Quick Post: The Yankee Bullpen Can Nearly Eliminate Cleveland's Edge in Game 2

Corey Kluber will probably win, and deserve, the AL Cy Young award. His 2.25 ERA is pretty awesome. CC Sabathia is a great pitcher, but his 3.69 ERA doesn't really compare. The Yankees appear to be huge underdogs in Game 2. 

Except, I'm not sure that's true. As great as Corey Kluber is, he's still not really the equal of an elite major league bullpen. Let's assume that CC Sabathia pitches 4 innings, Chad Green pitches two, and Kahnle, Robertson and Chapman each pitch one inning. On the Cleveland side, let's assume that Kluber pitches 7 innings and Allen pitches two (I'm assuming Miller is unavailable). What is the expected ERA of each team?

For the Yankees: (3.69 * 4 + 1.83 * 2 + 2.59 + 1.84 + 2.21) / 9 = 2.78 ERA

For the Indians: (2.25 * 7 + 2.94 *2) / 9 = 2.40

(I'm assuming Aroldis Chapman is at his career 2.21 ERA, not his season ERA)

The Indians have an edge, but a small one. The Yankees can push it a little further by stretching one more inning out of the bullpen instead of Sabathia. They can pick up a little more if Kluber is pushed out after six innings, and someone like Bryan Shaw or Nick Goody has to pitch an inning.

The Yankees are at a disadvantage tonight, but a smaller one than people are expressing.