Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

It’s projection season around the baseball blogosphere. So, why not look at some of the projections out there and see what that gives us in terms of WAR. For this exercise, I’ll be using the Bill James projections, which some guy we know compiled here. To attempt to get the WARs, I’ll use this spreadhseet CC Sabathia: CC’s projected for 235 innings of 3.30 FIP ball. That, per the spreadsheet, would give us a WAR of 6.5. Shocking. Ivan Nova: James pegs Nova for a 4.11 FIP in 183 innings, leading to a projected WAR of 3.1. I’d be beyond Continue reading Fun with WAR projections: Pitcher edition

Open Thread: Revisiting Preseason Standings Predictions

With one third of the season in the books, I thought it would be a nice time to revisit the standings that the TYA staff projected before the season. The composite standings are listed below, with individual projections done by William, Larry, and myself available at this link. And here are the current standings, courtesy of Baseball-Reference: The projection fares well in the AL East, where the lone discrepancy is the ordering of the Yankees and the Red Sox, and the NL East, where flipping the Marlins and Braves would reconcile the two sets of standings. The NL West also Continue reading Open Thread: Revisiting Preseason Standings Predictions

RLYW Releases 2011 Diamond Mind Projected Standings

Before each season, SG of RLYW uses the Diamond Mind program to simulate the upcoming season, using the statistics provided by various projection systems. The 2011 simulations were released this morning, and I encourage you to visit the site to check them out. If you go to RLYW, you will find individual standings for each of the projection systems, as well as two posts that combine the various projection systems to get a single set of projected standings. The projected AL standings are below, and the usual caveats about projections should be considered before lending too much meaning to these Continue reading RLYW Releases 2011 Diamond Mind Projected Standings

Being Prudent With Projections

In Matt’s post yesterday, he added a “disclaimer” regarding projections such as Marcel, PECOTA, CAIRO, and ZiPS upon my request: Projections assume performance by players will tend to regress towards the mean, such that there will be a smaller spread between good and bad performances. Therefore, some players at the top end may be sold short, while those at the bottom end may see a statistical bump. To clarify, what this means is that if the mean batting average in the system is .270, the spread of projected performances might range from .240-.300, even though in real life, you are Continue reading Being Prudent With Projections

Projecting AJ Burnett

With the troubles that the Yankees have at the back of their rotation, A.J. Burnett has become a key figure in the Yankees’ pitching plans. He is currently slated to be the #3 starter, meaning that another season like the one he had in 2010 (186.2 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.83 FIP) would make it difficult for the Yankees to mount a playoff charge. It is important to note that 2010 was his worst season, and that all of the projection systems currently available have him bouncing back to some degree in 2010: CAIRO: 187 IP, 4.77 ERA, 4.50 FIP Bill Continue reading Projecting AJ Burnett

Projecting the Bullpen

Yesterday, I projected the potential starting rotation by WAR so I’ll do the same thing with the bullpen today. However, it’s near impossible to tell just how many guys will be pitching in the bullpen and at what times. In fact, it’s possible that some of the guys I projected in the rotation will get significant innings in the bullpen rather than in the rotation. To avoid guess work, I’ll just be calculating the WAR of guys we KNOW will be in the bullpen and comparing their personal marks to those of last year. The guys we KNOW will be Continue reading Projecting the Bullpen

Projecting the Rotation

Without a hint of hesitation, I would say that the starting rotation is the biggest hole the 2011 Yankees will have. It consists of one bonafide ace/workhorse/gamer/whatever buzzword there is for pitchers in CC Sabathia. After that, there’s no shortage of question marks. Let’s rewind to last year for a second. The Yankees had eight men take the hill to start a game in 2010: Sabathia, Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova, Sergio Mitre, Dustin Moseley, and Javier Vazquez. Sparing the long reminiscence, we could call 2010 a mixed bag in terms of success for the Yankee starters. Continue reading Projecting the Rotation

Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

SG over at RLYW has posted his initial CAIRO projected standings for the 2011 season, with the caveat that it is really, really early to be drawing significant conclusions from the data. Regardless, they should provide a decent guide for where teams stand relative to one another at this point, so click through to view the standings and then come back here for some takeaways: 1) The AL East should be a dogfight again, although the Red Sox (98 wins) are clearly ahead of the Yankees (89) and Rays (87) at this point. However, it is important to note that Continue reading Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

WAR Projections: Brett Gardner

To say Brett Gardner had a surprising 2010 would be an understatement. Behind a fantastic walk rate of 13.9%, Gardner ended up with a .383 OBP and a .358 wOBA. All of that led to a 123 wRC+. Combine that with a 21.9 UZR, and you get a fantastic 5.4 fWAR. There are people that doubt Gardner can do that again. I’m going to cautiously agree. To expect a guy with as little a track record as Gardner to put up a 5.4 fWAR season again is expecting a lot. But, then again, a .358 wOBA is definitely do-able for Continue reading WAR Projections: Brett Gardner