It's PECOTA day over at Baseball Prospectus and the 2016 projections for teams and players have been released. The Yankees' projected record is 85-77 which would put them fourth in the American League East. PECOTA projects the Tampa Bay Rays as the AL East division winners with last year's winner Toronto finishing third.
As for some individual projections, here are the projected starting nine (obviously not in batting order):
- Brian McCann: .243/.315/.436 with 26 home runs and 80 RBI
- Mark Teixeira: .236/.328/.452 with 27 home runs and 79 RBI
- Starlin Castro: .274/.313/.411 with 11 home runs and 51 RBI
- Chase Headley: .258/.340/.405 with 15 home runs and 63 RBI
- Didi Gregorius: .253/.309/.379 with 11 home runs and 55 RBI
- Brett Gardner: .256/.329/.389 with 12 home runs and 56 RBI
- Jacoby Ellsbury: .274/.330/.413 with 15 home runs and 61 RBI
- Carlos Beltran: .258/.322/.445 with 20 home runs and 70 RBI
- Alex Rodriguez: .243/.333/.416 with 22 home runs and 74 RBI
More team predictions from PECOTA: Runs scored - 725 Runs Against - 686 Team slash line - .252/.322/.409
Just a note about PECOTA: Sometimes it's scarily accurate and other times it's way off. Take for instance last year. It predicted the Royals would only win 72 games. The Royals, as everyone knows, won their division (95 wins) and they went on to win the World Series last year. This year PECOTA apparently didn't learn its lesson and has KC finishing last in the AL Central with a record of 76-86. So please don't "freak out" over the projections for the Yankees in the comments. It's all fun.