The Disaster Factor: Nathan Eovaldi

usa-today-8540592.0 Things could have gone better for Nathan Eovaldi last night. 11 batters, nine hits, eight runs. His ERA rose from 4.13 to 5.12 on the year. How worried should we be?

Turning to Eovaldi's last couple of starts, one might not think things are terribly concerning. In his previous four starts, he gave up 8 ER over 24 innings. However, he was lucky the damage wasn't more severe.

Over those four outings previous to Miami, Eovaldi had some incredibly fortunate strand rates, and with the exception of his 4.2-inning performance, hitters were getting unlucky at the plate with their BABIP.

Game IP ER H BB LOB% BABIP
vs WSH 6/10 7.0 3 8 1 79.0% .292
vs LAA 6/05 (W) 5.1 1 4 4 87.5% .235
@ OAK 5/30 4.2 3 11 0 72.7% .500
vs KC 5/25 (W) 7.0 1 8 1 90.0% .333

The luck he's had with stranding runners isn't anything new - his mark for the entire season is 73%. So, the two wins he picked up against LA and Kansas City could have very much gone the other way, and Eovaldi could be sitting at 3-2, at best.

The other trend that's been prominent this season is Eovaldi's ineffectiveness on the road. He's 2-2 with a 6.31 ERA in 7 starts on the road compared to 3-0 with a 3.89 at home. I suppose that can comfort some - that at the very least you can count on him in the Bronx. And, the Yankees will be at home a good amount in the coming months.

In the end, I certainly wonder about how the next seven starts will go for Eovaldi. Will he stop putting on baserunners at this high rate? It's not a disaster - not yet.

Disaster Factor: 6/10

Bullpen/AAA Threat Level: Blue

(Photo: Brad Penner - USA Today)