RLYW Releases 2011 Diamond Mind Projected Standings

Before each season, SG of RLYW uses the Diamond Mind program to simulate the upcoming season, using the statistics provided by various projection systems. The 2011 simulations were released this morning, and I encourage you to visit the site to check them out. If you go to RLYW, you will find individual standings for each of the projection systems, as well as two posts that combine the various projection systems to get a single set of projected standings. The projected AL standings are below, and the usual caveats about projections should be considered before lending too much meaning to these results.

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As you can see, the Yankees project to make the postseason by a comfortable margin, with the closest contender for the wildcard being the Rays, 6 full games behind the Yankees. I expect all three teams to be in the mix for the division crown well into August, and would not be incredibly surprised by any order of finish among those three clubs.… Click here to read the rest

Some of the best Yankee-related links I've read all year

Apparently no one told the Yankee blogosphere that January is the deadest time of the baseball year, because over the last 10 days or so there has been some spectacular research and analysis going on at many of my favorite Yankee blogs. In no particular order:

Our pal SG recently posted his Extremely Early CAIRO 2011 MLB Projected Standings. Also at RLYW Jonathan has a fantastic analysis detailing the fall and rise of Joba’s fastball, featuring some cumulative seasonal horizontal and vertical break data that I’ve been desperate to obtain and that doesn’t appear to be available for free anywhere. And SG also has some fun with Baseball Musings’ lineup generator.

Over at It’s About the Money, Stupid, in a post I wish I had written, Mark L. Smith put together a spectacular look at the Yankees’ seeming decline in plate discipline in 2010.

Moshe at TYU has a brilliant takedown of the holier-than-thou sportswriters who blindly refuse to vote any player into the Hall of Fame whose name has been attached to steroids despite not having any proof of guilt; and also a thoughtful look at one of the Yankees’ darker postseason moments.… Click here to read the rest

Early Projection From RLYW: 89 Wins, Wild Card

SG over at RLYW has posted his initial CAIRO projected standings for the 2011 season, with the caveat that it is really, really early to be drawing significant conclusions from the data. Regardless, they should provide a decent guide for where teams stand relative to one another at this point, so click through to view the standings and then come back here for some takeaways:

1) The AL East should be a dogfight again, although the Red Sox (98 wins) are clearly ahead of the Yankees (89) and Rays (87) at this point. However, it is important to note that the Yankees and Rays are not finished products, while the Red Sox look largely complete. Adding Andy Pettitte, a bullpen arm, and a bench bat would likely put the Yankees in the 93 win range and in the conversation for a division title if they got a few breaks. Even without adding anybody, they should be good enough to compete for a wild card spot, which allows Brian Cashman some cushion before he needs to address the starting rotation.… Click here to read the rest

2011 CAIRO projections: Yankee offense

Stat geeks rejoice! SG has released the first iteration of the 2011 CAIRO projections for the Yankee offense.

Unsurprisingly they’re more conservative than Bill James‘ projections, although in most cases not dramatically so, except for Jesus Montero.

As discussed last week, James has Montero posting one of the best seasons for a Yankee rookie in history, with a .376 wOBA, while SG has a far more realistic-sounding .337.

Here’s the full projection table for the likely starting lineup for the 2011 Yankees:

Like James, CAIRO also sees a bounceback year for Derek Jeter, with a far more palatable .290/.360/.406//.342 line. Despite two straight years of mid-.370s wOBAs, both systems have Nick Swisher losing .015-plus points of wOBA. However, keep in mind that CAIRO takes data from a player’s five previous seasons (weighted accordingly), which means that Swisher’s abysmal 2008 (.325 wOBA) is likely weighing his projections down. Also, for what it’s worth, CAIRO pegged Swisher for a .349 wOBA prior to the 2010 season, and I bet Swish outperforms his projection yet again.… Click here to read the rest

What was that about the Yankees coming in third?

Oh happy day. SG’s 2010 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout for both the AL and NL was posted yesterday. For those unfamiliar, this is an aggregate of five noteworthy projection systems, run 1,000 times each for a total of 5,000 iterations.

The Yankees unsurprisingly project to be the best team in baseball, averaging 96 wins and 66 losses. Eat it, PECOTA. They also project to score the most runs in the Majors — 895 — and should have a 63% chance of making the playoffs.

Is it Opening Day yet?… Click here to read the rest

The 2010 Yankees are going to be pretty good

OK, so Randy Winn obviously isn’t going to destroy the Yankees’ season. As I said to Moshe and Joe last night, I was mostly annoyed because I wanted Johnny Damon back, although I’m still not crazy about the Winn signing. But whatever — it is what it is, and there’s no changing that.

Moving on, SG posted extremely early 2010 MLB CAIRO-projected standings the other day, and while we obviously can’t read too much into it, it’s still pretty awesome to see the Yanks projecting as a 916-run-scoring, 102-win team with a 57% chance to win the division before a single game is even played, even with Randy Winn and his .384 OPS against lefties last season Betemiting up the place (couldn’t help myself there, but I promise I’ll stop ragging on Winn, at least for the time being). As SG mentions, we probably need to dock the Yankees a few wins and add a few to Boston’s tally, but even so I’m pretty sure an eight-game gap on paper is the widest margin of victory I’ve ever seen in a CAIRO preseason projection.… Click here to read the rest

The Yankeeist Interview with Replacement Level Yankees Weblog's SG

For this latest edition of the Yankeeist Interview series, I am once again pleased to bring you a stalwart of the Yankee blogosphere, SG of Replacement Level Yankees Weblog.

I found RLYW — which was founded by Larry Mahnken, who is a hell of a baseball analyst himself — shortly after discovering Bronx Banter in 2004, and have been reading the site on a daily basis ever since. As Larry began posting with less frequency as time wore on, eventually the day-to-day posting was taken over by SG.

During the last five seasons RLYW has been a revelation, essentially responsible for the transformation of the way I enjoy the Yankees. I no longer just watch baseball games, I now mentally statistically analyze every single pitch of every at-bat, armchair managing the hell out of every move along with the rest of the sabermetrically-inclined portion of the Yankee fanbase.

SG has been at the forefront of advanced Yankee statistical analysis, even creating his own projection system, CAIRO, which has routinely been more accurate than several of the more well-known systems.… Click here to read the rest