to view the standings and then come back here for some takeaways:

1) The AL East should be a dogfight again, although the Red Sox (98 wins) are clearly ahead of the Yankees (89) and Rays (87) at this point. However, it is important to note that the Yankees and Rays are not finished products, while the Red Sox look largely complete. Adding Andy Pettitte, a bullpen arm, and a bench bat would likely put the Yankees in the 93 win range and in the conversation for a division title if they got a few breaks. Even without adding anybody, they should be good enough to compete for a wild card spot, which allows Brian Cashman some cushion before he needs to address the starting rotation.… Click here to read the rest

PECOTA: Adjusted Standings

The other day, Baseball Prospectus released its PECOTA projected standings for 2010 and, needless to say, Yankee fans were not pleased to see their beloved Bombers penciled in for third place (despite an impressive 93-69 record). However, as SG at Replacement Level Yankee pointed out upon PECOTA’s release, the numbers involved to construct the standings were off (an issue of human error, it seems, on Baseball Prospectus’ part). Realizing their mistake, BP has issued the according adjustments (h/t to RAB) and, consequently, we now have altered projections.

Here’s the original, for comparison’s sake:

Now, here are PECOTA’s adjusted numbers:

Clearly, there are some dramatic differences here with regards to team placement. The Yankees are still on track to own a 93-69 record, however, that’s good enough to win the AL East (although PECOTA projects a tie with Boston). Notice that the runs scored/allowed numbers are markedly depressed across the board when viewed relative to the earlier projections. The Rays are subsequently in third place now, rather than first, as they seemed to be the biggest beneficiary of BP’s earlier mathematical wrinkles.… Click here to read the rest