Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

It’s projection season around the baseball blogosphere. So, why not look at some of the projections out there and see what that gives us in terms of WAR. For this exercise, I’ll be using the Bill James projections, which some guy we know compiled here. To attempt to get the WARs, I’ll use...

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Open Thread: Revisiting Preseason Standings Predictions

With one third of the season in the books, I thought it would be a nice time to revisit the standings that the TYA staff projected before the season. The composite standings are listed below, with individual projections done by William, Larry, and myself available at this link.

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RLYW Releases 2011 Diamond Mind Projected Standings

Before each season, SG of RLYW uses the Diamond Mind program to simulate the upcoming season, using the statistics provided by various projection systems. The 2011 simulations were released this morning, and I encourage you to visit the site to check them out. If you go to RLYW, you will find individual standings for...

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Being Prudent With Projections

In Matt’s post yesterday, he added a “disclaimer” regarding projections such as Marcel, PECOTA, CAIRO, and ZiPS upon my request:

Projections assume performance by players will tend to regress towards the mean, such that there will be a smaller spread between good and bad performances. Therefore, some players at the top end may be sold...

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Projecting AJ Burnett

With the troubles that the Yankees have at the back of their rotation, A.J. Burnett has become a key figure in the Yankees’ pitching plans. He is currently slated to be the #3 starter, meaning that another season like the one he had in 2010 (186.2 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.83 FIP) would...

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Projecting the Bullpen

Yesterday, I projected the potential starting rotation by WAR so I’ll do the same thing with the bullpen today. However, it’s near impossible to tell just how many guys will be pitching in the bullpen and at what times. In fact, it’s possible that some of the guys I projected in the rotation will get...

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Projecting the Rotation

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second.

The Yankees had eight men...

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Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

SG over at RLYW has posted his initial CAIRO projected standings for the 2011 season, with the caveat that it is really, really early to be drawing significant conclusions from the data. Regardless, they should provide a decent guide for where teams stand relative to one another at this point, so click through to...

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WAR Projections: Brett Gardner

To say Brett Gardner had a surprising 2010 would be an understatement. Behind a fantastic walk rate of 13.9%, Gardner ended up with a .383 OBP and a .358 wOBA. All of that led to a 123 wRC+. Combine that with a 21.9 UZR, and you get a fantastic 5.4 fWAR.

There are people that doubt...

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