Jeff Sullivan of Fangraphs rolled out his 2016 American League projections yesterday and he has the Yankees going 82-80. Here's his explanation:
The best position player is projected for 3.0 WAR, and the rotation is filled to the brim with injury question marks. The Yankees’ greatest asset is what seems like maybe the best bullpen of all time, but then we still don’t know how much time Aroldis Chapman will have to miss, and just in terms of statistical performance this year’s bullpen will have a difficult time out-performing last year’s bullpen. The Yankees won 87 games. The Yankees would love to once again win 87 games.
I'm not sure I agree with only 82 wins. My belief is that the Yankees, barring any catastrophic injury plagues, could win as many as 87 again. But who knows? I'm not psychic.